Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Download or read book Short term and Long term Expectations of the Yen dollar Exchange Rate written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.
Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.
Download or read book Dollar and Yen written by Ronald I. McKinnon and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. From the mid-1950s to the early 1990s, Japan grew faster than any other major industrial economy, displacing the United States in dominance of worldwide manufacturing markets. In the 1970s and 1980s, many books appeared linking the apparent decline of the United States in the world economy to unfair Japanese practices that closed the Japanese market to a wide range of foreign goods. Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. The authors argue against the prevailing view that the trade imbalance should be corrected by dollar depreciation, saying that adjustment through the exchange rate is both ineffective and costly. Stepping outside the traditional dichotomy between international trade and international finance, they link the yen's tremendous appreciation from 1971 to mid-1995 to mercantile pressure from the United States arising from trade tensions between the two countries. Although sometimes resisted by the Bank of Japan, this yen appreciation nevertheless forced unwanted deflation on the Japanese economy after 1985--resulting in two major recessions (endaka fukyos). The authors argue for relaxing commercial tensions between the two countries, and for limiting future economic downturns, by combining a commercial compact for mutual trade liberalization with a monetary accord for stabilizing the yen-dollar exchange rate.
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination and Optimal Economic Policy Under Various Exchange Rate Regimes written by Eelke de Jong and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1.1 Some characteristics of the floating exchange rate system The flexible exchange rate system has functioned far less satisfactorily than many anticipated in 1973, when the major industrialized countries decided to let their currencies float. The dominant currencies' exchange rates have fluctuated more 1 than expected. These fluctuations concern both short-term movement- intraday fluctuations and movements during a week or a month - and long term changes that last for more than a year. Daily percentage changes of one percent are not unusual for the recent float (see MacDonald, 1988, p.8). However, the release of new information can give rise to much larger changes. For example in August 1987 "the dollar moved down 6 percent in two days based on the July trade figures" (Glynn, 1988, p. 36). For the period 1973-1985 MacDonald (1988, p.10) presents minimum and maximum monthly percentage exchange rate changes. These figures clearly illustrate the magnitude of the volatility and also show that the volatility has not diminished as the experience 2 with floating has increased. In addition to this volatility, exchange rates are also characterized by misalignment: "persistent departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium" (Williamson, 1983, p.l3). Although the measure of misalignment depends upon the exact definition of the exchange rate's long-run equilibrium, there is a widespread feeling that during the greater part of the 1970s the dollar was undervalued, whereas it was overvalued during the first half of the 1980s.
Download or read book International Finance written by Dilip Das and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this updated fourth edition, author Maurice Levi successfully integrates both the micro and macro aspects of international finance. He sucessfully explores managerial issues and focuses on problems arising from financial trading relations between nations, whilst covering key topics such as: * organization of foreign exchange markets * determination of exchange rates * the fundamental principles of international finance * foreign exchange risk and exposure * fixed and flexible exchange rates. This impressive new edition builds and improves upon the popular style and structure of the original. With new data, improved pedagogy, and coverage of all of the main developments in international finance over the last few years, this book will prove essential reading for students of economics and business.
Download or read book International Finance written by Dilip Das and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this updated fourth edition, author Maurice Levi successfully integrates both the micro and macro aspects of international finance. He sucessfully explores managerial issues and focuses on problems arising from financial trading relations between nations, whilst covering key topics such as: * organization of foreign exchange markets * determination of exchange rates * the fundamental principles of international finance * foreign exchange risk and exposure * fixed and flexible exchange rates. This impressive new edition builds and improves upon the popular style and structure of the original. With new data, improved pedagogy, and coverage of all of the main developments in international finance over the last few years, this book will prove essential reading for students of economics and business.
Download or read book Handbook of International Economics written by Ronald Winthrop Jones and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1984 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This Handbook adopts a traditional definition of the subject, and focuses primarily on the explanation of international transactions in goods, services, and assets, and on the main domestic effects of those transactions. The first volume deals with the "real side" of international economics. It is concerned with the explanation of trade and factor flows, with their main effects on goods and factor prices, on the allocation of resources and income distribution and on economic welfare, and also with the effects on national policies designed explicitly to influence trade and factor flows. In other words, it deals chiefly with microeconomic issues and methods. The second volume deals with the "monetary side" of the subject. It is concerned with the balance of payments adjustment process under fixed exchange rates, with exchange rate determination under flexible exchange rates, and with the domestic ramifications of these phenomena. Accordingly, it deals mainly with economic issues, although microeconomic methods are frequently utilized, especially in work on expectations, asset markets, and exchange rate behavior."--Publisher's information
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Economics written by Leigh Tesfatsion and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-15 with total page 905 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The explosive growth in computational power over the past several decades offers new tools and opportunities for economists. This handbook volume surveys recent research on Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), the computational study of economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interacting agents. Empirical referents for "agents" in ACE models can range from individuals or social groups with learning capabilities to physical world features with no cognitive function. Topics covered include: learning; empirical validation; network economics; social dynamics; financial markets; innovation and technological change; organizations; market design; automated markets and trading agents; political economy; social-ecological systems; computational laboratory development; and general methodological issues.*Every volume contains contributions from leading researchers*Each Handbook presents an accurate, self-contained survey of a particular topic *The series provides comprehensive and accessible surveys
Download or read book The Japanese Economy and the Way Forward written by R. Tandon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-06-21 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the causes of the 'lost decade' in the Japanese economy and the series of policy mistakes which lead to a deflationary environment. What will the future bring for the Japanese economy? Without reforms, the situation can only decline. The issue is that the institutions and policies that were used to drive the 'Japanese miracle' are still in place. The book argues that Japan's crisis is thus, a crisis of governance.
Download or read book The Value Added Tax Orthodoxy and New Thinking written by Murray L. Weidenbaum and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IF, WHEN YOU SAY "CONSUMPTION TAX , " YOU MEAN . . . by Ernest S. Christian, Jr. and Cliff Massa III Much has been said and written about consumption taxes in the United States, but mostly in a theoretical context. Dozens of schol arly treatises have been published, along with innumerable papers and speeches most of which were more argumentative than illumi nating in nature. Audiences have sat through uncounted confer ences on the merits or evils of consumption taxes, depending on the speakers' perspectives. There have been only three comprehensive legislative proposals to which these theories and arguments could be 1 applied, no one of which was acted upon in the Congress. Purveyors of conventional wisdom have suggested that this theo retical context might be replaced within a year or two by actual con sideration of a federal-level consumption tax. Some see enactment of such a tax as a desirable -- or at least a necessary -- means for reducing the federal deficit. The National Economic Commission, which was created by legislation in 1987 to recommend deficit reduction measures, was perceived by many skeptics and proponents alike to be the Trojan Horse which would carry a consumption tax Lrhe proposals were H. R. 7015, ''The Tax Restructuring Act of 1980," introduced by Rep. Al Ullman; S. 1102, ''The Business Transfer Tax Act of 1985," introduced by Senator William Roth; and H. R. 4598, introduced by Rep.
Download or read book Handbook of International Economics written by G.M. Grossman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1995-12-13 with total page 904 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reference accords recognition to the recent revolution in macroeconomics wrought by imperfect competition. Grossman and Rogoff (Princeton U.) present chapters by two dozen contributors on two prime areas of research interest: international trade theory and policy (e.g. strategic trade patterns and policies, the relationship between trade and technological progress), and open economy macroeconomics and international finance (covering such topics as exchange rates, foreign lending, and policy coordination). The volume commences with Krugman's overview of the positive theory of international trade, and concludes with analyses of sovereign debt. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.
Download or read book The Japanese Economy written by Peter Drysdale and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 1998 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Markets and Economic Performance written by John E. Silvia and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-31 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective decision making requires understanding of the underlying principles of financial markets and economics. Intellectually, economics and financial markets are genetically intertwined although when it comes to popular commentary they are treated separately. In fact, academic economic thinking appears separate from financial market equity strategy in most financial market commentary. Historically, macroeconomics tended to assume away financial frictions and financial intermediation whereas financial economists did not necessarily consider the negative macroeconomic spill overs from financial market outcomes. In more recent years, the economic discipline has gone through a serious self-reflection after the global crisis. This book explores the interplay between financial markets and macroeconomic outcomes with a conceptual framework that combines the actions of investors and individuals. Of interest to graduate students and those professionals working in the financial markets, it provides insight into why market prices move and credit markets interact and what factors participants and policy makers can monitor to anticipate market change and future price paths.
