Download or read book Sentiment Across Asset Markets written by Dashan Huang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we study investor sentiment in five major asset markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and housing. Based on Thomson Reuter's sentiment measures extracted from 235 news and social media sources, we find that each market is predicted by its own sentiment. Cross-markets, kitchen sink regressions reveal that the stock market is influenced only by bond sentiment, while bond market is affected just by currency market, which is largely unexplained by others; the commodities are related to currencies and housing, and housing can be predicted by stock and bond sentiment. In an efficient information aggregation by the partial least square (PLS), the predictability of each market increases substantially by using information of all markets vs using only its own sentiment.
Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.
Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.
Download or read book Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices written by Samuel P. Fraiberger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.
Download or read book Inefficient Markets written by Andrei Shleifer and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-03-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.
Download or read book Sentiments and Asset Markets written by Haritima Chauhan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of sentiments to impact macroeconomic activity and financial markets is unequivocally recognized. Economists and policymakers alike, agree that the extended periods of pessimistic sentiments impeded the economic recovery after the Great Recession. Despite this knowledge, there is still much more to know about the mechanisms by which these unpredictable changes in confidence perpetuate in economic and financial systems. It is also imperative to learn how to measure the exogenous shifts in the market sentiments and the sensitivity of asset prices and macroeconomic variables to them. This dissertation examines the sentiments in two ways. Using social network data, this work presents methods to identify sentiments of influential investors and highlight the effects of the stated opinions on the broader stock market and on individual securities. This paper concludes that these high-frequency sentiments influence prices and there are incremental benefits of recognizing investor heterogeneity in such analyses. The other research presents a production economy asset pricing model and elaborates on the interplay of macroeconomic and asset market observations with the changes in consumer preferences. The results reveal significant and persistent risks to the changes in market sentiments and simultaneously explain major moments of economic and financial series.
Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
Download or read book Exploiting Investor Sentiment for Portfolio Optimization written by Nicolas Banholzer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-17 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Mathematics - Statistics, grade: 1.0, University of Augsburg (Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Lehrstuhl für Statistik), language: English, abstract: In efficient financial markets, there is no room for sentimental investors. Any new information would be immediately absorbed and any mispricing immediately corrected by the forces of rational arbitrageurs doing the maths with the fundamentals. But why should financial markets be different from any other market where humans interact and are subject to psychological biases? There is strong empirical evidence that investor sentiment, broadly defined as "a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand", plays an important role in financial markets. It can lead to significant overpricing/underpricing, particularly of assets prone to subjective valuations. With limits/risks to arbitrage in the short term, prices rather correct over the medium to long term as sentimental beliefs mean-revert. Building on the studies by Baker and Wurgler 2006 and Baker, Wurgler, and Y. Yuan 2012, measures of investor sentiment for international markets are constructed. Using the Copula Opinion Pooling approach developed by Attilio Meucci, this thesis shows how to incorporate these sentiment measures into portfolio optimization. Thereby, a sentiment-based trading strategy that exploits the medium-term reversal effect of sentiment is developed and empirically tested. The results are promising as they provide strong evidence that sentiment contains beneficial information that should not be neglected by quantitative portfolio managers.
Download or read book Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior written by Matthias Burghardt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-16 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a unique data set consisting of more than 36.5 million submitted retail investor orders over the course of five years, Matthias Burghardt constructs an innovative retail investor sentiment index. He shows that retail investors’ trading decisions are correlated, that retail investors are contrarians, and that a profitable trading strategy can be based on these aggregated sentiment measures.
Download or read book The Role of Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing written by Chien-Wei Ho and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates various roles that investor sentiment may play in asset pricing. The empirical analysis consists of three main parts based on the role of investor sentiment in the stock markets. The first part discusses the role of investor sentiment as conditioning information. It aims to examine its ability to explain the dynamic nature of the expected returns for individual stocks and its explanatory power capture the financial market anomalies such as the size, value, liquidity, and effects. The second part focuses on the role of investor sentiment as a risk factor. The purpose is to construct a risk factor on the basis of investor sentiment and test whether this proposed sentiment factor is priced and helps to explain the aforementioned financial market anomalies. The third part explores the role of investor sentiment in different international stock markets. It attempts to assess the extent to which investor sentiment affects the stock market volatility and returns of different regions. The results suggest that investor sentiment exhibits explanatory power for cross section of stock returns in the U.S. market. Acting as conditioning information or a risk factor, investor sentiment can generally capture the size and value effects. Furthermore, it can also capture the momentum effect under certain model specifications. The thesis shows that investors require compensation for bearing noise traders; in other words, investor sentiment is a priced factor. At the market level, the impacts of investor sentiment on stock volatility and returns vary across countries. For some countries investor sentiment affects both volatility and returns while for the others investor sentiment has less influence on stock price behaviour. Overall, the findings of the thesis provide empirical evidence that overlooking the role of investor sentiment in classical finance theory could lead to an imperfect picture of describing the stock price behaviour.
Download or read book MarketPsych written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-07-30 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An investor's guide to understanding the most elusive (yet most important) aspect of successful investing - yourself. Why is it that the investing performance of so many smart people reliably and predictably falls short? The answer is not that they know too little about the markets. In fact, they know too little about themselves. Combining the latest findings from the academic fields of behavioral finance and experimental psychology with the down-and-dirty real-world wisdom of successful investors, Drs. Richard Peterson and Frank Murtha guide both new and experienced investors through the psychological learning process necessary to achieve their financial goals. In an easy and entertaining style that masks the book’s scientific rigor, the authors make complex scientific insights readily understandable and actionable, shattering a number of investing myths along the way. You will gain understanding of your true investing motivations, learn to avoid the unseen forces that subvert your performance, and build your investor identity - the foundation for long-lasting investing success. Replete with humorous games, insightful self-assessments, entertaining exercises, and concrete planning tools, this book goes beyond mere education. MarketPsych: How to Manage Fear and Build Your Investor Identity functions as a psychological outfitter for your unique investing journey, providing the tools, training and equipment to help you navigate the right paths, stay on them, and see your journey through to success.
Download or read book Advanced Positioning Flow and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets written by Mark J. S. Keenan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-02-18 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive book on Positioning Analysis — a powerful and sophisticated framework to help traders, investors and risk managers better understand commodity markets Positioning Analysis is a powerful framework to better understand commodity price dynamics, risk, and sentiment. It indicates what each category of trader is doing—what they are trading, how much they are trading and how they might behave under a variety of different circumstances. It is essential in isolating specific types of flow patterns, defining behavioral responses, measuring shifts in sentiment, and developing tools for better risk management. Advanced Positioning, Flow and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets explains the fundamentals of Positioning Analysis and presents new concepts in Commodity Positioning Analytics. This invaluable guide helps readers recognize how certain types of positioning patterns can be used to develop models, indicators, and analyses that can be used to enhance performance. This updated second edition contains substantial new material, including analytics based on the analysis of flow, the decomposition of trading flows, trading activity in the Chinese commodity markets, and the inclusion of Newsflow into Positioning Analysis. Author: Mark J S Keenan, also covers the structure of positioning data, performance attribution of speculators, sentiment analysis and the identification of price risks and behavioral patterns that can be used to generate trading signals.. This must-have resource: Offers intuitive and accessible guidance to commodity market participants and risk managers at various levels and diverse areas of the market Provides a wide range of analytics that can be used directly or integrated into a variety of different commodity-related trading, investment, and risk management programs Features an online platform comprising a wide range of customizable, regularly-updated analytical tools Contains an abundance of exceptional graphics, charts, and illustrations Includes easy-to-follow instructions for building analytics. Advanced Positioning, Flow and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets: Bridging Fundamental and Technical Analysis, 2nd Edition is an indispensable source of information for all types of commodity traders, investors, and speculators, as well as investors in other asset classes who look to the commodity markets for price information.
Download or read book Emergent Sentiment in Financial Markets written by Jie Ren and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, substantial research has established the importance of sentiment in financial markets. We know that sentiment impacts investor decisions; because of advanced text mining and sentiment analysis techniques, automated trading strategies based on sentiment are prevalent. However, we know little about how sentiment emerges. The news media, the markets, and social media are all understood to contribute to overall sentiment, but the exact mechanisms at play remain largely unknown. Understanding the mechanism of sentiment emergence is critical to build systems to support investors' decision making and to ensure that markets function well and are resistant to attempts to manipulate sentiment. We studied one piece of the puzzle and examined sentiment flow from social media to mass media. We studied two years (2013 to 2014) of data from Sina Weibo and Sina Finance. After controlling for the direction of influence from mass media to social media and also for stock performance, we found that in the stock market, social media sentiment affects mass media sentiment the next day. Moreover, this impact is stronger for attention-grabbing stocks. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to sentiment emergence and a broader demand-driven media bias perspective.
Download or read book Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices written by Samuel P. Fraiberger and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Importance of Fear written by Lee A. Smales and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of investor sentiment pushes asset prices away from the equilibrium level justified by underlying fundamentals. While sentiment is not directly observable, identifying appropriate proxies and, quantifying the impact of sentiment on asset prices is an important topic. Asset prices that do not appropriately reflect fundamental values may result in inefficient allocation of capital - impacting portfolio allocation decisions and the cost of capital. Utilising a number of sentiment proxies, over the period 1990-2015, we demonstrate a strong relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns that is consistent with theoretical explanations of sentiment. We determine that VIX is the preferred measure of sentiment in terms of improving model fit and adding explanatory power. Causality tests suggest that investor fear (VIX) drives returns across firm-size and value, and also across industry. We also illustrate that firms that are more subjective to value, or face limits to arbitrage, such as small-cap stocks, or those in the business equipment (technology) or telecoms industry, are most responsive to changes investor sentiment. Finally, we demonstrate that sentiment has a greater influence on market returns during recession, when sentiment is at its lowest ebb, and this is particularly true for those stocks most susceptible to speculative demand.
Download or read book Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading written by H. Nejat Seyhun and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000-02-28 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to profit from information about insider trading. The term insider trading refers to the stock transactions of the officers, directors, and large shareholders of a firm. Many investors believe that corporate insiders, informed about their firms' prospects, buy and sell their own firm's stock at favorable times, reaping significant profits. Given the extra costs and risks of an active trading strategy, the key question for stock market investors is whether the publicly available insider-trading information can help them to outperform a simple passive index fund. Basing his insights on an exhaustive data set that captures information on all reported insider trading in all publicly held firms over the past twenty-one years—over one million transactions!—H. Nejat Seyhun shows how investors can use insider information to their advantage. He documents the magnitude and duration of the stock price movements following insider trading, determinants of insiders' profits, and the risks associated with imitating insider trading. He looks at the likely performance of individual firms and of the overall stock market, and compares the value of what one can learn from insider trading with commonly used measures of value such as price-earnings ratio, book-to-market ratio, and dividend yield.
Download or read book Sentiment Measures and Asset Pricing written by Luigi Croce and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis builds on the results of empirical behavioral finance research to shed light on the concept of market sentiment, and to identify and analyze the proxies best suited to capture its effect on asset prices. Market sentiment refers to an irrational behavior of investors, whose causes are divided by behavioral finance literature into two broad categories: biases in expectations' formation and risk preferences not in line with the maxims of expected utility theory. Each proxy of market sentiment is then analyzed considering its ability to capture these two facets of investors' deviations from rationality. No uncontroversial proxy of market sentiment exists; however, it appears that certain classes of proxies are better suited to capture investors' biases in expectations' formation and other better capture changing levels of investors' risk attitude. This master thesis then builds on the conclusions of its initial analysis to investigate whether sentiment could ameliorate the performance of asset pricing models. Traditional asset pricing models, such as the Charart four-factors model, are founded on the idea that asset returns depend on fundamental asset characteristics and should account for observed repeated mispricing in asset markets. Sentiment, interpreted as investors' biases in expectations' formation and measured through the news'-based Ravenpack index, can be interpreted as a repeated mispricing and tested as an additional risk factor to a Charart four-factor model. Alternatively, sentiment, considered as changing levels of investors' risk attitude and measured either by the Baker-Wurgler Index or by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, can influence factors' risk premia and is tested as an explanatory variable of risk-premia time-series. Results show that sentiment retains explanatory power as an additional risk factor during the 2000 to 2009 period in the US stock market, and that it provides sign.
