Download or read book Second Thoughts on Second Moments written by Arturo J. Galindo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 1998 The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia. One strand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional flow factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the global landscape, and that exchange-rate levels and current accounts have not proved convincing as proximate causes of crises. Galindo and Maloney test two popular asset-based models of speculative attacks-Krugman and Rotemberg (1992) and Calvo and Mendoza (1995)-especially their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates. Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, they find evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, and their variance as predicted by Calvo and Mendoza. But the variance of velocity does not appear to be important, casting some doubt on the Krugman-Rotemberg target zone framework and the interpretation of the Calvo-Mendoza results. This paper-a product of the Poverty and Economic Management Unit of the Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the determinants of macroeconomic instability. William Maloney may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book Second Thoughts written by Lynn Berger and published by Henry Holt and Company. This book was released on 2021-04-20 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lovely, searching meditation on second children—on whether to have one and what it means to be one—that seamlessly weaves pieces of art and culture on the topic with scientific research and personal anecdotes The decision to have more than one child is at least as consuming as the decision to have a child at all—and yet for all the good books that deliberate on the choice of becoming a parent, there is far less writing on the choice of becoming a parent of two, and all the questions that arise during the process. Is there any truth in the idea of character informed by birth order, or the loneliness of only children? What is the reality of sibling rivalry? What might a parent to one, or two, come to regret? Lynn Berger is here to fill that gap with the curious, reflective Second Thoughts. Grounded in autobiography and full of considered allusion, careful investigation and generous candor, it’s an exploration specifically dedicated to second children and their particular, too often forgotten lot. Warm and wise, intimate and universal at once, it’s a must read for parents-to-be and want-to-be, parents of one, parents of two or more, and second children themselves.
Download or read book Second Thoughts Sociology Challenges Conventional Wisdom written by Janet M. Ruane and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2011-06-07 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do birds of a feather flock together or do opposites attract? Does haste make waste or should you strike while the iron is hot? Adages like these—or conventional wisdoms—shape our social life. This Fifth Edition of Second Thoughts reviews several popular beliefs and notes how such adages cannot be taken at face value. This unique text encourages students to step back and sharpen their analytic focus with 24 essays that use social research to expose the gray areas of commonly held beliefs, revealing the complexity of social reality and sharpening students’ sociological vision.
Download or read book On Second Thought written by Wray Herbert and published by Crown. This book was released on 2011-09-06 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our lives are composed of millions of choices, ranging from trivial to life-changing and momentous. Luckily, our brains have evolved a number of mental shortcuts, biases, and tricks that allow us to quickly negotiate this endless array of decisions. We don’t want to rationally deliberate every choice we make, and thanks to these cognitive rules of thumb, we don’t need to. Yet these hard-wired shortcuts, mental wonders though they may be, can also be perilous. They can distort our thinking in ways that are often invisible to us, leading us to make poor decisions, to be easy targets for manipulators…and they can even cost us our lives. The truth is, despite all the buzz about the power of gut-instinct decision-making in recent years, sometimes it’s better to stop and say, “On second thought . . .” The trick, of course, lies in knowing when to trust that instant response, and when to question it. In On Second Thought, acclaimed science writer Wray Herbert provides the first guide to achieving that balance. Drawing on real-world examples and cutting-edge research, he takes us on a fascinating, wide-ranging journey through our innate cognitive traps and tools, exposing the hidden dangers lurking in familiarity and consistency; the obstacles that keep us from accurately evaluating risk and value; the delusions that make it hard for us to accurately predict the future; the perils of the human yearning for order and simplicity; the ways our fears can color our very perceptions . . . and much more. Along the way, Herbert reveals the often-bizarre cross-connections these shortcuts have secretly ingrained in our brains, answering such questions as why jury decisions may be shaped by our ancient need for cleanliness; what the state of your desk has to do with your political preferences; why loneliness can literally make us shiver; how drawing two dots on a piece of paper can desensitize us to violence… and how the very typeface on this page is affecting your decision about whether or not to buy this book. Ultimately, On Second Thought is both a captivating exploration of the workings of the mind and an invaluable resource for anyone who wants to learn how to make smarter, better judgments every day.
Download or read book On Second Thought written by Kristan Higgins and published by HQN Books. This book was released on 2017-01-31 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New York Times–Bestselling Author: “Emotional depth is seared into every page along with wry banter, bringing readers to tears and smiles.” —Library Journal (starred review) Ainsley O’Leary is so ready to get married—she’s even found the engagement ring her boyfriend has stashed away. What she doesn’t anticipate, after eleven years together during which she nursed him through cancer, is being blindsided by a breakup that he chronicles in a blog . . . which (of course) goes viral. Devastated and humiliated, Ainsley moves in with her older half sister, Kate, who’s struggling with a sudden loss of her own in upstate New York. Kate’s always been the poised, self-assured sister, but becoming a newlywed—and a widow—in the space of four months overwhelms her. Though the sisters were never close, she starts to confide in Ainsley, especially when she learns her late husband was keeping a secret from her. Despite the murky blended-family dynamic that’s always separated them, Ainsley’s and Kate’s heartaches will bind their summer together as they come to terms with the inevitable imperfection of relationships and family—and the possibility of one day finding love again . . . . “Higgins’s page-turner highlights both the complexity of family relationships and the intense power of love.” —Publishers Weekly “A captivating read about two sisters dealing with love, loss and new beginnings. What sets this book apart is how one event changes both women’s lives. Kate is refreshingly frank in her inner monologue, and Ainsley is charmingly self-aware and wry.” —RT Book Reviews, 5 stars (Top Pick) “Higgins’ complex, witty characters will seem like close friends, and readers will savor each and every page . . . [Higgins is a] women’s-fiction star.” —Booklist (starred review)
Download or read book Second Thoughts about the Second Coming written by Ronald J. Allen and published by Presbyterian Publishing Corp. This book was released on 2023-02-28 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Various ideas float around about the subject of last things, leading many Christians to conclude that they don’t know what to think about the subject. Yet at the core of the Christian doctrine of last things lies two simple and complementary hopes: that God ever and always offers hope for our individual futures and for the future of the whole world. In this helpful book, Allen and Cornwall explain how we don’t have to subscribe to sensationalist theories or sketchy interpretations to believe in Christian hope. They walk the reader through the central biblical teachings on last things and then show the ways the church has interpreted those teachings throughout the centuries. In a respectful way, the authors demonstrate that end-time beliefs centered on the Rapture came into existence only recently, and they then offer several more life-affirming, contemporary interpretations as alternatives. The book includes a study guide and web-based appendixes designed to help pastors develop both topical and lectionary-based sermon series on Christian hope.
Download or read book Second Thoughts written by Margot Dalton and published by MIRA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everybody's guilty of something, and now somebody's guilty of murder.
Download or read book Second Thoughts and the Epistemological Enterprise written by Hilary Kornblith and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-06 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Collected essays showing how social psychology illuminates epistemological problems, focusing on issues of self-knowledge and the nature of human reason. The book features specific examples of sceptical problems and also includes two entirely new essays. It will appeal to pyschologists as well philosophers.
Download or read book Shoes Outside the Door written by Michael Downing and published by Catapult. This book was released on 2002-08-15 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A close-up look at the scandals that rocked the San Francisco Zen Center, a leader in alternative religious practice and the counterculture in America, and their repercussions. The remarkable forty-year history of the people who established the first Buddhist monastery outside of Asia in the history of the world has never been told. Michael Downing wondered why. "I'm living proof of why you better not speak out," explained one ordained Zen priest. "The degree to which I was scapegoated publicly was most effective in keeping everyone else quiet." In 1959, a Soto Zen priest took leave of his family in Japan to minister to the congregation of a Buddhist temple in San Francisco. Alan Watts and others spread the word that an authentic Zen Roshi was living there, and students, poets, drifters, and seekers began to attend his lectures. Impressed by their sincerity and commitment, Suzuki Roshi began to offer instruction in zazen (meditation) and other Buddhist practices to these devoted young spiritual pioneers. The San Francisco Zen Center was born. And then, in 1983, meltdown. A sex scandal rocked Zen Center, and it triggered tragedies and headlines about abuse of power that called into question the whole matter of alternative religious practice in America. Overnight the most prominent community of Buddhists in the West found itself at the vanguard of a cultural revolt against spiritual authority. For Shoes Outside the Door, Michael Downing spent three years studying documents and interviewing more than eighty people who were there, at ground zero. As engaging as any mystery, as mysterious as any political campaign, as political as any family gathering, this story will haunt and challenge readers as they unravel this essential chapter of American history.
Download or read book Ellie Andrews Has Second Thoughts written by Ruth Saberton and published by Orion. This book was released on 2011-05-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does a bride-to-be ever know for certain that she's chosen the right man? 'You won't put it down' CLOSER 'Ellie Andrews Has Second Thoughts is breathlessly wonderful from start to finish, with characters you'll adore and a story you won't want to end' Miranda Dickinson 'I absolutely loved Ellie. Seriously loved her, and that's what Ruth Saberton does best, she gives us a heroine to root for' CHICKLIT REVIEWS Ellie Andrews is finally getting married. Or she will be if she drinks enough champagne to pluck up the courage for her trip down the aisle. The problem is that after months spent bickering over menus and table placements, Ellie's never felt more distant from the man she's supposed to be spending the rest of her life with. As last minute nerves take hold, a night of soul-searching sees Ellie reflecting back on old flames in a bid to reassure herself she's making the right decision. There's Rupert - adoring but dull; Jay - the teenage crush; Marcus - sexy but toxic; and Xander - a true friend. But as the sun rises and the ceremony looms ever closer, Ellie is still unsure if she's doing the right thing. Then an unexpected encounter turns her world upside down. Should she take a chance? Or should she stick with the choices she's made? As Ellie makes her way to the church, only one question remains: who will be waiting for her at the altar?
Download or read book The 5 Second Rule written by Mel Robbins and published by Savio Republic . This book was released on 2017-02-28 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Throughout your life, you've had parents, coaches, teachers, friends, and mentors who have pushed you to be better than your excuses and bigger than your fears. What if the secret to having the confidence and courage to enrich your life and work is simply knowing how to push yourself? Using the science habits, riveting stories and surprising facts from some of the most famous moments in history, art and business, Mel Robbins will explain the power of a "push moment." Then, she'll give you one simple tool you can use to become your greatest self. It take just five seconds to use this tool, and every time you do, you'll be in great company. More than 8 million people have watched Mel's TEDx Talk, and executives inside of the world's largest brands are using the tool to increase productivity, collaboration, and engagement. In The 5 Second Rule, you'll discover it takes just five seconds to: Become confident Break the habit of procrastination and self-doubt Beat fear and uncertainty Stop worrying and feel happier Share your ideas with courage The 5 Second Rule is a simple, one-size-fits-all solution for the one problem we all face—we hold ourselves back. The secret isn't knowing what to do—it's knowing how to make yourself do it. p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Arial}
Download or read book Second Thoughts written by Steve Berman and published by Lethe Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In author Steve Berman's second collection of stories and essays, he once more guides readers through the dark paths of his imagination. In these tales of regret a scent of loneliness entices children to start eating away at a caretaker's historic house, a nursery rhyme tempts a young lover, and a meek accountant finds himself abandoning the mundane life he knew to chase after monsters.
Download or read book Che Moment written by Chris J. Hamilton and published by AuthorHouse. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Life Lessons, Facing Death, and Surviving Cancer (AML M2) Leukemia and beyond. A Medical Reps story of how FAITH, POSITIVE ATTITUDE, and EXERCISE can beat the odds.
Download or read book Divorce Busting written by Michele Weiner Davis and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1993-02 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A step-by-step approach to making your marriage loving again.
Download or read book Evaluating a Targeted Social Program when Placement is Decentralized written by Martin Ravallion and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: July 1998 A social program that relies partly on geographic decentralization for placement provides indicators helpful for identifying the program's impact on welfare. An assessment of the welfare gains from a targeted social program can be seriously biased unless it takes proper account of the endogeneity of program participation. Bias comes from two sources of placement endogeneity: the purposive targeting of the geographic areas to receive the program, and the targeting of individual recipients within selected areas. Decentralization of program placement decisions is common, because of the administrative cost of centralized placement decisions and the fact that local groups and governments are likely to be better informed about who most needs help. But full decentralization is uncommon; the center typically retains control of broad geographic targeting. Ravallion and Wodon argue that partial decentralization of program placement decisions creates control and instrumental variables useful for identifying program benefits. The central allocation to a local level of government is presumably based on observable indicators. The central allocation will also influence the allocation to an individual but is unlikely to determine outcomes at the individual level conditional on individual program participation. So with suitable controls for the welfare-relevant geographic characteristics determining program placement decisions, the center's allocation across areas can be used as an instrumental variable for individual participation. The authors use Bangladesh's Food for Education program to illustrate their approach. A single post-intervention cross-sectional household survey was used to identify the impact of the program on school attendance, using geographic placement at the village level as an instrument for individual program placement. To deal with bias from the endogeneity of village selection, the authors used a detailed community survey coordinated with the household survey to control for likely sources of heterogeneity in geographicinfluences on school attendance, consistent with prior information on how the government targeted the program geographically. They found that the programs had significant and sizable impacts on school attendance. At mean points, the program's incentive increased attendance by 24 percent of the maximum feasible days of schooling. A regression estimator ignoring the purposive program placement was found to result in a substantial underestimation of the program's impact. Indeed, the simplest possible control group method-assuming that nonparticipants provide a valid counterfactual-performed much better than a regression method treating placement as exogenous. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to evaluate the impact of social programs. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Policies for Poor Areas (RPO 681-39). Martin Ravallion may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book Insurance and Liquidity written by Rashmi Shankar and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: "The author presents evidence that balance sheet effects are critical determinants of both the likelihood of a crisis and of income losses following a crisis. She tests the validity of "insurance" and "liquidity" models of currency crisis. Both models predict that the occurrence of a balance of payments crisis is conditional on the health of the nation's accounts in relation to the rest of the world. Problems in the balance sheet either cause a financial crisis that develops into a run on the central bank, or generate a run on the central bank once contingent liabilities exceed reserves and the yield differential moves against domestic assets. Estimations of crisis likelihoods based on several specifications of single and simultaneous equation probit models confirm that output losses following the crisis are persistent and conditional on the balance sheet indicator, that is, the ratio of the stock of gross external liabilities to assets. Measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and financial depth perform well as crisis predictors, and the marginal effects on the probability of a crisis are of the expected sign. The panel data set covers the time period 1973 through 2003 for 90 countries."--World Bank web site.
Download or read book Storyworthy written by Matthew Dicks and published by New World Library. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A five-time Moth GrandSLAM winner and bestselling novelist shows how to tell a great story — and why doing so matters. Whether we realize it or not, we are always telling stories. On a first date or job interview, at a sales presentation or therapy appointment, with family or friends, we are constantly narrating events and interpreting emotions and actions. In this compelling book, storyteller extraordinaire Matthew Dicks presents wonderfully straightforward and engaging tips and techniques for constructing, telling, and polishing stories that will hold the attention of your audience (no matter how big or small). He shows that anyone can learn to be an appealing storyteller, that everyone has something “storyworthy” to express, and, perhaps most important, that the act of creating and telling a tale is a powerful way of understanding and enhancing your own life.
