Download or read book Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia and Potential Policy Responses written by John Sanders Miller and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: VTrans2035, Virginia's statewide multimodal transportation plan, requires 25-year forecasts of socioeconomic and travel activity. Between 2010 and 2035, daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) will increase between 35% and 45%, accompanied by increases in population (28% to 36%), real household income (50%), employment (49%), transit trips (75%), and enplanements (104%). Of the 2.27 to 2.87 million additional Virginians forecast by 2035, most (1.72 to 2.34 million) will settle in one of four planning district commissions (PDCs). These PDCs, and their expected population increases, are George Washington Regional (0.25 to 0.28 million), Richmond Regional (0.33 to 0.41 million), Hampton Roads (0.31 to 0.41 million), and Northern Virginia (0.83 to 1.23 million). Virginia will likely see the number of people age 65 and over double from 1 million at present to 2 million in 2035. Four potential policy responses to these forecasts are given in this report: (1) encourage increased density at select urban locations to reduce CO2 emissions; (2) use cost-effectiveness as a criterion to select project-level alternatives for achieving a particular goal; (3) identify policy initiatives to serve increased demographic market segments, and (4) quantify the economic harm of general aviation airport closures. These policy responses are not the only ones feasible but were selected because they necessitate the interagency coordination that is the premise of VTrans2035. The first two policy responses demonstrate limited but real promise. The first may reduce DVMT by 1.1% to 6.4% of the baseline 2035 DVMT forecast, for a reduction of 1.507 million metric tons of CO2 annually. Yet DVMT is affected to a greater degree by factors over which decision makers exert less influence than with density. For example, the 2035 baseline DVMT decreases by 7% if an alternative population forecast is assumed; 10% to 65% if real household income remains relatively flat; and 49% to 82% if fuel costs increase to $10/gal by year 2035. Thus, the best estimates of travel activity are highly sensitive to underlying assumptions regarding economic conditions, and the report accordingly documents, for each desired forecast, a range of possible values. The analysis of the second policy response found that the cost-effectiveness of plausible alternatives in a hypothetical case study varied by a factor of 3. By extension, this finding suggests that an ability to choose project alternatives based solely on each alternative's ability to meet a single goal or a limited number of goals--and without constraint by funding source (e.g., highway or transit, capital or operations)--can increase the cost-effectiveness of a project. The remaining two policy responses suggest that consideration of diverse alternatives, such as programs to help older persons continue driving, may be productive as suggested in some literature. Because the report does not contain the data necessary to evaluate the impacts of these programs, the report merely identifies such programs and demonstrates how they could be considered given the demographic changes forecast to occur between now and 2035.

Download or read book Potential Socioeconomic Forecasts in Support of VTrans written by Haritha Bhairavabhatla and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In support of VTrans, this report summarizes potential changes in population, employment, and household income that are forecast from various sources and identifies potential transportation implications. Statewide, Virginia's population is forecast to grow 24% to 33% from 2017-2045, with four regions clustered along the I-95 corridor (roughly the planning district commissions [PDCs] of Northern Virginia, George Washington, and Richmond Regional) and the eastern portion of the I-64 corridor (Hampton Roads) accounting for 83% to 85% of this growth. Employment is also forecast to grow statewide from 18% to 44%, with the same PDCs accounting for 80% to 87% of new jobs by 2045. Household income is forecast to increase, in real dollars, by 25% to 38%. These forecasts do not account for unexpected shocks: a case study with a sudden arrival of a large employer (not anticipated in the original forecasts) suggests that the affected PDCs' 2045 forecasts for employment and population are increased by 3% and 6%, respectively. Virginia forecasts reflect the observation that uncertainty for employment forecasts is greater than that of population forecasts. Examination of two different forecast sources for 2017-2045 shows that the difference for expected population growth (9%) is smaller than the difference for expected employment growth (27%). Virginia historical data also show employment is more volatile than population: for all nine VDOT districts, average annual employment growth rates for the period 1975-2000 exceeded those for the period 2000-2017; the same was applicable for population (except for the case of the VDOT Lynchburg District). However, the average difference in the employment growth rates for these two periods (about 2.80%) was much larger than the average difference in the population growth rates (about 0.35%). These socioeconomic changes have the potential to affect the need for travel in Virginia. Although aggregate population and employment increases generally correspond to an increase in travel demand, the types of population and employment changes may affect how this demand is met. Virginia's population age 65+ is forecast to increase from 1.27 million to between 1.99 million and 2.26 million from 2017-2045. Although persons age 75+ are a relatively small percentage of the state's population at present (6%), this group is expected to grow by 104% to 150%, becoming 10% to 11% of the total state's population. This has implications for how travel is provided for seniors, affecting dimensions such as pedestrian facilities, support for aging in place, transit options, driving options, and demand for new technologies such as driverless vehicles. Employment growth is also uneven by sector; for instance, professional and technical services employment, which presently is associated with longer commute times than for most other employment, is expected to grow 31% to 61% from 2017-2045 (statewide), but this varies greatly by region (e.g., increases of 67% to 89% are forecast for Richmond Regional compared to increases of 27% to 34% for West Piedmont), suggesting uneven impacts in travel demand throughout Virginia.

Download or read book An Interim Update to the 2035 Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia written by John Sanders Miller and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In support of the update to Virginia's 2035 Statewide Multimodal Plan, this report provides an update to select socioeconomic forecasts initially made in 2009 based on a review of data from national sources and the literature. Mobility needs exist for diverse Virginia subpopulations, such as persons without access to a vehicle (6.3% of statewide households or 8.8% of the state's workforce); non-drivers (a group whose composition is changing, with recent decreases in the percentage of Virginians age 15-24 with a driver's license contrasted with increases in the percentage of females age 65 or older [65+] with a driver's license); persons age 65+ (e.g., in 2010, the number of Virginians age 65+ outnumbered those age 19 or younger in only 1 of Virginia's 21 regions; by 2035, this will be the case in 8 of Virginia's 21 regions); and persons protected by environmental justice regulations (e.g., the income of 17.3% of Virginians was below 150% of the poverty level for 2006-2010, and the minority population was 35.2% of Virginia's population in 2010). Subpopulations may also be defined by geography. Although a projected increase in fuel prices between 2010 and 2035 of 48% for autos and 50% for trucks is expected to reduce highway travel more than would be the case without a price increase, the increase in population that is expected based on 2010-2035 levels may offset this decrease; with a variety of assumptions including elasticity of demand, an expected congestion cost in urban areas approaches $5.7 billion based on delay and costs associated with excess fuel consumption. In non-urbanized areas, a rough order of magnitude estimate of the cost of delays, derived in this report, is $285 million at present. Geographical differences are apparent; notably, the largest group of workers by income using public transportation in the Northern Virginia region and, just to its south, the George Washington Regional Commission comprised those with an income of $75,000 or more; by contrast, in the Richmond and Hampton Roads regions, the largest group comprised workers with an income below $10,000. Another geographical difference is that the percentage of those who speak English less than "very well" varies by region, from 0.6% to 13.4%. Implications of these forecasts are noted. For example, because more than one-third of the population age 65+ has a disability compared with about 7% of the population under age 65, the increase in persons age 65+ suggests that the percentage of Virginians with disabilities may also increase. As another example, despite the relatively large costs of congestion in Virginia's urbanized areas, other sources suggest that crash costs may be approximately 2.4 times as large as these congestion costs. As a third example, ways to increase motorist and transit passenger comfort may merit exploration as a means to reduce the perceived cost of travel. Because these implications transcend regional boundaries, they may offer opportunities to garner consensus on some transportation improvements and thus are appropriate to consider in future planning efforts.

Download or read book Improving Socioeconomic Land Use Forecasting for Medium sized Metropolitan Organizations in Virginia written by Danielle Renée McCray and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Socioeconomic forecasts are the foundation for long range travel demand modeling, projecting variables such as population, households, employment, and vehicle ownership. In Virginia, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) develop socioeconomic forecasts for a given horizon year at a traffic analysis zone level., and the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) uses these forecasts as input to the four-step travel demand model system. This report identifies the socioeconomic forecasting practices currently used by four medium-sized Virginia MPOs, computes the accuracy of socioeconomic forecasts generated by one such MPO, and recommends practices for improving such forecasts. This research found that medium-sized Virginia MPOs are using similar techniques to forecast socioeconomic variables. These techniques are to (1) identify jurisdictional population control totals based on U.S. Census and Virginia Employment Commission data; (2) disaggregate population projections to the zonal level based on comprehensive plans, local knowledge, and historic trends; (3) apply historic ratios of households to population and autos to population to forecast households and autos; (4) use historic trends and local expertise to determine future employment; and (5) revise zone projections through coordination with local jurisdictions. Using a forecast that was developed for the Lynchburg region in 1981 with a horizon year of 2000, the study area percent error was computed as the difference between the forecasted and observed values for the entire study area. While the study area percent error for number of vehicles and employment was less than 10%, the study area percent errors for population and households were 48% and 14%, respectively. Two adjacent zones accounted for approximately 80% of the population error and 90% of the household error, and the error resulted because anticipated development therein did not materialize. The zone percent error is the average difference between forecasted and observed values for each zone. Population, households, and vehicles had similar zone percent errors of 61%, 65%, and 54% respectively, while the employment zone percent error was 154%. Four recommendations for improving forecasts are given. First, localities should provide updates to MPO or PDC staff as changes in land development occur, and such staff should perform socioeconomic forecasts more frequently than the current practice of every five years. . Second, MPOs should consider providing two sets of socioeconomic variables for the travel demand model: (1) the baseline forecast (which is the MPO's best estimate) and (2) the baseline forecast modified by some percentage that accounts for the possibility of forecast error. Third, best forecasting practices should be shared among MPOs through a user's group, a workshop, or some other forum where MPO and PDC staff will be in attendance. Fourth, VDOT should communicate these recommendations to MPO staff who are responsible for completing socioeconomic forecasts.

Download or read book How Might Virginia Age and Grow by 2040 written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of Virginia’s Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan for 2040, also known as “VTrans 2040,” requires the identification of population forecasts, employment forecasts, and changes in population-related factors that might influence future travel demand. The research documented in this report fulfills that requirement. Key findings are that Virginia’s population is forecast to grow over roughly a quarter century from a 2012 population of 8.2 million to a 2040 population of 10.5 or 11.7 million, depending on the forecast source. The 14% difference between these two population forecasts is a degree of uncertainty that would be expected given previous comparisons of actual and forecast populations. The forecast growth varies by age group: the number of people age 65+ is projected to almost double over this period, with the fastest growing cohort within this age group being those age 85+. The forecast growth varies by location, with 4 of Virginia’s 21 planning district commissions accounting for between 77% and 81% of the forecast growth from 2012-2040. Employment is forecast to grow by about 60% over this period. Changes in other population-related factors that influence travel demand include density (about one-half of Virginia’s growth from 2012-2040 is projected to be in areas that will by 2040 have a transit-compatible population density), the use of alternative fuel vehicles, and vehicle ownership (which is not expected to increase). These forecasts do not necessarily suggest a single policy response for all Virginia locations. For example, decreasing rates of licensure might suggest increased use of public transportation; however, this impact would presumably be less in areas with lower population density. As shown by the two sample stakeholder input exercises developed in Appendix D, a variety of responses to transportation policies is possible. Because knowledge of the forecasts noted in this report may help inform consideration of diverse transportation alternatives, it is recommended that the material available in the report continue to be shared with Virginia planners.

Download or read book Feasibility of Using Jobs housing Balance in Virginia Statewide Planning written by John Sanders Miller and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Code of Virginia (section 33.1-23.03) requires that the Statewide Transportation Plan include "quantifiable measures and achievable goals relating to ... job-to-housing ratios." Such ratios reflect jobs/housing balance, defined as an equivalence in the numbers of an area's jobs and area residents seeking those jobs. This report identifies planning policies based on jobs/housing balance, examines the impact of such balance on commuting, and demonstrates how to measure this balance using Virginia data. The research suggests that the Code requirement may be satisfied by using the ratio of jobs to labor force, as this ratio is highly correlated with the job-to-housing ratio (based on examining 1980, 1990, and 2000 data) and is computationally feasible, at the jurisdictional level, on an annual basis. Alternative approaches for satisfying the requirements of the Code are also described in the report; these alternative approaches require additional effort but may be productive in certain circumstances. A simple longitudinal model developed using changes in Virginia jurisdiction commute time from 1990 through 2000 estimates that the average impact of a given urban jurisdiction improving its balance by 20% is a reduction in commute time of about 2 minutes. This effect is evident only if several factors, such as the manner in which the urban region is defined, are carefully controlled. Otherwise, there is no significant impact of a change in jobs/housing balance on a given jurisdiction's commute time. This finding is within the wide range of impacts of jobs/housing balance noted in the literature.

Download or read book Public Roads written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Transport decisions in an age of uncertainty written by E.J. Visser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 653 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proceedings of the 3rd World Conference on Transport Research, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, April 1977

Download or read book Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Transportation Research Record written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book I 81 Corridor Improvement Study from the Tennessee Border to the West Virginia Border Tier 1 written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 892 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 990 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.

Download or read book Communities in Action written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 583 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the United States, some populations suffer from far greater disparities in health than others. Those disparities are caused not only by fundamental differences in health status across segments of the population, but also because of inequities in factors that impact health status, so-called determinants of health. Only part of an individual's health status depends on his or her behavior and choice; community-wide problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, inadequate housing, poor public transportation, interpersonal violence, and decaying neighborhoods also contribute to health inequities, as well as the historic and ongoing interplay of structures, policies, and norms that shape lives. When these factors are not optimal in a community, it does not mean they are intractable: such inequities can be mitigated by social policies that can shape health in powerful ways. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity seeks to delineate the causes of and the solutions to health inequities in the United States. This report focuses on what communities can do to promote health equity, what actions are needed by the many and varied stakeholders that are part of communities or support them, as well as the root causes and structural barriers that need to be overcome.

Download or read book Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Transportation Planning Techniques for Small Communities written by National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Download or read book NASA SP 7500 written by United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: