Download or read book Scenario Analysis in Risk Management written by Bertrand K. Hassani and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-26 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on identifying and explaining the key determinants of scenario analysis in the context of operational risk, stress testing and systemic risk, as well as management and planning. Each chapter presents alternative solutions to perform reliable scenario analysis. The author also provides technical notes and describes applications and key characteristics for each of the solutions. In addition, the book includes a section to help practitioners interpret the results and adjust them to real-life management activities. Methodologies, including those derived from consensus strategies, extreme value theory, Bayesian networks, Neural networks, Fault Trees, frequentist statistics and data mining are introduced in such a way as to make them understandable to readers without a quantitative background. Particular emphasis is given to the added value of the implementation of these methodologies.

Download or read book Models of Scenario Building and Planning written by A. Martelli and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2016-08-27 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. The book focuses on the analysis of the competitors' behavior; the analysis of risk and uncertainty; and the link between scenarios and strategies.

Download or read book Embedded Case Study Methods written by Roland W. Scholz and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2002 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an embedded case study, the starting and end point is the comprehension of the case as a whole in its real-world context. This book bridges the gap between quantitative and qualitative approaches to complex problems when using this methodology.

Download or read book Scenario Thinking written by George Cairns and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-13 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

Download or read book Scenario Planning written by Woody Wade and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-27 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?

Download or read book Essential First Steps to Data Analysis written by Carol S. Parke and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2012-12-13 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carol S. Parke's Essential First Steps to Data Analysis: Scenario-Based Examples Using SPSS provides instruction and guidance on preparing quantitative data sets prior to answering a study's research questions. Such preparation may involve data management and manipulation tasks, data organization, structural changes to the data files, or conducting preliminary analysis. Twelve research-based scenarios are used to present the content. Each scenario tells the "story" of a researcher who thoroughly examined their data and the decisions they made along the way. The scenario begins with a description of the researcher's study and his/her data file(s), then describes the issues the researcher must address, explains why they are important, shows how SPSS was used to address the issues and prepare data, and shares the researcher's reflections and any additional decision-making. Finally, each scenario ends with the researcher's written summary of the procedures and outcomes from the initial data preparation or analysis.

Download or read book Risk Management and Financial Institutions written by John C. Hull and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-03-05 with total page 743 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most complete, up to date guide to risk management in finance Risk Management and Financial Institutions explains all aspects of financial risk and financial institution regulation, helping readers better understand the financial markets and potential dangers. This new fourth edition has been updated to reflect the major developments in the industry, including the finalization of Basel III, the fundamental review of the trading book, SEFs, CCPs, and the new rules affecting derivatives markets. There are new chapters on enterprise risk management and scenario analysis. Readers learn the different types of risk, how and where they appear in different types of institutions, and how the regulatory structure of each institution affects risk management practices. Comprehensive ancillary materials include software, practice questions, and all necessary teaching supplements, facilitating more complete understanding and providing an ultimate learning resource. All financial professionals need a thorough background in risk and the interlacing connections between financial institutions to better understand the market, defend against systemic dangers, and perform their jobs. This book provides a complete picture of the risk management industry and practice, with the most up to date information. Understand how risk affects different types of financial institutions Learn the different types of risk and how they are managed Study the most current regulatory issues that deal with risk Risk management is paramount with the dangers inherent in the financial system, and a deep understanding is essential for anyone working in the finance industry; today, risk management is part of everyone's job. For complete information and comprehensive coverage of the latest industry issues and practices, Risk Management and Financial Institutions is an informative, authoritative guide.

Download or read book Scenarios written by Wack and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations written by Jeffrey E. Kottemann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-06 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Features an integrated approach of statistical scenarios and simulations to aid readers in developing key intuitions needed to understand the wide ranging concepts and methods of statistics and inference Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations presents the basic concepts of statistics and statistical inference using the dual mechanisms of scenarios and simulations. This approach helps readers develop key intuitions and deep understandings of statistical analysis. Scenario-specific sampling simulations depict the results that would be obtained by a very large number of individuals investigating the same scenario, each with their own evidence, while graphical depictions of the simulation results present clear and direct pathways to intuitive methods for statistical inference. These intuitive methods can then be easily linked to traditional formulaic methods, and the author does not simply explain the linkages, but rather provides demonstrations throughout for a broad range of statistical phenomena. In addition, induction and deduction are repeatedly interwoven, which fosters a natural "need to know basis" for ordering the topic coverage. Examining computer simulation results is central to the discussion and provides an illustrative way to (re)discover the properties of sample statistics, the role of chance, and to (re)invent corresponding principles of statistical inference. In addition, the simulation results foreshadow the various mathematical formulas that underlie statistical analysis. In addition, this book: • Features both an intuitive and analytical perspective and includes a broad introduction to the use of Monte Carlo simulation and formulaic methods for statistical analysis • Presents straight-forward coverage of the essentials of basic statistics and ensures proper understanding of key concepts such as sampling distributions, the effects of sample size and variance on uncertainty, analysis of proportion, mean and rank differences, covariance, correlation, and regression • Introduces advanced topics such as Bayesian statistics, data mining, model cross-validation, robust regression, and resampling • Contains numerous example problems in each chapter with detailed solutions as well as an appendix that serves as a manual for constructing simulations quickly and easily using Microsoft® Office Excel® Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations is an ideal textbook for courses, seminars, and workshops in statistics and statistical inference and is appropriate for self-study as well. The book also serves as a thought-provoking treatise for researchers, scientists, managers, technicians, and others with a keen interest in statistical analysis. Jeffrey E. Kottemann, Ph.D., is Professor in the Perdue School at Salisbury University. Dr. Kottemann has published articles in a wide variety of academic research journals in the fields of business administration, computer science, decision sciences, economics, engineering, information systems, psychology, and public administration. He received his Ph.D. in Systems and Quantitative Methods from the University of Arizona.

Download or read book Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis written by Hannah Kosow and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Introduction to the Scenario Approach written by Marco C. Campi and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2018-11-15 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making decisions driven by experience. In this context, a scenario is an observation that comes from the environment, and scenario optimization refers to optimizing decisions over a set of available scenarios. Scenario optimization can be applied across a variety of fields, including machine learning, quantitative finance, control, and identification. This concise, practical book provides readers with an easy access point to make the scenario approach understandable to nonexperts, and offers an overview of various decision frameworks in which the method can be used. It contains numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including systems theory, control, biomedical engineering, economics, and finance. Practitioners can find "easy-to-use recipes," while theoreticians will benefit from a rigorous treatment of the theoretical foundations of the method, making it an excellent starting point for scientists interested in doing research in this field. Introduction to the Scenario Approach will appeal to scientists working in optimization, practitioners working in myriad fields involving decision-making, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.

Download or read book Scenario Analysis with the DD PD Mapping Approach Stock Market Shocks and U S Corporate Default Risk written by Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-20 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis.

Download or read book Strategic Market Management written by David A. Aaker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Suitable for all business students studying strategy and marketing courses in the UK and in Europe, this text also looks at important issues such as the financial aspects of marketing.

Download or read book TSO DSO Interactions and Ancillary Services in Electricity Transmission and Distribution Networks written by Gianluigi Migliavacca and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-25 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents new and practical solutions to solve the coordination problem faced due to the increasing integration of renewable energy sources into existing electricity transmission networks it addresses how the subsequent technological revolution is not only affecting the structure of the electricity markets, but also the interactions between transmission system operators (TSO) and distribution system operators (DSO). A must-have for smart grid analysis, this book presents models and scenario buildups of complex systems and incorporates the experience of three technological pilots that are analyzing special issues connected to network monitoring and control, and participation to a would-be ancillary services market from special subjects. The reader will benefit from the experience drawn from SmartNet, a major research project encompassing 22 partners from nine EU countries and including input gathered from a significant number of industrial partners.

Download or read book Scenario based Strategic Planning written by Burkhard Schwenker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.

Download or read book Slaying Excel Dragons written by MrExcel's Holy Macro! Books and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2024-09-26 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to mastering Excel with shortcuts, data analysis, and advanced formulas. Perfect for all skill levels. Key Features Comprehensive coverage of Excel features and functions Practical examples and step-by-step instructions Focus on efficiency with keyboard shortcuts and advanced techniques Book DescriptionThis comprehensive guide is designed to elevate your Excel skills from beginner to advanced. Starting with the fundamentals, you'll learn how to navigate Excel's interface, use essential keyboard shortcuts, and manage data efficiently. As you progress, you'll dive into complex features like PivotTables, dynamic ranges, and advanced formatting, gaining the ability to handle intricate data tasks with ease. The guide also covers powerful formulas and functions, including VLOOKUP, INDEX/MATCH, and logical tests. These tools will empower you to automate calculations, perform detailed analyses, and streamline your workflow. Additionally, you'll explore Excel’s data analysis features, such as sorting, filtering, and creating dynamic charts, enabling you to present your data clearly and effectively. By the end of this book, you'll have a deep understanding of Excel's capabilities, equipped with the skills to tackle any spreadsheet challenge. Whether you're preparing for advanced data analysis or seeking to optimize your day-to-day tasks, this guide provides the knowledge and practical experience to make Excel work for you.What you will learn Master Excel's keyboard shortcuts Apply advanced formulas and functions Create and customize PivotTables Utilize data analysis features Format cells with conditional logic Create and edit complex charts Who this book is for This book is perfect for Excel users of all levels who want to improve their efficiency and data analysis skills. A basic understanding of Excel is recommended, but the book starts with foundational topics and builds to advanced features, making it accessible to beginners and valuable to advanced users alike.

Download or read book Transformative Scenario Planning written by Adam Kahane and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.