Download or read book Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Expected Performance written by Silvina M. Cabrini and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Bayesian hierarchical approach is employed to estimate individual expected performance of agricultural market advisory services. Skeptical beliefs based on market efficiency are incorporated as prior information. For a skeptical decision maker who is willing to follow an advisory program only if it is expected to increase price received by more than 1%, one of the corn programs, most of the soybean programs, and a few wheat programs may be valuable marketing alternatives. The expectation under this model from following the single top-ranked program are price increases of 1%, 4%, and 3% for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively.
Download or read book Back to the Futures Crashing Dirt Bikes Chasing Cows and Unraveling the Mystery of Commodity Futures Markets written by Scott Irwin and published by Ceres Books LLC. This book was released on 2023-08-07 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whoever said learning about futures markets had to be boring? Futures markets are a mystery. Fortunes are made and lost in these markets, yet most people know little about how they work. In Back to the Futures, agricultural economist Scott Irwin explains why it’s essential to understand futures markets, whether you’re talking about grain, cattle, or the largest market of them all—crude oil. These massive markets lie at the heart of our economy, affecting us all. Irwin’s engaging storytelling style brings the madcap world of futures trading to life, drawing you in by sharing his wild, life-threatening adventures with motorcycles, snowmobiles, race cars, farm equipment, and renegade cows while growing up on an Iowa farm. Back to the Futures will keep you riveted as he explains how to reduce risk in today’s intense arena of commodity trading. This unique book brings in other experts as well, such as Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group (the largest commodity trading exchange in the world), and Leo Melamed, the man who revolutionized the market with electronic trading. Together, these experts combine their knowledge and experiences to provide clarity on the following topics: Why future markets are crucial for farmers and consumers. The critical role future markets play in our financial system. The role speculators play in making these markets work. And much more. Commodity futures trading has become a vital part of doing business in America. So, get ready to learn something new–and don’t be surprised if you find yourself highly entertained along the journey!
Download or read book Hierarchical Bayes Methods for Market written by Martin R. Young and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hierarchical Bayes Methods for Market Model Estimation and Portfolio Selection written by Martin R. Young and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis written by Ming-Hui Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-08-16 with total page 631 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research in Bayesian analysis and statistical decision theory is rapidly expanding and diversifying, making it increasingly more difficult for any single researcher to stay up to date on all current research frontiers. This book provides a review of current research challenges and opportunities. While the book can not exhaustively cover all current research areas, it does include some exemplary discussion of most research frontiers. Topics include objective Bayesian inference, shrinkage estimation and other decision based estimation, model selection and testing, nonparametric Bayes, the interface of Bayesian and frequentist inference, data mining and machine learning, methods for categorical and spatio-temporal data analysis and posterior simulation methods. Several major application areas are covered: computer models, Bayesian clinical trial design, epidemiology, phylogenetics, bioinformatics, climate modeling and applications in political science, finance and marketing. As a review of current research in Bayesian analysis the book presents a balance between theory and applications. The lack of a clear demarcation between theoretical and applied research is a reflection of the highly interdisciplinary and often applied nature of research in Bayesian statistics. The book is intended as an update for researchers in Bayesian statistics, including non-statisticians who make use of Bayesian inference to address substantive research questions in other fields. It would also be useful for graduate students and research scholars in statistics or biostatistics who wish to acquaint themselves with current research frontiers.
Download or read book Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services written by Silvina M. Cabrini and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article develops measures of marketing style for advisory programs in corn and soybeans and estimates the relationship between style characteristics and pricing performance. Style is measured by the intensity of futures and options use, degree of activeness in marketing, and seasonality of sales. The data set consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS project at the University of Illinois between 1995 and 2004. Results indicate that active programs making large bets on price movements obtain a higher average price than more conservative programs. This is consistent with active advisors possessing superior information and/or analytical skills rather than being overconfident. However, estimates of the relationship between pricing performance and activeness are sensitive to the inclusion of a single high-performing program.
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management written by Söhnke M. Bartram and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-08-28 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown in presence in asset management and has revolutionized the sector in many ways. It has improved portfolio management, trading, and risk management practices by increasing efficiency, accuracy, and compliance. In particular, AI techniques help construct portfolios based on more accurate risk and return forecasts and more complex constraints. Trading algorithms use AI to devise novel trading signals and execute trades with lower transaction costs. AI also improves risk modeling and forecasting by generating insights from new data sources. Finally, robo-advisors owe a large part of their success to AI techniques. Yet the use of AI can also create new risks and challenges, such as those resulting from model opacity, complexity, and reliance on data integrity.
Download or read book Introduction to Small Area Estimation Techniques written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide to small area estimation aims to help users compile more reliable granular or disaggregated data in cost-effective ways. It explains small area estimation techniques with examples of how the easily accessible R analytical platform can be used to implement them, particularly to estimate indicators on poverty, employment, and health outcomes. The guide is intended for staff of national statistics offices and for other development practitioners. It aims to help them to develop and implement targeted socioeconomic policies to ensure that the vulnerable segments of societies are not left behind, and to monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals.
Download or read book Cluster Analysis written by Brian S. Everitt and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications written by M. Sengupta and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics written by John Geweke and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tools to improve decision making in an imperfect world This publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in the theory of inference and optimal decision making. Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics provides readers with state-of-the-art simulation methods and models that are used to solve complex real-world problems. Armed with a strong foundation in both theory and practical problem-solving tools, readers discover how to optimize decision making when faced with problems that involve limited or imperfect data. The book begins by examining the theoretical and mathematical foundations of Bayesian statistics to help readers understand how and why it is used in problem solving. The author then describes how modern simulation methods make Bayesian approaches practical using widely available mathematical applications software. In addition, the author details how models can be applied to specific problems, including: * Linear models and policy choices * Modeling with latent variables and missing data * Time series models and prediction * Comparison and evaluation of models The publication has been developed and fine- tuned through a decade of classroom experience, and readers will find the author's approach very engaging and accessible. There are nearly 200 examples and exercises to help readers see how effective use of Bayesian statistics enables them to make optimal decisions. MATLAB? and R computer programs are integrated throughout the book. An accompanying Web site provides readers with computer code for many examples and datasets. This publication is tailored for research professionals who use econometrics and similar statistical methods in their work. With its emphasis on practical problem solving and extensive use of examples and exercises, this is also an excellent textbook for graduate-level students in a broad range of fields, including economics, statistics, the social sciences, business, and public policy.
Download or read book SAS for Mixed Models written by Walter W. Stroup and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2018-12-12 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the power of mixed models with SAS. Mixed models—now the mainstream vehicle for analyzing most research data—are part of the core curriculum in most master’s degree programs in statistics and data science. In a single volume, this book updates both SAS® for Linear Models, Fourth Edition, and SAS® for Mixed Models, Second Edition, covering the latest capabilities for a variety of applications featuring the SAS GLIMMIX and MIXED procedures. Written for instructors of statistics, graduate students, scientists, statisticians in business or government, and other decision makers, SAS® for Mixed Models is the perfect entry for those with a background in two-way analysis of variance, regression, and intermediate-level use of SAS. This book expands coverage of mixed models for non-normal data and mixed-model-based precision and power analysis, including the following topics: Random-effect-only and random-coefficients models Multilevel, split-plot, multilocation, and repeated measures models Hierarchical models with nested random effects Analysis of covariance models Generalized linear mixed models This book is part of the SAS Press program.
Download or read book Market Segmentation Analysis written by Sara Dolnicar and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-20 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This open access book offers something for everyone working with market segmentation: practical guidance for users of market segmentation solutions; organisational guidance on implementation issues; guidance for market researchers in charge of collecting suitable data; and guidance for data analysts with respect to the technical and statistical aspects of market segmentation analysis. Even market segmentation experts will find something new, including an approach to exploring data structure and choosing a suitable number of market segments, and a vast array of useful visualisation techniques that make interpretation of market segments and selection of target segments easier. The book talks the reader through every single step, every single potential pitfall, and every single decision that needs to be made to ensure market segmentation analysis is conducted as well as possible. All calculations are accompanied not only with a detailed explanation, but also with R code that allows readers to replicate any aspect of what is being covered in the book using R, the open-source environment for statistical computing and graphics.
Download or read book Data Science and Machine Learning written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on mathematical understanding Presentation is self-contained, accessible, and comprehensive Full color throughout Extensive list of exercises and worked-out examples Many concrete algorithms with actual code
Download or read book The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2018-09-14 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.
Download or read book Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance written by Mihail C. Roco and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: M. C. Roco and W.S. Bainbridge In the early decades of the 21st century, concentrated efforts can unify science based on the unity of nature, thereby advancing the combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and new technologies based in cognitive science. With proper attention to ethical issues and societal needs, converging in human abilities, societal technologies could achieve a tremendous improvement outcomes, the nation's productivity, and the quality of life. This is a broad, cross cutting, emerging and timely opportunity of interest to individuals, society and humanity in the long term. The phrase "convergent technologies" refers to the synergistic combination of four major "NBIC" (nano-bio-info-cogno) provinces of science and technology, each of which is currently progressing at a rapid rate: (a) nanoscience and nanotechnology; (b) biotechnology and biomedicine, including genetic engineering; (c) information technology, including advanced computing and communications; (d) cognitive science, including cognitive neuroscience. Timely and Broad Opportunity. Convergence of diverse technologies is based on material unity at the nanoscale and on technology integration from that scale.
Download or read book An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis written by Alan Agresti and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-10-11 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A valuable new edition of a standard reference The use of statistical methods for categorical data has increased dramatically, particularly for applications in the biomedical and social sciences. An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, Third Edition summarizes these methods and shows readers how to use them using software. Readers will find a unified generalized linear models approach that connects logistic regression and loglinear models for discrete data with normal regression for continuous data. Adding to the value in the new edition is: • Illustrations of the use of R software to perform all the analyses in the book • A new chapter on alternative methods for categorical data, including smoothing and regularization methods (such as the lasso), classification methods such as linear discriminant analysis and classification trees, and cluster analysis • New sections in many chapters introducing the Bayesian approach for the methods of that chapter • More than 70 analyses of data sets to illustrate application of the methods, and about 200 exercises, many containing other data sets • An appendix showing how to use SAS, Stata, and SPSS, and an appendix with short solutions to most odd-numbered exercises Written in an applied, nontechnical style, this book illustrates the methods using a wide variety of real data, including medical clinical trials, environmental questions, drug use by teenagers, horseshoe crab mating, basketball shooting, correlates of happiness, and much more. An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, Third Edition is an invaluable tool for statisticians and biostatisticians as well as methodologists in the social and behavioral sciences, medicine and public health, marketing, education, and the biological and agricultural sciences.
