Download or read book SLAMM Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model Modeling of the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetland Habitats of San Diego County written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that eleven of the last twelve years ranked among the 12 warmest years in the record of global surface temperature (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013). The rising global temperature has increased water output from glaciers and ice sheets (Sloobe, Lindenbergh, & Ditmar, 2008) (Ewert, Groh, & Dietrich, 2012) and caused thermal expansion of the ocean (Bindoff, et al., 2007). These changes have ultimately raised the mean tide level globally, and new available data on the ice dynamics in Greenland and Antarctica have lead some to suggest the sea level rise will be as much as to 1.5 or 2 meters above current levels (Ewert, Groh, & Dietrich, 2012)(Luthcke, et al., 2006)(Titus & Narayanan, 1995). Natural coastal areas such as wetlands will be vulnerable to sea level rise of 1.5 or 2 meters (Glick, Clough, Polaczyk, Couvillion, & Nunley, 2013) (Galbraith, et al., 2002). In this study, a high resolution digital elevation model, which was created by combining available Light Detecting and Ranging (LIDAR) and the National Elevation Dataset, and the National Wetlands Database were used to run the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) in the coastal areas of San Diego County, San Diego Bay, and the Tijuana Estuary for a 1, 1.5, and 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, San Diego County salt marsh areas including transitional salt marshes make considerable gains countywide due to inundation of brackish marsh areas by 2100. In San Diego Bay, beach areas, brackish marshes, and tidal flat areas are reduced and salt marsh increase as a response to sea level rise. In Tijuana Estuary, ocean beaches, brackish marshes, swamps, and undeveloped dry land show significant reductions, while estuarine beaches and estuarine open water increase their areal cover. The study showed that sea level rise driven growth of salt marshes will expand the nesting grounds for the Belding's Savannah Sparrow and Light-footed Clapper Rail countywide. The inundation of estuarine beaches in San Diego Bay make it less suitable for California least tern and western Snowy Plover to nest, while the formation of estuarine beaches (because of the inundation of undeveloped lands) on the south side of the Tijuana Estuary make it more suitable for these same two species of birds. Tidal flats in the southern part of San Diego Bay become inundated by SLR making the Bay less suitable for foraging by shorebirds such as the Long-billed Curlew. Due to the implications of this research, it will beneficial to designate and protect areas where critical habitats that support threatened and endangered species will migrate to as current protected areas such as the San Diego Bay Wildlife Refuge become inundated as the sea level rises.
Download or read book Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California Oregon and Washington written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Niño, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.
Download or read book Southern California Coastal Water Research Project Annual Report written by Southern California Coastal Water Research Project and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Environmental Science in the Coastal Zone written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the dimensions of our scientific knowledge as it applies to environmental problems in the coastal zone. The volume contains 10 papers that cover different aspects of science, management, and public policy concerning the coastal zone. A consensus is presented on several key issues confronting science for developing a more holistic approach in managing this region's intense human activities and important natural resources.
Download or read book Modeling Wetland Response to Future Sea level Rise in the Pamlico and Croatan Sounds North Carolina written by Brent R. Gore and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coastal habitats are among the world's most vulnerable environments to climate change and are highly sensitive to the impacts of future SLR. During the course of this century sea-level rise (SLR) enhanced by global climate change will become a major issue affecting coastal wetlands. Predicted SLR in the future could have major impacts on estuarine systems and will likely force changes in wetland spatial extent, geographic location, and type. Coastal wetlands located along the Pamlico and Croatan Sounds in eastern North Carolina will undoubtedly be greatly affected by future SLR due to their large spatial extent and high vulnerability, and will need to be closely monitored and mapped to determine their future locations and rates of change, including erosion, accretion, and loss. Research assessing the impacts of future SLR on coastal wetlands is vital for determining ways to conserve and protect these natural resources. The use of GIS-based, ecological SLR modeling is essential in order to analyze and explore the potential habitat changes of coastal wetlands during long-term SLR. The purpose of this study is to determine the relative accuracy of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) in predicting wetland response to future SLR in the Pamlico and Croatan Sounds, North Carolina. SLAMM accuracy was determined by performing a model hindcast and outputs were compared to current wetland maps utilizing point and cell-based accuracy assessments, as well as various descriptive statistics. Accuracy results from model hindcasting were deemed acceptable to run model forecasts through 2100 using varying SLR scenarios. Future wetland change in both spatial extent and type were assessed using both quantitative and visual analysis. Model forecast results predict major changes within the study area, even devastating ones ecologically to wetlands and all interlinked habitats and ecological systems. Additional studies should be conducted using SLAMM utilizing hindcasting for calibration of model parameters and implementing higher-quality input data to yield better model outputs and accuracy.
Download or read book Application of Sea level Affecting Marshes Model SLAMM to Long Island NY and New York City written by New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Federal Scientists and Engineers written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sediment Accretion Rates and Metal Contamination of the Kendall Frost Marsh Reserve in Mission Bay CA written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Kendall-Frost marsh reserve located on the Northern edge of Mission Bay in San Diego, CA once spanned over 2,000 acres along the coast of the bay. The area underwent heavy dredging and construction starting in the 1940s that removed nearly all the natural marshes. Today, only a small 40-acre plot remains. Rising global temperatures are causing thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land based ice. This unprecedented warming is causing sea levels to rise at an increasing rate. The current rate of global sea level rise is 3.4mm/year. The overall projected sea level rise by 2100 is estimate to be between 0.5-2m. This increased rate threatens to outpace sediment accretion of coastal wetlands which will cause major alterations to the salt marshes, including the Kendall-Frost marsh reserve. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is a useful tool for simulating the effects of rising sea levels on salt marshes, but its use relies heavily on accurate accretion data. This study was aimed at determining accurate rates of accretion for the Kendall-Frost marsh reserve using a relatively simple and inexpensive method. Sample cores of the marsh were taken using a hand-corer 1m in length. Cores were sectioned into 1cm lengths and were analyzed for stable lead (Pb207) content using an ICP-MS. A peak was identified which correlated to the ban of tetraethyl lead (TEL) in gasoline which corresponded to 1973. From this peak in lead levels, sediment chronologies were then developed and used to determine accretion rates for the marsh. Peaks were identified at depths which correlated to an average accretion rate of 4.17mm/year since 1973. This accretion rate is slightly lower than the accretion rate used by most studies of the area. This lower accretion rate, when used for SLAMM modeling of wetland alteration for Mission Bay, indicates that loss of the Kendall-Frost saltmarsh under future sea level rise scenarios will be greater than previously modeled.
Download or read book Cross scale Simulations written by Mirtha Karinna Nunez and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a universal consensus that global sea levels will rise at an increased rate from those in the recent past. Rising seas will dramatically increase the vulnerability of coastal communities and ecosystems. Tidal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems in the world. The effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on tidal marshes are diverse, comprising changes in tidal amplitude and flow patterns, changes in sediment transport, shoreline erosion, changes in salinity gradients, landward migration of tidal habitats, variations in species composition, and habitat loss. There is an increasing concern over how accelerated rates of SLR will impact tidal marsh ecosystems. Many marshes will likely cross thresholds and experience significant and irreversible changes, such as marsh fragmentation and total disintegration due to erosion or drowning. The response of marshes to SLR is expected to vary based on different geomorphic settings, hydrodynamics, sediment sources, and anthropogenic stressors. Due to the increased need to assess tidal marsh vulnerability in the light of changing environments, different models have been developed to predict marsh spatial extent and future distribution. Current models are constrained by the limitations of the two modeling approaches: landscape-scale models and site-specific models. Despite the progress in evaluating marsh response under the effect of SLR, significant challenges still remain in simulating cross-scale processes related to marsh establishment and persistence. This dissertation presents a new approach to modeling marsh evolution. The Tidal Marsh Model (TMM) has been developed as a module within the SCHISM framework (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model). The TMM has unique features (e.g. dynamic rates, cross-scale simulations, and incorporation of anthropogenic stressors) that allow it to overcome many limitations that current marsh models possess. The study areas considered in this study (Carter Creek and Taskinas Creek, Virginia, USA) are representatives of other marsh systems found throughout the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. Marshes in these areas are associated with different geomorphic settings, hydrodynamics, and anthropogenic stressors. These study sites were the focus for model development and calibration, model upgrade, and applications. The TMM simulates marsh migration under the joint influence of tides, wind waves, sediment transport, shoreline structures, land use, and precipitation. The evaluation of model performance was conducted via hindacat (past 40 years). Marsh change was captured with an accuracy of 81% in Carter Creek, and an accuracy of 78% in Taskinas Creek. To refine the initial version of the model, a vegetation algorithm was developed within the TMM code, which accounts for the effects of vegetation on the nearshore hydrodynamics. This new functionality contributes to an improved understanding of how marsh plants affect the mean flow velocity and turbulence, and consequently, the sedimentation processes. The TMM was applied in the two study areas to forecast the potential impacts of SLR on marsh sustainability. Using two SLR scenarios, changes in marsh extent and distribution were projected over the next 50 years. Model outputs offer detailed information about potential areas of marsh loss, as well as identify lands where marshes might have the opportunity to transgress and persist under the effect of SLR. This innovative approach provides coastal managers and decision-makers with valuable and necessary information for monitoring activities, restoration, and strategic planning to support marsh sustainability in a changing system.
Download or read book Climate Change Impacts to the Tidal Salt Marsh Habitats of San Pablo Bay California written by Karen Maria Thorne and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The response of ecosystems to climate change is difficult to evaluate and predict, and often are constrained by anthropogenic modifications to the natural environment. Here, I assess the impacts of sea-level rise and extreme storm events on a tidal salt marsh ecosystem located in San Francisco Bay estuary (California, USA) that contains local endemic and endangered wildlife species. The San Francisco Bay estuary has been heavily impacted from human development resulting in the loss of over 80% of its historic tidal salt marshes. In this dissertation, I hypothesize that there will be short-term impacts from extreme storm events and long-term impacts from sea-level rise on the San Pablo Bay endemic marsh wildlife. The first chapter of this dissertation is a discussion about the current state of understanding about climate change impacts on salt marsh habitats and wildlife, using San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge (SPBNWR) as a case study. The second chapter documents two extreme storm events in 2010 and 2011, and discusses impacts on available marsh habitats. At peak storm surge, over 65% (2010) and 93% (2011) of the marsh habitat for wildlife was under water, presumably increasing predation and drowning risk. In the third chapter, I evaluate if SPBNWR is currently keeping pace with sea-level rise and what biogeomorphic processes may be important. Subsidence and accretion was found to vary spatially, with only 37% of the marsh keeping pace with current sea-level rise rates. Surprisingly, I found widespread subsidence (55%) in areas adjacent to constructed levees. Using Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), I found that the distance from the sediment source (San Pablo Bay edge) was the most important covariate to determine accretion. In the fourth chapter, I develop a spatially-explicit, sea-level rise response model for SPBNWR to assess habitat resiliency to 2100. The model projected a loss of most high marsh habitat by 2050, and a loss of most mid marsh habitat by 2040 to 2060. Low marsh habitat showed a temporary increase in area between 2030 and 2050, with the peak (658 ha) in 2040. A large eastern portion of the marsh or 75% of the area (1,004 ha) converted to predominantly mudflat by 2060 with a 47 cm increase in sea-level. However, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred with a 75 cm sea-level rise by 2080, with
Download or read book Modelling the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Tidal Wetlands written by Dante Torio and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this century, it is expected that both coastal land development and sea level rise will pose a major threat to tidal wetlands. Historically, tidal salt marshes and mangroves have adjusted to sea level rise, but how they will adjust to the accelerated sea level rise associated with anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Future adjustments are likely to be limited both by the capacity of the wetlands to accrete, the ability of the vegetation at the seaward edge to tolerate greater hydroperiods and the suitability of inland areas for wetland migration. With the presence of natural and anthropogenic barriers inland, the capacity of wetlands to adjust to sea level rise and the provision of their ecosystem services are likely to be compromised. Using spatially explicit analyses in a geographic information system (GIS), this thesis presents a series of studies modelling magnitude and impacts associated with sea level rise and how these threats will affect two ecosystem services-habitat provision and carbon storage. An index quantifying threats to migration space or 'coastal squeeze' was developed based upon elevation, accretion, slope and degree of imperviousness of intertidal zone. The index was used to rank the threats of coastal squeeze to three marshes at different sea level rise rates. A modification of the coastal squeeze index, using global datasets, was applied to rank the level of threat to North American salt marshes and mangroves. Using a suite of landscape ecology metrics, I examined the impacts of coastal squeeze and different rates of sea level rise on the spatial distribution, size, shape and orientation of wetland patches as they relate to the quality, quantity and availability of fish habitat. The results of different assumptions of accretion rates (i.e., constant rate vs. accretion rate equals sea level rise rate) were compared. Finally, using a spatially and temporally explicit model, I evaluated the sensitivity of carbon storage in a marsh relative to the different rates and trends (i.e., linear vs. non-linear) of sea level rise, spatial variations in vertical accretion, creek expansion, inland migration and topography. " --
Download or read book Predictive Scientific Assessment of Future Salt Marsh Transgression Using Slamm Sleuth and a Novel Probabilistic Model of Estuarine Shoreline Armoring at the Parcel Scale written by Nicole Elise Peterson and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Salt marshes are an ecosystem particularly affected by sea level rise (SLR), and predicted rates of future SLR pose serious threats to salt marsh sustainability. Urbanization and human responses to SLR also have the potential to threaten salt marsh persistence; in particular, coastal developments and hard armoring can impede the ability of salt marshes to migrate inland. Although a range of models has been developed to predict coastal habitat changes in response to future SLR, trade-offs exist between model complexity, uncertainty, and management utility. This study presents a novel, parsimonious modeling framework for predictive assessment of salt marsh response to SLR at a scale appropriate for application to local and regional planning and decision making by accounting for the effects of current and potential future hard armoring distributions on salt marsh migration. This research advances prior modeling efforts by representing hard armoring distributions at the parcel level scale.
Download or read book Ecosystems of California written by Harold Mooney and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2016-01-19 with total page 1008 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This long-anticipated reference and sourcebook for CaliforniaÕs remarkable ecological abundance provides an integrated assessment of each major ecosystem typeÑits distribution, structure, function, and management. A comprehensive synthesis of our knowledge about this biologically diverse state, Ecosystems of California covers the state from oceans to mountaintops using multiple lenses: past and present, flora and fauna, aquatic and terrestrial, natural and managed. Each chapter evaluates natural processes for a specific ecosystem, describes drivers of change, and discusses how that ecosystem may be altered in the future. This book also explores the drivers of CaliforniaÕs ecological patterns and the history of the stateÕs various ecosystems, outlining how the challenges of climate change and invasive species and opportunities for regulation and stewardship could potentially affect the stateÕs ecosystems. The text explicitly incorporates both human impacts and conservation and restoration efforts and shows how ecosystems support human well-being. Edited by two esteemed ecosystem ecologists and with overviews by leading experts on each ecosystem, this definitive work will be indispensable for natural resource management and conservation professionals as well as for undergraduate or graduate students of CaliforniaÕs environment and curious naturalists.
Download or read book Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aldo Leopold, father of the "land ethic," once said, "The time has come for science to busy itself with the earth itself. The first step is to reconstruct a sample of what we had to begin with." The concept he expressedâ€"restorationâ€"is defined in this comprehensive new volume that examines the prospects for repairing the damage society has done to the nation's aquatic resources: lakes, rivers and streams, and wetlands. Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems outlines a national strategy for aquatic restoration, with practical recommendations, and features case studies of aquatic restoration activities around the country. The committee examines: Key concepts and techniques used in restoration. Common factors in successful restoration efforts. Threats to the health of the nation's aquatic ecosystems. Approaches to evaluation before, during, and after a restoration project. The emerging specialties of restoration and landscape ecology.
Download or read book Suisun Marsh Habitat Management Preservation and Restoration Plan written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing the Vulnerability of Salt Marsh Habitats to Sea Level Rise in California written by Jordan Alexander Rosencranz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicted sea-level rise (SLR) could have catastrophic impacts on the coastal zone. Salt marshes have evolved under low SLR, but their resilience to higher rates is uncertain. Assessing vulnerabilities of California's salt marshes is a case study of the diversity and scale of problems that land managers will face. The major questions of this study were: 1) Are recent sediment budgets allowing southern California salt marshes to keep pace with SLR; 2) within its current range, how vulnerable are two sub-species of Ridgway's rail (Rallus obsoletus; rails), a low elevation salt marsh specialist, to SLR; and 3) within its current range, how vulnerable are Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; sparrows), a high elevation salt marsh specialist, to SLR? To answer the first question, tidal creek sediment fluxes were measured in two sites with different levels of adjacent urbanization. To answer the second and third questions, original and pre-existing wildlife and habitat data were compiled at 17 sites to forecast habitat suitability. Storms and high tides led to sediment import in tidal creeks at Mugu and Seal. While sediment budgets were balanced during the dry study period, Seal's elevation declined, and Mugu's elevation plateaued, suggesting that only Mugu would persist if SLR rate stabilizes. For the Ridgway's Rail study, under a SLR scenario of +166cm/100yr, suitable habitat for the San Francisco Bay Area's (SF) sub-species will increase by 35% at mid-century, and current breeding habitat extent for Southern California's (SC) sub-species will increase by 24%. However, by 2100, SF will lose 84% of suitable habitat and SC will lose 80% of its current habitat extent. Furthermore, six salt marshes will lose over 95% of suitable habitat. Under the same scenario, the current extent of Belding's Savannah sparrow habitat will contract by 61% at mid-century before completely drowning by 2100. Results from the habitat suitability studies indicate that if no major adaptations, such as protecting the shoreline, increasing elevations, restoring marsh drainage, facilitating marsh migration, and restoring sediment delivery, are implemented soon, salt marsh-dependent wildlife in the majority of California coastal zones will be extirpated by 2100 under high SLR scenarios.
Download or read book Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States written by U.S. Global Change Research Program and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-24 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
