Download or read book Simulation of an Individual Making Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Francis D. Tuggle and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-17 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. This work also introduces the reader to the subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Download or read book Sidip II An Improved Simulation of Decision making Under Uncertainty written by Francis D. Tuggle and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book Uncertainty Stress and Decision Simulation written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In May 2000, Micro Analysis and Design, Inc. and Klein Associates, Inc., were awarded a Phase 1 SBIR to research and develop computational models of decision making in stressful and uncertain conditions (Topic #N00-074, Modeling and Simulation of Decision-making Under Uncertainty). This research was motivated by the need for improved behavioral realisms in computer generated forces (CGFs) with an eye toward reducing and, perhaps, even eliminating the need for human-in-the-loop simulations. Rather than continue in the tradition of rational choice theories and rule-based expert systems, we took a novel approach to this research and began work on a model of Recognition Primed Decision making (RPD). The RPD model explains how people can use their experience to arrive at good decisions without having to compare the strengths and weaknesses of alternative courses of action. For this reason, RPD theory seems to be a natural foundation for a more realistic model of human decision making under stress and uncertainty, but it also presents novel challenges from a computational point of view. We summarize below how we addressed these challenges during our Phase 1 work, and how we will work toward a validated modeling technology under a Phase 2 contract.
Download or read book Decision Modeling and Behavior in Complex and Uncertain Environments written by Tamar Kugler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-20 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text examines new research at the interface of operations research, behavioral and cognitive sciences, and decision analysis. From the cognitive behaviorist who collects empirical evidence as to how people make decisions to the engineer and economist who are the consumers of such understanding, the reader encounters the familiar Traveling Salesman Problem and Prisoner's dilemma, how agricultural decisions are made in Argentina's Pampas region, and some social goals that come into play as an element of rational decision-making. In these 14 self-contained chapters, broad topics covered include the integration of decision analysis and behavioral models, innovations in behavioral models, exploring descriptive behavior models, and experimental studies.
Download or read book Tactical Decision Making Under Categorical Uncertainty with Applications to Modeling and Simulation written by Kacey Edward Kemmerer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Network Centric Warfare approach to command and control emphasizes decentralized decision making. Consequently, decision makers must comprehend and evaluate information to determine the optimal course of action. This study examines how different categories of uncertainty (ambiguous/missing, conflicting, baseline) and individual differences affect response time in decision making tasks. The researchers elicited real-world tactical scenarios from veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in which uncertainty was present. Nine scenarios were given to 28 participants at the Command General Staff College, FT Leavenworth, KS. The participants were asked to make a decision; their responses were recorded and analyzed. The results indicate that the category of uncertainty and scenario difficulty are significant factors in determining response time. No individual difference factors were found to be significant. These findings have the potential to improve human behavior modeling, tactical simulations, and representations of complex task environments.
Download or read book Individual and Small Group Decisions written by K.J. Radford and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ecision making is one of the most important activities in both our profes D sional and our private lives today. The literature on the subject has grown considerably over the last fifty years and it now covers many different approaches to the subject. These approaches range from that of creating a mathematical model of the decision situation under consideration, as in operations research and other forms of mathematical decision analysis, to those that are based on human and organizational behavior. Recently, those working in the field have begun to combine approaches to the study of decision situations that arise in organizations, in our personal lives and in the communities in which we live. This book is an attempt to assist those concerned with decision making to work with this combination of approaches. In the past, decision problems have been considered according to the condi tions under which they arise and to some extent in terms of the approaches available for their resolution. Writers on the subject who are mathematically oriented have devised a method of classifying decisions based on the type of mathematics that they suggest be used in the resolution of the problems. This approach leads to the division of decision situations into the categories of cer tainty, uncertainty, risk and competition. Deterministic models available in oper ations research have then been offered as the means of treating decision situations in the category of certainty.
Download or read book Making Decisions Under Stress written by Janis A. Cannon-Bowers and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume represents the culmination of a 7-yr research project called Tactical Decision Making Under Stress (TADMUS). The program was conceived in response to an incident involving the USS Vincennes, a warship that mistakenly shot down an Iranian airbus in July 1989. The goal of the program was to develop training, simulation, decision support, and display principles that would help to mitigate the impact of stress on decision making. This volume focuses on research directed at training and simulation solutions to the problem.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1979 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Edi Karni and published by . This book was released on 2013-10-01 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Solving Decision Models Under Uncertain Joint Distributions written by Luis V. Montiel and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all relevant decisions have attached values or outcomes that are uncertain. However, when a complete description of the uncertainties is unknown, traditional models struggle to provide an optimal course of action. In this book, I present a modeling procedure to analyze stochastic decisions with underspecified joint probability distributions. The book is directed to researchers and practitioners with the interest of modeling problems where the structure of the uncertainties is partially known. This work represents a four-fold project. First, a new framework for joint probability distribution approximations is provided. Second, a new joint distribution simulation procedure (JDSIM) is developed. JDSIM sample joint probability distributions from the set of all possible distributions that match the available information. Third, a framework for testing the accuracy of different joint probability distribution approximations is developed. Finally, a new approach to decision making under uncertainty is proposed. The techniques in this book will provide the reader with the tools to model and analyze decisions with a new and deeper understanding of the relevant uncertainties.
Download or read book Decision making Under Uncertainty written by Tapan Biswas and published by MacMillan. This book was released on 1997 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the core of microeconomic theory lie the economics of uncertainty and the economics of games and decisions. This text for undergraduates and specialists in mathematical economics links game theory with decision-making under uncertainty
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer written by Wayne L. Winston and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previously published by Palisade Corporation, 1999 under the title: Decision making under uncertainty with RISKOptimizer : a step-by-step guide with Microsoft Excel and Palisade's RISKOptimizer software.
Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Charles Jackson Grayson (Jr.) and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
