Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Download or read book Small Data Big Disruptions written by Martin Schwirn and published by Red Wheel/Weiser. This book was released on 2021-04-15 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A method to find and connect the small data clues that show what the future’s big picture will look like. “Strategy decisions are like playing high-stakes blackjack, and scanning is the technique for counting cards. Martin Schwirn isn’t a pro gambler, but an expert in scanning.” —Bill Ralston, cofounder of Strategic Business Insights and author of Scenario Planning Handbook An organization’s future success depends on their decision makers’ ability to anticipate changes and disruptions in the marketplace. But how do you get information about tomorrow today? How can your decisions today account for tomorrow’s uncertainties? Small Data, Big Disruptions presents a tool kit to foresee coming changes: Understand why big data will not help you with understanding tomorrow’s disruptions. The future starts with small data—first. Learn the proven 4-step process to capture small data that help envision the future. See examples of how the process anticipated major disruptions. Implement the process in your organization and learn how to initiate meaningful actions. Small Data, Big Disruptions provides the information you need to anticipate the future, understand tomorrow’s market dynamics, and make the necessary decisions to meet the future on your terms. Small Data, Big Disruptions lets you exploit the period between the moment you could know about emerging disruptions and the moment most everybody will know about it. It’s the difference between being ahead of the curve and struggling to catch up.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book The Mathematical Theory of Communication written by Claude E Shannon and published by University of Illinois Press. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientific knowledge grows at a phenomenal pace--but few books have had as lasting an impact or played as important a role in our modern world as The Mathematical Theory of Communication, published originally as a paper on communication theory more than fifty years ago. Republished in book form shortly thereafter, it has since gone through four hardcover and sixteen paperback printings. It is a revolutionary work, astounding in its foresight and contemporaneity. The University of Illinois Press is pleased and honored to issue this commemorative reprinting of a classic.

Download or read book Robust Kalman Filtering for Signals and Systems with Large Uncertainties written by Ian R. Petersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A significant shortcoming of the state space control theory that emerged in the 1960s was its lack of concern for the issue of robustness. However, in the design of feedback control systems, robustness is a critical issue. These facts led to great activity in the research area of robust control theory. One of the major developments of modern control theory was the Kalman Filter and hence the development of a robust version of the Kalman Filter has become an active area of research. Although the issue of robustness in filtering is not as critical as in feedback control (where there is always the issue of instability to worry about), research on robust filtering and state estimation has remained very active in recent years. However, although numerous books have appeared on the topic of Kalman filtering, this book is one of the first to appear on robust Kalman filtering. Most of the material presented in this book derives from a period of research collaboration between the authors from 1992 to 1994. However, its origins go back earlier than that. The first author (LR. P. ) became in terested in problems of robust filtering through his research collaboration with Dr. Duncan McFarlane. At this time, Dr. McFarlane was employed at the Melbourne Research Laboratories ofBHP Ltd. , a large Australian min erals, resources, and steel processing company.

Download or read book Cell Biology by the Numbers written by Ron Milo and published by Garland Science. This book was released on 2015-12-07 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Top 25 CHOICE 2016 Title, and recipient of the CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title (OAT) Award. How much energy is released in ATP hydrolysis? How many mRNAs are in a cell? How genetically similar are two random people? What is faster, transcription or translation?Cell Biology by the Numbers explores these questions and dozens of others provid

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Download or read book Uncertainty in Biology written by Liesbet Geris and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-26 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computational modeling allows to reduce, refine and replace animal experimentation as well as to translate findings obtained in these experiments to the human background. However these biomedical problems are inherently complex with a myriad of influencing factors, which strongly complicates the model building and validation process. This book wants to address four main issues related to the building and validation of computational models of biomedical processes: 1. Modeling establishment under uncertainty 2. Model selection and parameter fitting 3. Sensitivity analysis and model adaptation 4. Model predictions under uncertainty In each of the abovementioned areas, the book discusses a number of key-techniques by means of a general theoretical description followed by one or more practical examples. This book is intended for graduate students and researchers active in the field of computational modeling of biomedical processes who seek to acquaint themselves with the different ways in which to study the parameter space of their model as well as its overall behavior.

Download or read book Molecular Communication written by Tadashi Nakano and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive guide, by pioneers in the field, brings together, for the first time, everything a new researcher, graduate student or industry practitioner needs to get started in molecular communication. Written with accessibility in mind, it requires little background knowledge, and provides a detailed introduction to the relevant aspects of biology and information theory, as well as coverage of practical systems. The authors start by describing biological nanomachines, the basics of biological molecular communication and the microorganisms that use it. They then proceed to engineered molecular communication and the molecular communication paradigm, with mathematical models of various types of molecular communication and a description of the information and communication theory of molecular communication. Finally, the practical aspects of designing molecular communication systems are presented, including a review of the key applications. Ideal for engineers and biologists looking to get up to speed on the current practice in this growing field.

Download or read book Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-30 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world of increasing dependence on information technology, the prevention of cyberattacks on a nation's important computer and communications systems and networks is a problem that looms large. Given the demonstrated limitations of passive cybersecurity defense measures, it is natural to consider the possibility that deterrence might play a useful role in preventing cyberattacks against the United States and its vital interests. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Research Council undertook a two-phase project aimed to foster a broad, multidisciplinary examination of strategies for deterring cyberattacks on the United States and of the possible utility of these strategies for the U.S. government. The first phase produced a letter report providing basic information needed to understand the nature of the problem and to articulate important questions that can drive research regarding ways of more effectively preventing, discouraging, and inhibiting hostile activity against important U.S. information systems and networks. The second phase of the project entailed selecting appropriate experts to write papers on questions raised in the letter report. A number of experts, identified by the committee, were commissioned to write these papers under contract with the National Academy of Sciences. Commissioned papers were discussed at a public workshop held June 10-11, 2010, in Washington, D.C., and authors revised their papers after the workshop. Although the authors were selected and the papers reviewed and discussed by the committee, the individually authored papers do not reflect consensus views of the committee, and the reader should view these papers as offering points of departure that can stimulate further work on the topics discussed. The papers presented in this volume are published essentially as received from the authors, with some proofreading corrections made as limited time allowed.

Download or read book Adaptive Compensation of Nonlinear Actuators for Flight Control Applications written by Dipankar Deb and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-22 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a basic understanding of adaptive control and its applications in Flight control. It discusses the designing of an adaptive feedback control system and analyzes this for flight control of linear and nonlinear aircraft models using synthetic jet actuators. It also discusses control methodologies and the application of control techniques which will help practicing flight control and active flow control researchers. It also covers modelling and control designs which will also benefit researchers from the background of fluid mechanics and health management of actuation systems. The unique feature of this book is characterization of synthetic jet actuator nonlinearities over a wide range of angles of attack, an adaptive compensation scheme for such nonlinearities, and a systematic framework for feedback control of aircraft dynamics with synthetic jet actuators.

Download or read book Toeplitz Approach to Problems of the Uncertainty Principle written by Alexei Poltoratski and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2015-03-07 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis (UP) is a classical, yet rapidly developing, area of modern mathematics. Its first significant results and open problems date back to the work of Norbert Wiener, Andrei Kolmogorov, Mark Krein and Arne Beurling. At present, it encompasses a large part of mathematics, from Fourier analysis, frames and completeness problems for various systems of functions to spectral problems for differential operators and canonical systems. These notes are devoted to the so-called Toeplitz approach to UP which recently brought solutions to some of the long-standing problems posed by the classics. After a short overview of the general area of UP the discussion turns to the outline of the new approach and its results. Among those are solutions to Beurling's Gap Problem in Fourier analysis, the Type Problem on completeness of exponential systems, a problem by Pólya and Levinson on sampling sets for entire functions, Bernstein's problem on uniform polynomial approximation, problems on asymptotics of Fourier integrals and a Toeplitz version of the Beurling-Malliavin theory. One of the main goals of the book is to present new directions for future research opened by the new approach to the experts and young analysts. A co-publication of the AMS and CBMS.

Download or read book Foundations of Signal Processing written by Martin Vetterli and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-09-04 with total page 745 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive and engaging textbook introduces the basic principles and techniques of signal processing, from the fundamental ideas of signals and systems theory to real-world applications. Students are introduced to the powerful foundations of modern signal processing, including the basic geometry of Hilbert space, the mathematics of Fourier transforms, and essentials of sampling, interpolation, approximation and compression The authors discuss real-world issues and hurdles to using these tools, and ways of adapting them to overcome problems of finiteness and localization, the limitations of uncertainty, and computational costs. It includes over 160 homework problems and over 220 worked examples, specifically designed to test and expand students' understanding of the fundamentals of signal processing, and is accompanied by extensive online materials designed to aid learning, including Mathematica® resources and interactive demonstrations.

Download or read book Deterrence under Uncertainty written by Edward Geist and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-08-31 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades? Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

Download or read book The Neuropsychology of Emotion written by Joan C. Borod and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-05-18 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive review of the neuropsychology of emotion and the underlying neural mechanisms, is divided into four sections: background and general techniques, theoretical perspectives, emotional disorders, and clinical implications.