Download or read book Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries written by Dilip Ratha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a 'B' or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities' access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid, for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.
Download or read book Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries written by Dilip Ratha and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan, and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a "B" or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities' access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model, along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.
Download or read book Shadow Sovereign Ratings written by Otaviano Canuto and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign ratings are a necessary condition for countries to fully access international capital. Even if the sovereign government is not issuing bonds, the sovereign rating often acts as a 'ceiling' for the private sector and can influence its international capital market access. However, 58 developing countries are still not rated by Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch, the three international credit rating agencies. This premise presents an exercise to predict 'shadow' sovereign ratings to estimate where unrated countries will lie on the credit spectrum if they were rated. Contrary to popular perception, unrated countries are not necessarily at the bottom of the rating spectrum.
Download or read book Sovereign Ratings in the Post Crisis World written by Kaushik Basu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, whereas it deteriorated in crisis-affected high-income countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Egypt. Interestingly, India, Jordan, Poland, and the United Kingdom had their rating outlook downgraded by the rating agencies, but their relative rating actually improved as other countries suffered even worse downgrades. A regression model is used to analyze the relative contributions of different variables to rating changes during 2008-2012, a helpful feature for policy makers interested in improving sovereign ratings.
Download or read book Sovereign Ratings in the Post Crisis World written by Kaushik Basu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, whereas it deteriorated in crisis-affected high-income countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Egypt. Interestingly, India, Jordan, Poland, and the United Kingdom had their rating outlook downgraded by the rating agencies, but their relative rating actually improved as other countries suffered even worse downgrades. A regression model is used to analyze the relative contributions of different variables to rating changes during 2008-2012, a helpful feature for policy makers interested in improving sovereign ratings.
Download or read book Innovative Financing for Development written by Suhas Ketkar and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-09-29 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing countries need additional, cross-border capital channeled into their private sectors to generate employment and growth, reduce poverty, and meet the other Millennium Development Goals. Innovative financing mechanisms are necessary to make this happen. 'Innovative Financing for Development' is the first book on this subject that uses a market-based approach. It compiles pioneering methods of raising development finance including securitization of future flow receivables, diaspora bonds, and GDP-indexed bonds. It also highlights the role of shadow sovereign ratings in facilitating access to international capital markets. It argues that poor countries, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa, can potentially raise tens of billions of dollars annually through these instruments. The chapters in the book focus on the structures of the various innovative financing mechanisms, their track records and potential for tapping international capital markets, the constraints limiting their use, and policy measures that governments and international institutions can implement to alleviate these constraints.
Download or read book Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance written by Kady Keita and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the link between the quality of fiscal governance and access to market-based external finance. Stronger fiscal governance is associated with improvements in several indicators of market access, including a higher likelihood of issuing sovereign bonds and having a sovereign credit rating, receiving stronger ratings, and obtaining lower spreads. Using the more granular information on quality of fiscal governance from Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessments for 89 emerging and developing economies, we find that similar indicators of market access are correlated with sound public financial management practices, especially those that improve budget transparency and reporting, debt management, and fiscal strategy.
Download or read book Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries written by Ahmat Jidoud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-02 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances—as a share of GDP—have a significant smoothing impact on output volatility but their impact on consumption volatility is somewhat small. Furthermore, remittances are found to absorb a substantial amount of GDP shocks in these countries. An investigation of the theoretical channels shows that the stabilization impact of remittances essentially hinges on two channels: (i) the size of the negative wealth effect on labor supply induced by remittances and, (ii) the strength of financial frictions and the ability of remittances to alleviate these frictions.
Download or read book The Failure of Financial Regulation written by Anil Hira and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-16 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This publication could not be more timely. Little more than a decade after the global financial crisis of 2008, governments are once again loosening the reins over financial markets. The authors of this volume explain why that is a mistake and could invite yet another major crisis.” —Benjamin Cohen, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA “Leading political scientists from several generations here offer historical depth, as well as sensible suggestions about what reforms are needed now.” —John Kirton, University of Toronto, Canada, and Co-founder of the G7 Research Group “A valuable antidote to complacency for policy-makers, scholars and students.” —Timothy J. Sinclair, University of Warwick, UK This book examines the long-term, previously underappreciated breakdowns in financial regulation that fed into the 2008 global financial crash. While most related literature focuses on short-term factors such as the housing bubble, low interest rates, the breakdown of credit rating services and the emergence of new financial instruments, the authors of this volume contend that the larger trends in finance which continue today are most relevant to understanding the crash. Their analysis focuses on regulatory capture, moral hazard and the reflexive challenges of regulatory intervention in order to demonstrate that financial regulation suffers from long-standing, unaddressed and fundamental weaknesses.
Download or read book The Development Dimension Sector Financing in the SDG Era written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2018-11-20 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are highly intertwined with sectors such as health, education, energy or agriculture. Hence, measuring official development finance (ODF) flowing to sectors is critical to designing efficient development strategies in the SDG era.
Download or read book beyond aid new sources and innovative mechanisms for financing development in sub saharan africa written by dilip ratha, sanket mahaparra, sonia plaza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crisis Risk and Stability in Financial Markets written by Juan Fernández de Guevara Radoselovics and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an in-depth appreciation of key topics related to the behaviour of financial institutions in the crisis and stresses areas of major research interest. It covers a selection of papers specialising ranging from the analysis of bank and stock market performance in the crisis, to other areas such as microinsurance and social lending.
Download or read book Africa at a Turning Point written by Delfin Sia Go and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-04-14 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid-1990s, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an acceleration of economic growth that has produced rising incomes and faster human development. However, this growth contrasts with the continent's experience between 1975 and 1995, when it largely missed out on two decades of economic progress. This disparity between Africa's current experience and its history raises questions about the continent's development. Is there a turnaround in Africa s economy? Will growth persist? 'Africa at a Turning Point?' is a collection of essays that analyzes three interrelated aspects of Africa's recent revival. The first set of essays examines Africa's recent growth in the context of its history of growth accelerations and collapses. It seeks to answer such questions as, is Africa at a turning point? Are the economic fundamentals finally pointing toward more sustainable growth? The second set of essays looks at donor flows, which play a large role in Africa's growth. These essays focus on such issues as the management and delivery of increased aid, and the history and volatility of donor flows to Africa. The third set of essays considers the recent impact of one persistent threat to sustained growth in Africa: commodity price shocks, particularly those resulting from fluctuations in oil prices.
Download or read book Credit Growth in Emerging Europe written by Sophie Sirtaine and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.
Download or read book Remittance Markets in Africa written by Sanket Mohapatra and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Remittances sent by African migrants have become an important source of external finance for countries in the Sub-Saharan African region. In many African countries, these flows are larger than foreign direct investment and portfolio debt and equity flows. In some cases, they are similar in size to official aid from multilateral and bilateral donors. Remittance markets in Africa, however, remain less developed than other regions. The share of informal or unrecorded remittances is among the highest for Sub-Saharan African countries. Remittance costs tend to be significantly higher in Africa both for sending remittances from outside the region and for within-Africa (South-South) remittance corridors. At the same time, the remittance landscape in Africa is rapidly changing with the introduction of new remittance technologies, in particular mobile money transfers and branchless banking. This book presents findings of surveys of remittance service providers conducted in eight Sub-Saharan African countries and in three key destination countries. It looks at issues relating to costs, competition, innovation and regulation, and discusses policy options for leveraging remittances for development in Africa.
Download or read book Customer Market Power and the Provision of Trade Credit written by Neeltje van Horen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics show that the sale of goods on credit is widespread among firms even when they are capital constrained and thus face relatively high costs in providing trade credit. This study provides an explanation for this by arguing that customers who possess strong market power are able to increase their customer surplus by demanding to purchase the goods on credit. This gain in customer surplus increases with the degree of asymmetric information between buyer and seller with respect to product quality. Therefore, firms that are perceived as risky are especially subject to the market power of the customer and have to sell their goods on credit. Using detailed firm-level data from a large number of firms in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, this study finds evidence consistent with this hypothesis. It finds a strong positive correlation between customer market power and trade credit provision. Furthermore, this relationship is especially strong when the supplier is more risky and in countries with limited financial sector development or a weak legal system.
Download or read book Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging market economies. We assess how sovereign risk affects corporate access to international capital markets, in the form of external credit (loans and bond issuances) and equity issuances. The study first analyzes the impact of sovereign debt crises during the 1980s and 1990s. It goes on to examine the 1993 to 2007 period, using additional measures of sovereign risk-sovereign bond spreads and sovereign ratings-as explanatory variables. Overall, we find that sovereign default risk is a crucial determinant of private sector access to capital, be it external debt or equity. We also find that crisis resolution patterns matter and that defaults towards private creditors have stronger adverse consequences than defaults to official creditors.