Download or read book An Introduction to Causal Inference written by Judea Pearl and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attribution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1.

Download or read book Targeted Learning written by Mark J. van der Laan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-17 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies.

Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Download or read book Unbroken Circles written by Cecilia B. Loving and published by . This book was released on 2020-03-31 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A book of poetry dedicated to the restorative justice practice of circle-keeping.

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics written by Judea Pearl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-25 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.

Download or read book Cause and Explanation in Ancient Greek Thought written by R. J. Hankinson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: R. J. Hankinson traces the history of ancient Greek thinking about causation and explanation, from its earliest beginnings through more than a thousand years to the middle of the first millennium of the Christian era. He examines ways in which the Ancient Greeks dealt with questions about how and why things happen as and when they do, about the basic constitution and structure of things, about function and purpose, laws of nature, chance, coincidence, and responsibility.

Download or read book Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Expertfit Software written by Averill Law and published by McGraw-Hill Science/Engineering/Math. This book was released on 2006-07-21 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the publication of the first edition in 1982, the goal of Simulation Modeling and Analysis has always been to provide a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, and technically correct treatment of all important aspects of a simulation study. The book strives to make this material understandable by the use of intuition and numerous figures, examples, and problems. It is equally well suited for use in university courses, simulation practice, and self study. The book is widely regarded as the “bible” of simulation and now has more than 100,000 copies in print. The book can serve as the primary text for a variety of courses; for example: • A first course in simulation at the junior, senior, or beginning-graduate-student level in engineering, manufacturing, business, or computer science (Chaps. 1 through 4, and parts of Chaps. 5 through 9). At the end of such a course, the students will be prepared to carry out complete and effective simulation studies, and to take advanced simulation courses. • A second course in simulation for graduate students in any of the above disciplines (most of Chaps. 5 through 12). After completing this course, the student should be familiar with the more advanced methodological issues involved in a simulation study, and should be prepared to understand and conduct simulation research. • An introduction to simulation as part of a general course in operations research or management science (part of Chaps. 1, 3, 5, 6, and 9).

Download or read book Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-09-03 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data mining of massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, entertainment, cybersecurity and national intelligence. Collections of documents, images, videos, and networks are being thought of not merely as bit strings to be stored, indexed, and retrieved, but as potential sources of discovery and knowledge, requiring sophisticated analysis techniques that go far beyond classical indexing and keyword counting, aiming to find relational and semantic interpretations of the phenomena underlying the data. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis examines the frontier of analyzing massive amounts of data, whether in a static database or streaming through a system. Data at that scale-terabytes and petabytes-is increasingly common in science (e.g., particle physics, remote sensing, genomics), Internet commerce, business analytics, national security, communications, and elsewhere. The tools that work to infer knowledge from data at smaller scales do not necessarily work, or work well, at such massive scale. New tools, skills, and approaches are necessary, and this report identifies many of them, plus promising research directions to explore. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis discusses pitfalls in trying to infer knowledge from massive data, and it characterizes seven major classes of computation that are common in the analysis of massive data. Overall, this report illustrates the cross-disciplinary knowledge-from computer science, statistics, machine learning, and application disciplines-that must be brought to bear to make useful inferences from massive data.

Download or read book Causation Prediction and Search written by Peter Spirtes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.

Download or read book Elements of Causal Inference written by Jonas Peters and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-29 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning. The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.

Download or read book The Behavioral and Social Sciences written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1988-02-01 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores the scientific frontiers and leading edges of research across the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, psychology, sociology, history, business, education, geography, law, and psychiatry, as well as the newer, more specialized areas of artificial intelligence, child development, cognitive science, communications, demography, linguistics, and management and decision science. It includes recommendations concerning new resources, facilities, and programs that may be needed over the next several years to ensure rapid progress and provide a high level of returns to basic research.

Download or read book All of Statistics written by Larry Wasserman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taken literally, the title "All of Statistics" is an exaggeration. But in spirit, the title is apt, as the book does cover a much broader range of topics than a typical introductory book on mathematical statistics. This book is for people who want to learn probability and statistics quickly. It is suitable for graduate or advanced undergraduate students in computer science, mathematics, statistics, and related disciplines. The book includes modern topics like non-parametric curve estimation, bootstrapping, and classification, topics that are usually relegated to follow-up courses. The reader is presumed to know calculus and a little linear algebra. No previous knowledge of probability and statistics is required. Statistics, data mining, and machine learning are all concerned with collecting and analysing data.

Download or read book Modern Analysis of Customer Surveys written by Ron S. Kenett and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-30 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Customer survey studies deals with customers, consumers and user satisfaction from a product or service. In practice, many of the customer surveys conducted by business and industry are analyzed in a very simple way, without using models or statistical methods. Typical reports include descriptive statistics and basic graphical displays. As demonstrated in this book, integrating such basic analysis with more advanced tools, provides insights on non-obvious patterns and important relationships between the survey variables. This knowledge can significantly affect the conclusions derived from a survey. Key features: Provides an integrated, case-studies based approach to analysing customer survey data. Presents a general introduction to customer surveys, within an organization’s business cycle. Contains classical techniques with modern and non standard tools. Focuses on probabilistic techniques from the area of statistics/data analysis and covers all major recent developments. Accompanied by a supporting website containing datasets and R scripts. Customer survey specialists, quality managers and market researchers will benefit from this book as well as specialists in marketing, data mining and business intelligence fields.

Download or read book Social Science Research written by Anol Bhattacherjee and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to introduce doctoral and graduate students to the process of conducting scientific research in the social sciences, business, education, public health, and related disciplines. It is a one-stop, comprehensive, and compact source for foundational concepts in behavioral research, and can serve as a stand-alone text or as a supplement to research readings in any doctoral seminar or research methods class. This book is currently used as a research text at universities on six continents and will shortly be available in nine different languages.

Download or read book Matched Sampling for Causal Effects written by Donald B. Rubin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-09-04 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Matched sampling is often used to help assess the causal effect of some exposure or intervention, typically when randomized experiments are not available or cannot be conducted. This book presents a selection of Donald B. Rubin's research articles on matched sampling, from the early 1970s, when the author was one of the major researchers involved in establishing the field, to recent contributions to this now extremely active area. The articles include fundamental theoretical studies that have become classics, important extensions, and real applications that range from breast cancer treatments to tobacco litigation to studies of criminal tendencies. They are organized into seven parts, each with an introduction by the author that provides historical and personal context and discusses the relevance of the work today. A concluding essay offers advice to investigators designing observational studies. The book provides an accessible introduction to the study of matched sampling and will be an indispensable reference for students and researchers.

Download or read book Structural Equation Models written by J. Christopher Westland and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-25 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compact reference surveys the full range of available structural equation modeling (SEM) methodologies. It reviews applications in a broad range of disciplines, particularly in the social sciences where many key concepts are not directly observable. This is the first book to present SEM’s development in its proper historical context–essential to understanding the application, strengths and weaknesses of each particular method. This book also surveys the emerging path and network approaches that complement and enhance SEM, and that will grow importance in the near future. SEM’s ability to accommodate unobservable theory constructs through latent variables is of significant importance to social scientists. Latent variable theory and application are comprehensively explained and methods are presented for extending their power, including guidelines for data preparation, sample size calculation and the special treatment of Likert scale data. Tables of software, methodologies and fit statistics provide a concise reference for any research program, helping assure that its conclusions are defensible and publishable.