Download or read book Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles written by Fabio Canova and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book International Trade and the Business Cycle written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-04-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balances of the Group of Seven countries.

Download or read book Handbook of International Economics written by G.M. Grossman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1995-12-13 with total page 904 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reference accords recognition to the recent revolution in macroeconomics wrought by imperfect competition. Grossman and Rogoff (Princeton U.) present chapters by two dozen contributors on two prime areas of research interest: international trade theory and policy (e.g. strategic trade patterns and policies, the relationship between trade and technological progress), and open economy macroeconomics and international finance (covering such topics as exchange rates, foreign lending, and policy coordination). The volume commences with Krugman's overview of the positive theory of international trade, and concludes with analyses of sovereign debt. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Download or read book NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004 written by Richard H. Clarida and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading American and European economists discuss monetary and fiscal policy from a global macroeconomic perspective and analyze the implications of European integration; cutting-edge research presented in a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Download or read book Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade written by Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting rms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.

Download or read book Common Shocks Common Dynamics and the International Business Cycle written by Marco Centoni and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Open Economy Macrodynamics written by Toichiro Asada and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-06-17 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first part of this book, we treat interacting and small open economies. We do this from an historical perspective, starting from the Classical model of the gold standard and the specie-flow mechanism and aim to show there that the Dornbusch IS-LM-PC approach, with or without rational expectations, can still be considered as a (if not the) core contribution to contemporaneous open economy macrodynamics, also on the level of structural macroeconometric model building. In the second part we then extend this analysis to the incorporation of more disequilibrium on the real markets, prominent further feedback channels of the macrodynamic literature and integrated macromodel building. We start from the closed economy, consider large open economies in a fixed exchange rate system, small open economies subject to high capital mobility, and finally two large interacting economies like the USA and Euroland. Our macrofounded approach extends and integrates non-market clearing traditions to macrodynamics and can be usefully compared with the New Keynesian approaches which are generally rigorously microfounded, but often much more limited in scope in capturing full market and agent interactions.

Download or read book International Trade and Business Cycles written by Marianne Baxter and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Virtually all economies experience recurrent fluctuations in economic activity that persist for periods of several quarters to several years. Further, there is a definite tendency for the business cycles of developed countries to move together--there is a world component to business cycles. This paper argues that capital accumulation and international capital flows are central to understanding world trade and business cycles. In particular, fluctuations in net exports and the current account are shown to be dominated by trade in capital goods. The paper develops a two country model of international trade within which capital accumulation and international investment flows play a central role. We explore the channels by which technology shocks and fiscal shocks are transmitted to the domestic and foreign economies, and discuss the extent to which these results are sensitive to individuals' opportunities for international trade in financial assets. Overall, we find that the models capture many of the salient features of international business cycles. However, it has proven consistently difficult to generate sufficient comovement across countries in labor input and investment. The paper concludes with a discussion of fruitful directions for future research.

Download or read book Globalisation written by Joachim Scheide and published by Duncker & Humblot. This book was released on 2015 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the integration of goods, capital and financial markets has progressed on a global scale. The 66th annual meeting of the Association of German Economics Research Institutes (ARGE) focused on the question of national macroeconomic policies in an environment of increasingly interdependent business cycles.In the first paper of the volume, Koll gives a general introduction to the history of business cycles co-movement. Koll also highlights the responsibility of national governments as global players.The first section deals with the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Flaig, Sturm and Woitek conclude that, while the oil shocks of the 70s induced strong co-movements in business cycles, German unification led to a divergence of national cycles. The paper by Fichtner concentrates not only on business cycle synchronization over time but introduces an analysis on the transmission mechanisms at work. Fichtner finds that common shocks and technology spillovers account for most of the co-movement in output.The second section explains some of the individual transmission mechanisms in greater detail. Horn examines how business confidence carries over from one country to another and finds evidence that positive expectations in the US strengthen German confidence and that this relationship has become stronger over time. Schröder quantifies the role of the transmission of stock market investors' confidence in the relationship between US and German GDP. He distinguishes between the pure investor expectation effect and the direct influence of stock markets on real GDP and finds a direct causal impact.The third section concentrates on economic policy and its implications. Kuhn analyzes the transmission of monetary policy shocks and finds the transmission mechanism via interest rate co-movements to be more important than that via trade and the exchange rate mechanism. Middendorf and Radmacher-Nottelmann explore the importance of multinationals in the transmission of economic business cycles. Macro evidence suggests a synchronization of investment behavior. Micro evidence, however, reveals only a weak impact of multinationals on business cycle synchronization.This AEQ supplement should be essential reading for anyone, whether academic or practitioner, with an interest in future macroeconomic policy options in an increasingly integrated economic environment. InhaltsverzeichnisInhalt: W. Koll, Economic Policy in the Light of New Forms of International Business-Cycle Convergence - G. Flaig / J.-E. Sturm / U. Woitek, International Synchronization of National Business Cycles? - M. J. M. Neumann, Comment - F. Fichtner, Germany and the European Business Cycle. An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model - B. Lucke, Comment - G. A. Horn, US Outlook and German Confidence. Does the Confidence Channel Work? - C. Dreger, Comment - M. Schröder, Interactions between U.S. and German GDP: The Role of Stock Markets - H. Entorf, Comment - A. Kuhn, The International Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for Selected OECD Countries - V. Clausen, Comment - T. Middendorf / N. A. Radmacher-Nottelmann, Business Cycle Transmission and MNE Activity. Macroeconomic Patterns and Microeconomic Evidence - A. Jungmittag, Comment

Download or read book Development Macroeconomics written by Subrata Ghatak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-03-09 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This brings together relevant papers on macro-, monetary and development economics from many eminent economists from all over the world who are closely associated with the works of Late Professor Anita Ghatak of Greenwich University, UK who was an expert in the field of macroeconomics and econometrics. It comprises a variety of articles which are highly significant in the analysis of macroeconomic policies both in developed and in-transition economies. There are several main topics covered in this book such as the test of new theories of economic growth and convergence and the use of dynamic and rigorous time-series econometric methods for analysing money demand functions in transition economies. This work details the meaning of economic development and the comparative analysis of the recent growth of India and China, also the modelling of the macroeconomics of poverty reduction and the monetary policy rules in transition economies. Lastly, the research analyses the Asian Financial crisis, the impact of migration on investment and economic growth and international consumption patterns.

Download or read book International Trade and the Business Cycle written by Mr. Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balances of the Group of Seven countries.

Download or read book Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy written by Matthew J. Kotchen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-01-24 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy in the United States. Rebecca Davis, J. Scott Holladay, and Charles Sims analyze recent trends in and forecasts of coal-fired power plant retirements with and without new climate policy. Severin Borenstein and James Bushnell examine the efficiency of pricing for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. James Archsmith, Erich Muehlegger, and David Rapson provide a prospective analysis of future pathways for electric vehicle adoption. Kenneth Gillingham considers the consequences of such pathways for the design of fuel vehicle economy standards. Frank Wolak investigates the long-term resource adequacy in wholesale electricity markets with significant intermittent renewables. Finally, Barbara Annicchiarico, Stefano Carattini, Carolyn Fischer, and Garth Heutel review the state of research on the interactions between business cycles and environmental policy.

Download or read book International Business Cycles and the ERM written by Michael J. Artis and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Development Macroeconomics written by Subrata Ghatak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-03-09 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The project brings together a number relevant papers on Macroeconomics of Economic Development from many eminent economists from USA,UK, India and China who are closely associated with the works of Late Professor Anita Ghatak

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration written by Marcus Kappler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-30 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.