Download or read book Self Fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-08-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Download or read book Inside the Dementia Epidemic written by Martha Stettinius and published by Dundee-Lakemont Press. This book was released on 2012-07-23 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One in 8 people over age 65 has Alzheimer's disease, and nearly fifty percent of those over age 85. With the passion of a committed daughter and the fervor of a tireless reporter, Martha Stettinius weaves a compelling story of her long journey caregiving for her demented mother with a broad exploration of the causes of dementia, means of treating it, and hopes for preventing it. Her greatest gift to readers is that of optimism that caregiving can deepen love, that dementia can be fought, and that families can be strengthened. Her book is appealing, enlightening, and inspiring. Includes appendices on dementia research; source notes; resources for caregivers; and an index.
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Neurocritical Care written by Eelco F. M. Wijdicks and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of the "What Do I Do Now?" series, Neurocritical Care provides insight into interventions in acute neurologic disorders. Using a case-based approach, this volume emphasizes how to handle comparatively common clinical problems emergently.
Download or read book A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises written by Juan Yepez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Download or read book Data Driven Personalisation in Markets Politics and Law written by Uta Kohl and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-29 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most fascinating and profitable subject of predictive algorithms is the human actor. Analysing big data through learning algorithms to predict and pre-empt individual decisions gives a powerful tool to corporations, political parties and the state. Algorithmic analysis of digital footprints, as an omnipresent form of surveillance, has already been used in diverse contexts: behavioural advertising, personalised pricing, political micro-targeting, precision medicine, and predictive policing and prison sentencing. This volume brings together experts to offer philosophical, sociological, and legal perspectives on these personalised data practices. It explores common themes such as choice, personal autonomy, equality, privacy, and corporate and governmental efficiency against the normative frameworks of the market, democracy and the rule of law. By offering these insights, this collection on data-driven personalisation seeks to stimulate an interdisciplinary debate on one of the most pervasive, transformative, and insidious socio-technical developments of our time.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Prediction Learning and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
Download or read book Evidence based Diagnosis written by Thomas B. Newman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-25 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the mathematics involved in understanding and choosing an array of diagnostic and prognostic tests, in order to improve treatment.
Download or read book Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises The Role of Early Warning Systems written by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
Download or read book Corporate Financial Distress Restructuring and Bankruptcy written by Edward I. Altman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-02-27 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive look at the enormous growth and evolution of distressed debt markets, corporate bankruptcy, and credit risk models This Fourth Edition of the most authoritative finance book on the topic updates and expands its discussion of financial distress and bankruptcy, as well as the related topics dealing with leveraged finance, high-yield, and distressed debt markets. It offers state-of-the-art analysis and research on U.S. and international restructurings, applications of distress prediction models in financial and managerial markets, bankruptcy costs, restructuring outcomes, and more.
Download or read book Encoding Bioethics written by Charles Binkley and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-06-25 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Encoding Bioethics addresses important ethical concerns from the perspective of each of the stakeholders who will develop, deploy, and use artificial intelligence systems to support clinical decisions. Utilizing an applied ethical model of patient-centered care, this book considers the viewpoints of programmers, health system and health insurance leaders, clinicians, and patients when AI is used in clinical decision-making. The authors build on their respective experiences as a surgeon-bioethicist and a surgeon-AI developer to give the reader an accessible account of the relevant ethical considerations raised when AI systems are introduced into the physician-patient relationship.
Download or read book Lectures in International Finance written by Paul R. Masson and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sixteen-year-old Keysha Kendall is a judge's signature away from foster care when she's sent to live with the father she never knew. Suddenly she has her own room in his big fancy house, a high-powered stepmother and a popular half brother who can introduce her to all the right people at her new school. But Keysha can't forget where she came from. And she won't let anyone else, either. Why should her father and his perfect family have it so easy when she and her mother had it so hard? And so Keysha hooks up with a rough crowd and does whatever she wants'until what she wants changes real fast'.
Download or read book Prediction in Criminology written by David P. Farrington and published by SUNY Press. This book was released on 1985-01-01 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction in Criminology is the first book to bring together a wide variety of articles on prediction research in criminology. It stresses not only substantive findings but also the methodology of prediction research, and demonstrates how similar issues arise in many applications: problems of research design, the choice of predictor and criterion variables, methods of selecting and combining variables into a prediction instrument, measures of predictive efficiency, and external validity or generalizability. The collection includes research from the United States, Canada, and Great Britain and will be of interest to an international audience of policy makers, practitioners, academics, and researchers.
Download or read book Risk Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
