Download or read book Scoreboard for the Surveillance of Macroeconomic Imbalances written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The design of the initial scoreboard is presented in the first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) issued by the Commission on 14 February 2012. This paper adds to the AMR by describing in more detail the rationale of the different indicators, the choices made in the selection process and how they should be economically understood in the context of the MIP. The scoreboard consists of a set of ten indicators with indicative thresholds: two indicators aim at monitoring external positions, three indicators capture competitiveness developments and the subsequent five indicators reflect internal imbalances." (EU Bookshop).

Download or read book A New Approach to the Scoreboard written by Cosimo Magazzino and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the information content of the variables that can help detecting external and internal imbalances in an early stage. The starting point is the Scoreboard, where nine indicators are chosen in order to increase macroeconomic surveillance of all member states.Design/methodology/Approach - This paper provides an overview of the variables that could be informative for imbalances by focusing on EU-27 countries over the period 1960-2010. The number of chosen variables is 28, and they are aggregated in six macro-areas. Therefore, once an imbalance is observed in any of those areas, it is possible to detect in a simple way which specific variable is determining such outcome.Findings - In general, this approach provides reliable signal to the policy-makers about the indicators that can drive imbalances within the area, shedding light on the relationship among the variables included in the analysis, too.Research Limitations/Implications - In fact, the empirical results underline some well-known critical issue for several countries, and is largely in line with results obtained in a variety of EC and OECD studies.Originality/Value - The main added value of the approach adopted in this paper is the introduction of more variables than those initially proposed by the European Commission in the construction of the Scoreboard. This provides more information about the macroeconomic situation in each country, preserving, however, the simplicity of the analysis as the variables are aggregated by homogeneous areas.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances in Euro and Non Euro Area Member States written by Daniela Bobeva and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent reforms in the European economic governance framework add to the Stability and Growth pact requirements for establishing a new macroeconomic surveillance mechanism for both euro area and non-euro area countries. The early identification and the prevention of imbalances are of vital importance in a monetary union due to the limitations they impose on the tools available to economic policymaking. This paper examines the macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area countries in comparison with the non-euro area countries based on the set of indicators in the Scoreboard that is part of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), introduced in 2011.While the aim of the new alert mechanism is to identify potential risks this study goes further in measuring the level of risks by the scope of the deviation from the established thresholds. For this purpose an Integral Macroeconomic Imbalance Indicator (IMII) is constructed. It serves for comparing the level of imbalances between the countries in pre- and post-crisis period. The composed IMII indicates a tangible reduction in the scale of imbalances as compared to the pre-crisis period but the divergence between the countries enlarges. The results undermine the assumptions that the euro area countries will exhibit fewer imbalances as compared to the countries outside of the monetary union. Based on the dynamics of IMII it could be assumed that maintaining the macroeconomic framework within the thresholds is necessary but not sufficient to prevent future crisis. The results further question the ability of the alert mechanism to identify the sources of a future crisis.

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study employs statistical methods to further develop the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Scoreboard in line with the European Parliaments regulation of 2011, so as to make it an even better information aggregation, decision making and communication tool. The contribution to the literature and ongoing policy debate is threefold. First, we synthesize the current empirical literature and show that the predictive power of the MIP Scoreboard has so-far been limited. Second, we apply the methodology of composite indicators, step-by-step on the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) MIP Database (2005-11, 28 Member States, 11 MIP Indicators). By doing so, we spotted few outliers in the headline database, recommended normalised measures (red flag analysis, distance-to-target) already advocated by the European Commission, and conducted multivariate analysis revealing that MIP indicators are only weakly collinear and it is unlikely that they share common factors. Still, when applying the signals approach, which is a standard technique used by earlier empirical studies, a composite measure of threshold breaches was the available second best indicator to signal crisis events in advance. Third, we found that introducing two sided thresholds could be an obvious choice for some flow variables in the MIP scoreboard to identify imbalances both ex-ante and ex-post (in accordance with the prevention and correction goals of the MIP). Such two sided thresholds have been already introduced for two MIP indicators: for the current account deficit and for the real effective exchange rate. Real house prices, unemployment and private sector credit flow could be further candidates to consider for two sided thresholds.

Download or read book Alert Mechanism Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) marks the first step in implementing the new surveillance procedure for the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances (hereafter called the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure - MIP). This report also contains the final design of the scoreboard of indicators (presented in Table 1 and Section 2). Surveillance to prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances under the MIP is a new instrument of the strengthened framework for economic governance in the EU. It was adopted as part of the so-called 'six-pack' governance package which inter alia also provides for a significant reinforcement of surveillance on fiscal policies. Surveillance on macroeconomic imbalances under the MIP forms part of the 'European semester' which takes an integrated and forward looking approach to the economic policy challenges facing the Union in ensuring fiscal sustainability, competitiveness, financial market stability and economic growth."--Introduction.

Download or read book Indicator Based Monitoring of Regional Economic Integration written by Philippe De Lombaerde and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-02 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together experts from different world regions. It presents various experiences with building indicator systems for monitoring the implementation of regional economic integration policies such as preferential trade areas, common markets or economic and monetary unions. The volume discusses both the technical and governance aspects of such systems, and best practices. The regional experiences that are covered include: the European Union, Eurasia, ASEAN, the East African Community (EAC), COMESA, CARICOM, the African-Caribbean-Pacific Group, and the Americas. In addition, various chapters discuss cross-cutting methodological challenges related to trade-related indicators.

Download or read book An Early detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries written by Katia Berti and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The financial and economic crisis has generated renewed interest, especially among policy-makers, in early-warning systems that could help identifying fiscal and macro-financial vulnerabilities potentially triggering risks. Against this background, this paper presents an early-warning index of fiscal stress, incorporating fiscal, financial and competitiveness variables, some of which are common to the scoreboard used in the EU for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances. Thresholds of fiscal risk are determined, based on the non-parametric signals approach, for the overall index, the two sub-indexes grouping fiscal and financial-competitiveness variables and each individual variable used in the analysis. Values of the overall index beyond its critical threshold pinpoint to potential risks of fiscal stress in the short run, while the analysis at individual variable level allows identifying possible sources of vulnerabilities, which is key to design appropriate risk-mitigating policies. The results obtained highlight the importance of incorporating financial-competitiveness variables in an early-warning system for fiscal stress, as such variables appear to be better "leading indicators" of fiscal stress than fiscal variables are. The results also speak in favour of using an early-warning composite indicator of fiscal stress, rather than looking at the individual variables taken in isolation. Results obtained by applying the proposed methodology to EU countries are presented in the last part of the paper."--Document home page.

Download or read book Monitoring Macroeconomic Imbalances written by Manuela Moschella and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP) with the purpose of assessing its potential effectiveness compared to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance. The comparison reveals that the MIP performs better than the Fund's surveillance in terms of the provision of clear and practical advice, knowledge of domestic polities and ease of activating sanctions. Neither the MIP nor the IMF, however, provide for mechanisms to prevent political considerations from interfering with the activation of sanctions and the distribution of the burden of adjustment. The MIP also does not attenuate problems of asymmetric treatment that create the conditions for public backlashes. Its single-country focus and the limited integration of macroeconomic and financial analysis are further factors that may undermine the effectiveness of the MIP. In the conclusions, the paper reflects on the factors that may help explain the limited incorporation of the lessons available from the Fund's experience into the MIP.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Revisión de la economía italiana con la intención de identificar presentes o potenciales desequilibrios y los posibles riesgos macroeconómicos que pueden implicar.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On 14 February 2012, the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) in accordance with the Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. The AMR serves as an initial screening device to identify Member States that warrant further in depth analysis into whether imbalances exist or risk emerging. According to Article 5 of Regulation No. 1176/2011, these country-specific ?in-depth reviews? should examine the nature, origin and severity of macroeconomic developments in the Member State concerned, which constitute, or could lead to, imbalances. On the basis of this analysis, the Commission concludes whether it considers that an imbalance exists or not, and if so whether it is excessive or not, and what type of follow-up it will recommend to the Council to address to the Member State. This in-depth review concludes that Finland is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be addressed. In particular, macroeconomic developments relating to competitiveness deserve attention so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects on the functioning of the economy.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances Bulgaria written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This in-depth review takes a broad view of the Bulgarian economy in order to identify actual or potential imbalances and the possible macroeconomic risks which they may entail. Following an economic boom in 2006-2008, the necessary adjustment is taking place. But the burden on the labour market is unnecessarily high. Moreover, more needs to be done to ensure the sustainability of the adjustment once the economy recovers to its growth trend. The main observations of this review are: Following EU accession, some notable internal and external imbalances built up in the Bulgarian economy. The labour market has been hit hard by the crisis and the reintegration of low-skilled workers has proven difficult. The main labour market challenges relate to skills mismatches in some sectors and regions. Despite a pronounced deceleration, unit labour cost (ULC) growth remains one of the fastest in the EU. The current account adjustment is largely structural and is driven by sizable export market share gains, but major vulnerabilities remain. Deleveraging of the corporate sector is on-going, but the still high level of indebtedness will lengthen the adjustment process and keep the corporate sector vulnerable to changes in market sentiment. Fiscal policy is facilitating the adjustment process. In this context, the in-depth review concludes that Bulgaria is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be addressed. In particular, the level of external indebtedness as well as certain macroeconomic developments related to corporate sector deleveraging and the adjustment process through labour markets deserve attention so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects on the functioning of the economy. Possible policy responses should focus on reducing skills and regional labour market mismatches and on reviewing the minimum thresholds for social security contributions. Also, emphasis on boosting total factor productivity remains crucial given that the deleveraging of the corporate sector will probably dampen investment. As a small open catching-up economy with unfettered capital flows and a fixed exchange rate tends to be inherently volatile, macroeconomic policies and banking regulation in Bulgaria should focus on reducing the risks of repeating boom-cycles and on strengthening the risk absorption capacity of economic agents.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances Cyprus written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On 14 February 2012, the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) in accordance with the Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. The AMR serves as an initial screening device to identify Member States that warrant further in depth analysis into whether imbalances exist or risk emerging. According to Article 5 of Regulation No. 1176/2011, these country-specific ?in-depth reviews? should examine the nature, origin and severity of macroeconomic developments in the Member State concerned, which constitute, or could lead to, imbalances. On the basis of this analysis, the Commission concludes whether it considers that an imbalance exists or not, and if so whether it is excessive or not, and what type of follow-up it will recommend to the Council to address to the Member State. This in-depth review concludes that Cyprus is experiencing very serious macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be urgently addressed. In particular, macroeconomic developments as reflected in the current account, public finances and the financial sector require close monitoring and urgent economic policy attention in order to avert any adverse effects on the functioning of the economy and of economic and monetary union.

Download or read book EU Law of Economic Monetary Union written by Fabian Amtenbrink and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-21 with total page 1808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting a sweeping analysis of the legal foundations, institutions, and substantive legal issues in EU monetary integration, The EU Law of Economic and Monetary Union serves as an authoritative reference on the legal framework of European economic and monetary union. The book opens by setting out the broader contexts for the European project - historical, economic, political, and regarding the international framework. It goes on to examine the constitutional architecture of EMU; the main institutions and their legal powers; the core legal provisions of monetary and economic union; and the relationship of EMU with EU financial market and banking regulation. The concluding section analyses the current EMU crisis and the main avenues of future reform.

Download or read book Economic and Monetary Union written by Michele Chang and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible introductory text provides a comprehensive and accessible account of the evolution of the Eurozone, from its beginnings in fixed exchange rate systems through to the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis. It examines why the EMU was created, what went wrong to bring about the global financial crisis, and why countries were affected so differently. It assesses the impact of monetary union both in Europe and beyond and evaluates the prospects for the Euro as an international currency. Recognising that political union has long been seen as part of monetary integration, and that Eurozone membership often impacts domestic policy, Chang widens the scope of her evaluation to include consider effects and developments that are not purely economic in scope. Using theories drawn from economics and political science, this book provides students with an up-to-date analysis of the recent reforms undertaken, grounded in a long-term perspective of the trajectory of European integration. As well as suiting upper-level undergraduate and Master's courses on European Monetary Union, this text is beneficial for students of Politics, International Relations and European Studies on more general courses to foster an understanding of the impact of the EMU on the wider functioning of the EU. The text is filled with figures, maps, timelines and other pedagogical features to ensure this topic accessible to students of all levels.

Download or read book The new European Budgetary Order written by Robin Degron and published by Bruylant. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sovereign debt crisis pushed the EU to take a new step to the common financial rules. After some years of ‘soft budgetary carefreeness’, the European Budgetary Treaty boosted the movement of budgetary convergence in the EU. The ‘Six Pack’ and the ‘Two Pack’ consolidated the effectiveness of a new European budgetary order founded by the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. Even if mechanisms adopted by the Member States are formally different in law, conditions of European budgetary orthodoxy have been definitively hardened. This new rigor has a great impact on all the public administrations, as defined by the European Accounts System and Eurostat. The EU is a key-player of the budgetary game. This great power makes the EU accountable to the general economic situation within Europe and amongst all Member States. Budgetary regulation must be conciliated with preservation of some investment means to develop potential growth on the continent. ‘Giant in law’, the EU has to be responsible from an economic point of view. The problem is that, from a budgetary standpoint, the EU remains a ‘dwarf’. The European general budget is about 1% of the EU gross national income. The budgetary power of the EU is less than one twentieth of the USA federal financial power. Balance between ‘budgetary dwarf ’ and ‘giant in law’ is characteristic of ‘adolescence’ of the EU finances. Natural consequence of this situation, the EU capacities for redistributing and stabilization are still relatively limited. To overtake this powerlessness, the EU has used no budgetary tools by appealing to the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund. However, the ability of the EU to support public investment is not sufficient today to promote an authentic economic relaunching policy and to support the global competition, especially with the USA and China. With a ‘powerful brake’ and a ‘poor accelerator’, the risk is the European public investments continue to stand by. This is the investment paradox of the European budgetary order. Will the next negotiation on the multiyear financial framework post 2020 be able to change the point ? It is not sure, especially in the Brexit context. Negotiating an European financial agenda is always long and difficult. But, the exit of the United Kingdom could makes the game more disputed than ever. A thing is clear : beyond the technical and financial sizes of the new roadmap proposals established by the Commission, the democratic control of the European Parliament is still limited. The EU budgetary framework and timetable are too inert, not enough reactive, far from European citizens actually. In the historical moments we live, it is certainly a strategic mistake to not involve much more citizens and their representatives in the crucial negotiation on the long-term finances of the EU. This is the technocratic risk of the new European budgetary order.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances Sweden written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On 14 February 2012, the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), prepared in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. The AMR serves as an initial screening device, helping to identify Member States that warrant further in-depth analysis to determine whether imbalances exist or risk emerging. According to Article 5 of Regulation No. 1176/2011, these country-specific ?in-depth reviews? should examine the nature, origin and severity of macroeconomic developments in the Member State concerned, which constitute, or could lead to, imbalances. On the basis of this analysis, the Commission will establish whether it considers that an imbalance exists and what type of policy follow-up it will recommend to the Council. For Sweden, the AMR suggested the need to look more closely at whether Sweden is exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances of an internal and external nature. On the external side, the AMR highlighted a long series of strong current account surpluses which, however, coincided with a loss in market shares over the last years. On the internal side, the high level of private debt was identified as a matter of concern, mainly due to increasing household indebtedness in the context of strong increases of house prices over the last decade. Against this background, Section 2 of this review looks more in detail into these developments covering both the external and internal dimensions, followed by specific focus sections on the housing market and private sector debt developments in Section 3. Section 4 summarises the findings and presents possible policy considerations.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Imbalances Belgium written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On 14 February 2012, the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) in accordance with the Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. The AMR serves as an initial screening device to identify Member States that warrant further in depth analysis into whether imbalances exist or risk emerging. According to Article 5 of Regulation No. 1176/2011, these country-specific ?in-depth reviews? should examine the nature, origin and severity of macroeconomic developments in the Member State concerned, which constitute, or could lead to, imbalances. On the basis of this analysis, the Commission concludes whether it considers that an imbalance exists or not, and if so whether it is excessive or not, and what type of follow-up it will recommend to the Council to address to the Member State. This in-depth review concludes that Belgium is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be addressed. In particular, macroeconomic developments in the areas of external competitiveness of goods and indebtedness, especially concerning the high level of public debt, deserve further attention so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects on the functioning of the economy.