Download or read book Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling written by Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.

Download or read book The Future of Work and Technology written by Andreas Cebulla and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-12-20 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how global technological advances shape the way we work and allocate work today, and how we might do so in the future, exploring advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, green technology and implications for workforce skills and future welfare. It uses Australia as a case study, contrasting the country’s experience to those elsewhere. The book is a cross-disciplinary collaboration that brings together the expertise of engineers, data scientists, economists and sociologists. The reader is offered an overview of the current uses of advanced digital technologies and what it means for today’s workforce, society and economy. The book also looks to the future. Current uses of advanced technologies lag its already existing capability. The contributions note potential future applications of technology and the economic, social and workplace implications of technological change. This book should be of interest to anyone studying and wishing to better understand what work might look like in the future and how we might prepare for likely changes.

Download or read book International Trade Regulation written by Zhiqiong June Wang and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-03-21 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The international trade regulatory system is a dynamic system that has been evolving throughout its history. Tension and conflict are part of the system. While calls for the abolition of the principal trade regulation authority, the WTO, have failed to understand this nature of the system, proponents for reforms have so far not paid sufficient attention to the evolving nature of tension and conflict. This book examines the evolving dynamics in international trade regulation from the conclusion of GATT in 1947 to the current crisis facing the WTO, from a perspective of emerging powers of developing countries with a focus of China as the latest force that demands reforms of the international trade regulatory regime. There is an extensive body of scholarship on ideological struggles, the rise of developing countries, geopolitical contest, the emerging powers (especially China), the use, misuse or abuse of trading rules and so on. There is, however, a lack of a single concise research book that synthesises these underlying causes and factors into a coherent and precise analytical theme. This book attempts to fill this research gap by building upon the existing scholarship and placing the various tensions and conflicts in a perspective that treats them as dynamic factors that have propelled a continuing process of evolution of the international trade regulation. The book will interest those researching on international trade regulation as well as development studies. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Download or read book Changing Global Linkages A New Cold War written by Ms. Gita Gopinath and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

Download or read book Divided We Fall Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade written by Shushanik Hakobyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.

Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Switzerland 2024 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2024-03-14 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Switzerland has proved resilient through the pandemic, geopolitical turmoil and reverberations in energy markets. Unemployment and inflation are low, and living standards are among the highest in the OECD. This is reinforced by a dynamic market-based economy, highly skilled workforce and prudent macroeconomic policies. Yet, slowing growth amid continued price pressures pose challenges. A tight monetary policy is necessary to ensure that inflation remains durably within the central bank’s target range. Although a broadly neutral fiscal stance is warranted in the short term, longer-term fiscal pressures call for structural reform to counter rising cost of ageing and to support the green transition. S

Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation What s at Stake for the EU written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-30 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.

Download or read book Economic Policy Reforms 2023 Going for Growth written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For this edition, Going for Growth advises on country-specific structural policy priorities to strengthen growth fundamentals and pave the way for successful green and digital transitions. Four key policy areas are identified: enhancing the design of social support programs; lifting potential growth by removing obstacles to effective resource utilisation; securing faster progress towards decarbonization; making the digital transformation a driver of productivity growth.

Download or read book Fragmentation in Global Trade Accounting for Commodities written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

Download or read book Geo Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-15 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism

Download or read book South Asia s Path to Resilient Growth written by Mr. Ranil M Salgado and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-23 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: South Asia’s Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Download or read book How Vulnerable is Sub Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies. Our quantification relies on a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model and takes a deep dive into the impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. The results are based on a detailed dataset including information for 136 tradable primary commodity and 24 manufacturing and services sectors in 145 countries—32 of which are in SSA. We find that under GEF, SSA could experience long-term wellfare losses of approximately 4 percent of GDP, twice the losses of the rest of the world. This strong effect results from the large losses of other resource-rich and non-resource rich countries in SSA, given their high dependence on commodity trade. However, if the world experiences a less severe GEF-induced trade disruption—a strategic decoupling—SSA countries could derive minor gains from the re-shuffling of global market supply, specially in energy products.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook Asia and the Pacific October 2022 written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-28 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 51⁄2 percent seen over the preceding two decades. Policy support is gradually being withdrawn as inflation rises and idle capacity is utilized, but monetary policy should be ready to tighten faster if the rise in core inflation turns out to be more persistent. The region’s rising public debt lev¬els call for continued fiscal consolidation, so interven¬tions to mitigate global food and energy shocks should be well targeted, temporary, and budget neutral. Structural reforms are needed to boost growth and mitigate the scarring that is expected from the pan¬demic, especially making up for lost schooling through investments in education and training, promoting diversification, addressing the debt overhang from the pandemic, and harnessing digitalization. Strong multilateralism—including through international organizations, the Group of Twenty and regional processes—will be needed to mitigate geo-economic fragmentation and deliver much needed progress on climate change commitments.

Download or read book Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-04-03 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.

Download or read book Cold War 2 0 written by George S. Takach and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A vivid, thoughtful examination of how technological innovation—especially AI—is shaping the tensions between democracy and autocracy during the new Cold War. So much of what we hear about China and Russia today likens the relationship between these two autocracies and the West to a “rivalry” or a “great-power competition.” Some might consider it alarmist to say we are in the midst of a second Cold War, but that may be the only responsible way to describe today’s state of affairs. What’s more, we have come a long way from Mao Zedong’s infamous observation that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Now we live in an age more aptly described by Vladimir Putin’s cryptic prophecy that “artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia, but of all mankind, and whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.” George S. Takach’s incisive and meticulously researched new volume, Cold War 2.0, is the book we need to thoroughly understand these frightening and perilous times. In the geopolitical sphere, there are no more pressing issues than the appalling mechanizations of a surveillance state in China, Russia’s brazen attempt to assert its autocratic model in Ukraine, and China’s increasingly likely plans to do the same in Taiwan. But the key here, Takach argues, is that our new Cold War is not only ideological but technological: the side that prevails in Cold War 2.0 will be the one that bests the other in mastering the greatest innovations of our time. Artificial intelligence sits in our pockets every day—but what about AI that coordinates military operations and missile defense systems? Or the highly sophisticated semiconductor chips and quantum computers that power those missiles and a host of other weapons? And, where recently we have seen remarkable feats of bio-engineering to produce vaccines at record speed, shouldn’t we be concerned how catastrophic it would be if bio-engineering were co-opted for nefarious purposes? Takach thoroughly examines how each of these innovations will shape the tension between democracy and autocracy, and how each will play a central role in this second Cold War. Finally, he crafts a precise blueprint for how Western democracies should handle these innovations to respond to the looming threat of autocracy—and ultimately prevail over it.

Download or read book Decoupling 2 written by Ernst Ulrich Weizsäcker and published by UN. This book was released on 2014 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report explores technological possibilities and opportunities for developing and developed countries to accelerate decoupling and reap environmental and economic benefits of increased resource productivity. It examines policy options successful in helping different countries improve resource productivity in various sectors of their economy, avoiding negative impacts on the environment. It does not seem possible for a global economy based on the current unsustainable patterns of resource use to continue into the future. Economic consequences of these patterns are already apparent in increases in resource prices, increased price volatility and disruption of environmental systems. The environment impacts are also leading to potentially irreversible changes to the world's ecosystems, often with direct effects on people and the economy - for example: damage to health, water shortages, loss of fish stocks or increased storm damage. This report shows that much of the policy design 'know-how' needed to achieve decoupling is present in terms of legislation, incentive systems, and institutional reform. Many countries have tried these out with tangible results, encouraging others to study and where appropriate replicate and scale up such practices and successes

Download or read book Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-29 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singapore’s post pandemic recovery is nearly complete; underpinned by its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policies. While overall output surpassed pre-COVID levels in 2021, the growth momentum has slowed and activities in consumer-facing (except retail) and construction sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels. Inflation remains elevated but has started moderating. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, arising mainly from an abrupt global slowdown or a recession in Singapore’s largest trading partners, tighter global financial conditions, and a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation.