Download or read book Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty written by J.K. Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the stochastic enviornment is as much important to the manager as to the economist. From production and marketing to financial management, a manager has to assess various costs imposed by uncertainty. The economist analyzes the role of incomplete and too often imperfect information structures on the optimal decisions made by a firm. The need for understanding the role of uncertainty in quantitative decision models, both in economics and management science provide the basic motivation of this monograph. The stochastic environment is analyzed here in terms of the following specific models of optimization: linear and quadratic models, linear programming, control theory and dynamic programming. Uncertainty is introduced here through the para meters, the constraints, and the objective function and its impact evaluated. Specifically recent developments in applied research are emphasized, so that they can help the decision-maker arrive at a solution which has some desirable charac teristics like robustness, stability and cautiousness. Mathematical treatment is kept at a fairly elementary level and applied as pects are emphasized much more than theory. Moreover, an attempt is made to in corporate the economic theory of uncertainty into the stochastic theory of opera tions research. Methods of optimal decision rules illustrated he re are applicable in three broad areas: (a) applied economic models in resource allocation and economic planning, (b) operations research models involving portfolio analysis and stochastic linear programming and (c) systems science models in stochastic control and adaptive behavior.

Download or read book Decision Modeling in Policy Management written by Giampiero Beroggi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last decade has experienced major societal challenges at the intersection of technological systems and policy making. Prevalent examples are the liberalization of energy and telecommunications markets, the public aversion towards nuclear power plants, the development of high-speed trains, the debates about global warming and sustainability, the development of intelligent vehicle systems, and the controversies concerning the location of waste depositories, airports, and energy systems. These challenges, coupled with the call from industry for a systems-engineering oriented approach to policy analysis, motivated Delft University of Technology to launch the first European School of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis. and Management (SEPA). The purpose was to educate engineering oriented policy analysts in bridging the gap between engineering systems and policy decision making processes, both for the public and private sector. Up to now, more than 500 first-year students and 30 Ph.D. students have enrolled in the program. In 1993, I set up a class called Quantitative Methods for Problem Solving which had to address the most relevant issues in decision making for policy management, such as linear and non-linear optimization, multiattribute utility theory, multicriteria decision making, concepts from game theory, outranking relations, and probabilistic influence diagrams.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence written by David Heckerman and published by Morgan Kaufmann. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence contains the proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence held at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, 1993. The papers focus on methods of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty as applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI) and cover topics ranging from knowledge acquisition and automated model construction to learning, planning, temporal reasoning, and machine vision. Comprised of 66 chapters, this book begins with a discussion on causality in Bayesian belief networks before turning to a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic and forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory. Subsequent chapters explore trade-offs in constructing and evaluating temporal influence diagrams; normative engineering risk management systems; additive belief-network models; and sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. Automated model construction and learning as well as algorithms for inference and decision making are also considered. This monograph will be of interest to both students and practitioners in the fields of AI and computer science.

Download or read book Decision Processes by Using Bivariate Normal Quantile Pairs written by N. C. Das and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-07 with total page 661 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses equi-quantile values and their use in generating decision alternatives under the twofold complexities of uncertainty and dependence, offering scope for surrogating between two alternative portfolios when they are correlated. The book begins with a discussion on components of rationality and learning models as indispensable concepts in decision-making processes. It identifies three-fold complexities in such processes: uncertainty, dependence and dynamism. The book is a novel attempt to seek tangible solutions for such decision problems. To do so, four hundred tables of bi-quantile pairs are presented for carefully chosen grids. In fact, it is a two-variable generalization of the inverse normal integral table, which is used in obtaining bivariate normal quantile pairs for the given values of probability and correlation. When making decisions, only two of them have to be taken at a time. These tables are essential tools for decision-making under risk and dependence, and offer scope for delving up to a single step of dynamism. The book subsequently addresses averments dealing with applications and advantages. The content is useful to empirical scientists and risk-oriented decision makers who are often required to make choices on the basis of pairs of variables. The book also helps simulators seeking valid confidence intervals for their estimates, and particle physicists looking for condensed confidence intervals for Higgs–Boson utilizing the Bose–Einstein correlation given the magnitude of such correlations. Entrepreneurs and investors as well as students of management, statistics, economics and econometrics, psychology, psychometrics and psychographics, social sciences, geographic information system, geology, agricultural and veterinary sciences, medical sciences and diagnostics, and remote sensing will also find the book very useful.

Download or read book Decision Theory Models for Applications in Artificial Intelligence Concepts and Solutions written by Sucar, L. Enrique and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the goals of artificial intelligence (AI) is creating autonomous agents that must make decisions based on uncertain and incomplete information. The goal is to design rational agents that must take the best action given the information available and their goals. Decision Theory Models for Applications in Artificial Intelligence: Concepts and Solutions provides an introduction to different types of decision theory techniques, including MDPs, POMDPs, Influence Diagrams, and Reinforcement Learning, and illustrates their application in artificial intelligence. This book provides insights into the advantages and challenges of using decision theory models for developing intelligent systems.

Download or read book Uncertainty in Facility Location Problems written by H. A. Eiselt and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-09-20 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with an often-neglected feature of location problems, namely uncertainty, by combining two related fields: location theory and optimization. Written by leading researchers and practitioners in these fields, each chapter examines one aspect of the location process in different contexts, such as supply chains; location decisions under congestion; disaster management; design of resilient facilities; uncertainty in the health sector; and facility location in the retail sector under uncertainty. The book also addresses methodological aspects, such as chance-constrained approaches, heuristic algorithms, scenario approaches, and simulation. As such, it provides decision-makers with essential methods, tools and approaches to help them deal with these uncertainties. It is mainly intended for graduate students in the fields of operations research and logistics, as well as professionals in logistics and supply chain management.

Download or read book Mathematical Modeling and Computational Tools written by Somnath Bhattacharyya and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-04-20 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book features original research papers presented at the International Conference on Computational and Applied Mathematics, held at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India during November 23–25, 2018. This book covers various topics under applied mathematics, ranging from modeling of fluid flow, numerical techniques to physical problems, electrokinetic transport phenomenon, graph theory and optimization, stochastic modelling and machine learning. It introduces the mathematical modeling of complicated scientific problems, discusses micro- and nanoscale transport phenomena, recent development in sophisticated numerical algorithms with applications, and gives an in-depth analysis of complicated real-world problems. With contributions from internationally acclaimed academic researchers and experienced practitioners and covering interdisciplinary applications, this book is a valuable resource for researchers and students in fields of mathematics, statistics, engineering, and health care.

Download or read book Agricultural Economics Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Integration of Machine Learning and Computer Simulation in Solving Complex Physiological and Medical Questions written by Nicole Y. K. Li-Jessen and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-08-01 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book State Estimation Planning and Behavior Selection Under Uncertainty for Autonomous Robotic Exploration in Dynamic Environments written by Georgios Lidoris and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2011 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Contemporary Perspectives in Data Mining written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by IAP. This book was released on 2021-01-01 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The series, Contemporary Perspectives on Data Mining, is composed of blind refereed scholarly research methods and applications of data mining. This series will be targeted both at the academic community, as well as the business practitioner. Data mining seeks to discover knowledge from vast amounts of data with the use of statistical and mathematical techniques. The knowledge is extracted from this data by examining the patterns of the data, whether they be associations of groups or things, predictions, sequential relationships between time order events or natural groups. Data mining applications are in business (banking, brokerage, and insurance), marketing (customer relationship, retailing, logistics, and travel), as well as in manufacturing, health care, fraud detection, homeland security and law enforcement.

Download or read book Multi UAV Planning and Task Allocation written by Yasmina Bestaoui Sebbane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-03-27 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multi-robot systems are a major research topic in robotics. Designing, testing, and deploying aerial robots in the real world is a possibility due to recent technological advances. This book explores different aspects of cooperation in multiagent systems. It covers the team approach as well as deterministic decision-making. It also presents distributed receding horizon control, as well as conflict resolution, artificial potentials, and symbolic planning. The book also covers association with limited communications, as well as genetic algorithms and game theory reasoning. Multiagent decision-making and algorithms for optimal planning are also covered along with case studies. Key features: Provides a comprehensive introduction to multi-robot systems planning and task allocation Explores multi-robot aerial planning; flight planning; orienteering and coverage; and deployment, patrolling, and foraging Includes real-world case studies Treats different aspects of cooperation in multiagent systems Both scientists and practitioners in the field of robotics will find this text valuable.

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Download or read book Dynamics of Civil Structures Volume 2 written by Hae Young Noh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-06 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamics of Civil Structures, Volume 2: Proceedings of the 41st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2023, the second volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of the Dynamics of Civil Structures, including papers on: Structural Vibrations Structural Health Monitoring Human-Structure Interaction Vibration Control and Mitigation Innovative Sensing for Structural Applications Smart Structures and Automation Modal Identification of Structural Systems Dynamics of Buildings, Bridges, and Off-Shore Platforms

Download or read book Dynamics of Civil Structures Volume 2 written by Kirk Grimmelsman and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamics of Civil Structures, Volume 2: Proceedings of the 39th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2021, the second volume of nine from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of the Dynamics of Civil Structures, including papers on: Structural Vibration Humans & Structures Innovative Measurement for Structural Applications Smart Structures and Automation Modal Identification of Structural Systems Bridges and Novel Vibration Analysis Sensors and Control

Download or read book Optimal Operation of Integrated Energy Systems Under Uncertainties written by Bo Yang and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2023-09-06 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal Operation of Integrated Energy Systems Under Uncertainties: Distributionally Robust and Stochastic Models discusses new solutions to the rapidly emerging concerns surrounding energy usage and environmental deterioration. Integrated energy systems (IESs) are acknowledged to be a promising approach to increasing the efficiency of energy utilization by exploiting complementary (alternative) energy sources and storages. IESs show favorable performance for improving the penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and accelerating low-carbon transition. However, as more renewables penetrate the energy system, their highly uncertain characteristics challenge the system, with significant impacts on safety and economic issues. To this end, this book provides systematic methods to address the aggravating uncertainties in IESs from two aspects: distributionally robust optimization and online operation. - Presents energy scheduling, considering power, gas, and carbon markets concurrently based on distributionally robust optimization methods - Helps readers design day-ahead scheduling schemes, considering both decision-dependent uncertainties and decision-independent uncertainties for IES - Covers online scheduling and energy auctions by stochastic optimization methods - Includes analytic results given to measure the performance gap between real performance and ideal performance