Download or read book Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rationalexpectations Models written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A solution method and an estimation method for nonlinear rational expectations models are presented in this paper. The solution method can be used in forecasting and policy applications and can handle models with serial correlation and multiple viewpoint dates. When applied to linear models, the solution method yields the same results as those obtained from currently available methods that are designed specifically for linear models. It is, however, more flexible and general than these methods. For large nonlinear models the results in this paper indicate that the method works quite well. The estimation method is based on the maximum likelihood principal. It is, as far as we know, the only method available for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates for nonlinear rational expectations models. The method has the advantage of being applicable to a wide range of models, including, as a special case, linear ,models. The method can also handle different assumptions about the expectations of the exogenous variables, something which is not true of currently available approaches to linear models.
Download or read book Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectation Models written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents new, computationally efficient algorithms for solution and estimation of nonlinear dynamic rational expectations models. The innovations in the algorithms are as follows: (1) The entire solution path is obtained simultaneously by taking a small number of Newton steps, using analytic derivatives, over the entire path; (2) The terminal conditions for the solution path are derived from the uniqueness and stability conditions from the linearization of the model around the terminus of the solution path; (3) Unit roots are allowed in the model; (4) Very general models with expectational identities and singularities of the type handled by the King-Watson (1995a,b) linear algorithms are also allowed; and (5) Rank- deficient covariance matrices that arise owing to the presence of expectational identities are admissible. Reasonably complex models are solved in less than a second on a Sun Sparc20. This speed improvement makes derivative- based estimation methods feasible. Algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation and sample estimation problems are presented.
Download or read book Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models written by Mr.Douglas Laxton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-09-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development and use of forward-looking macro models in policymaking institutions has proceeded at a pace much slower than predicted in the early 1980s. An important reason is that researchers have not had access to robust and efficient solution techniques for solving nonlinear forward-looking models. This paper discusses the properties of a new algorithm that is used for solving MULTIMOD, the IMF’s multicountry model of the world economy. This algorithm is considerably faster and much less prone to simulation failures than to traditional algorithms and can also be used to solve individual country models of the same size.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 37 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-01-01 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of the IMF’s multiregion econometric model (MULTIMOD). The study highlights that an older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging.
Download or read book Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models written by P. Fisher and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Download or read book Linear Rational Expectations Models written by Charles H. Whiteman and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models written by L. Broze and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.
Download or read book Econometric Decision Models written by Josef Gruber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 629 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains a refereed selection of revised papers which were originally presented at the Second International Conference on Econometric Decision Models, University of Hagen (FernUni versitat). The conference was held in Haus Nordhelle, a meeting place in the mountainous area " Sauerland" , some 50 kilometers south of Hagen, on August 29 - September 1, 1989. Some details about this conference are given in the first paper, they need not be repeated here. The 40 papers included in this volume are organized in 10 "parts", shown in the table of contents. Included are such "fashionable" topics like "optimal control", "cointegration" and "rational expec tations models". In each part, the papers have been arranged alphabetically by author, unless there were good reasons for a different arrangement. To facilitate the decision making of the readers, all papers (except a few short ones) contain an abstract, a list of keywords and a table of contents. At the end of the proceedings volume, there is a list of authors. More than ten years ago, I began to organize meetings of econometricians, mainly called "seminar" or " colloquium". One major purpose of these meetings has always been to improve international cooperation of econometric model builders (and model users) from "the East" and "the West". Unprecedented changes to the better have taken place recently ("perestroika"). For a large fraction of participants from the Soviet Union, the 1989 conference was the first conference in a Western country.
Download or read book Computational Economic Systems written by Manfred Gilli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The approach to many problems in economic analysis has changed drastically with the development and dissemination of new and more efficient computational techniques. Computational Economic Systems: Models, Methods & Econometrics presents a selection of papers illustrating the use of new computational methods and computing techniques to solve economic problems. Part I of the volume consists of papers which focus on modelling economic systems, presenting computational methods to investigate the evolution of behavior of economic agents, techniques to solve complex inventory models on a parallel computer and an original approach for the construction and solution of multicriteria models involving logical conditions. Contributions to Part II concern new computational approaches to economic problems. We find an application of wavelets to outlier detection. New estimation algorithms are presented, one concerning seemingly related regression models, a second one on nonlinear rational expectation models and a third one dealing with switching GARCH estimation. Three contributions contain original approaches for the solution of nonlinear rational expectation models.
Download or read book Computational Econometrics written by Charles G. Renfro and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication contains a substantial amount of detail about the broad history of the development of econometric software based on the personal recollections of many people. For economists, the computer has increasingly become the primary applied research tool, and it is software that makes the computer work.
Download or read book Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model written by Alan A. Powell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of this monograph is to give a detailed account of a contemporary, state-of-the art, macroeconometric model that is regularly used for policy advising, and for forecasting in commerce and industry.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1986-01-01 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines potential strengths and weaknesses of various versions of the target zone approach and confronts operational outlines potential strengths and weaknesses of various versions of the target zone approach but also confronts operational. Target zones differ from a pure system of clean floating in that the authorities are permitted (and indeed are likely) to intervene in the exchange market, and, more generally, are encouraged to take a view on the desirable level of the exchange rate. The hard version of target zones shares some of the attributes of the existing European Monetary System (EMS). Unlike the EMS, hard target zones neither entail a formal commitment for exchange rate intervention nor there is analog to the credit facilities of the EMS. The soft version of target zones differs from existing IMF surveillance. Whether measured in real or nominal terms, bilateral or effective terms, and the short-run variability of exchange rates over the period of managed floating has been high—indeed, significantly higher than during the previous Bretton Woods system.
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-12 with total page 2744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics Volumes 2A and 2B surveys major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues, including fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies to deal with crises, unemployment, and economic growth. As this volume shows, macroeconomics has undergone a profound change since the publication of the last volume, due in no small part to the questions thrust into the spotlight by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008. With contributions from the world’s leading macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and assessment of its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade Builds upon Volume 1 by using its section headings to illustrate just how far macroeconomic thought has evolved
Download or read book Analyses in Macroeconomic Modelling written by Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as well as much development on existing themes such as modelling expectations and policy rules. This edited volume focuses on those areas which have undergone the most significant and imaginative developments and brings together the very best of modelling practice. We include specific sections on (I) Solving Large Macroeconomic Models, (II) Rational Expectations and Learning Approaches, (III) Macro Dynamics, and (IV) Long Run and Closures. All of the contributions offer new research whilst putting their developments firmly in context and as such will influence much future research in the area. It will be an invaluable text for those in policy institutions as well as academics and advanced students in the fields of economics, mathematics, business and government. Our contributors include those working in central banks, the IMF, European Commission and established academics.
