Download or read book Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On Trend cycle seasonal Interactions written by Jan Jacobs and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Trend Cycle Interaction in Unobserved Components Models written by Max Soloschenko and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Trend Cycle Seasonal Interactions written by Irma Hindrayanto and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists typically use seasonally adjusted data in which the assumption is imposed that seasonality is uncorrelated with trend and cycle. The importance of this assumption has been highlighted by the Great Recession. The paper examines an unobserved components model that permits non-zero correlations between seasonal and nonseasonal shocks. Identification conditions for estimation of the parameters are discussed from the perspectives of both analytical and simulation results. Applications to UK household consumption expenditures and US employment reject the zero correlation restrictions and also show that the correlation assumptions imposed have important implications about the evolution of the trend and cycle in the post-Great Recession period.

Download or read book Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to Us Unemployment written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce a general class of periodic unobserved component (UC) time series models with stochastic trend and seasonal components and with a novel periodic stochastic cycle component. The general state space formulation of the periodic model allows for exact maximum likelihood estimation, signal extraction and forecasting. The consequences for model-based seasonal adjustment are discussed. The new periodic model is applied to postwar monthly US unemployment series from which we identify a significant periodic stochastic cycle. A detailed periodic analysis is presented including a comparison between the performances of periodic and non-periodic UC models.

Download or read book Filtering None Linear State Space Models Methods and Economic Applications written by Kai Ming Lee and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2010 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.

Download or read book Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods written by James Durbin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-03 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a comprehensive treatment of the state space approach to time series analysis. A distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components, which are each modelled separately.

Download or read book Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components written by Matteo M. Pelagatti and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-07-28 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the unobserved components model (UCM) having many advantages over more popular forecasting techniques based on regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA, the UCM is not well known among practitioners outside the academic community. Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components rectifies this deficiency by giving a practical o

Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics written by and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 7493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.

Download or read book Economic Time Series written by William R. Bell and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-11-14 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s

Download or read book On Trend cycle seasonal Interactions written by Irma Hindrayanto and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Seasonality in Human Mortality written by Roland Rau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are a persistent phenomenon, but variations from culture to culture pose fascinating questions. This book investigates whether sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors play a role as important for seasonal mortality as they do for mortality in general. Using modern statistical methods, the book shows, for example, that in the United States the fluctuations between winter and summer mortality are smaller the more years someone has spent in school.

Download or read book Structural and Reduced form Approaches of ARIMA Model Based Seasonal Adjustment Methods written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Two strategies have been followed for the development of model-based seasonal adjustment methods. One, where each of the unobserved components, trend-cycle, seasonal and irregular is assumed to follow a normal stochastic process of the ARIMA class and the other, where the observed data are assumed to follow an ARIMA process and from it similar kind of models are derived for the components. The first approach is known as "structural" and the second, as the "reduced-form" given their similarities to the problems of identification of structures from the data in econometrics. This paper discusses the major properties and operational limitations of these two approaches. It also analyses the salient characteristics of the empirical comparisons made between model-based seasonal adjustment methods and the X-11-ARIMA which is used by the majority of government statistical agencies"--Abstract.

Download or read book Unobserved Components in ARCH Models written by Gabriele Fiorentini and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Unobserved components models for seasonal adjustment filters written by Peter Burridge and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova written by Juan J. Dolado and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.