Download or read book Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing written by Mr.Daniel C. Hardy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rules of thumb can be useful in undertaking quick, robust, and readily interpretable bank stress tests. Such rules of thumb are proposed for the behavior of banks’ capital ratios and key drivers thereof—primarily credit losses, income, credit growth, and risk weights—in advanced and emerging economies, under more or less severe stress conditions. The proposed rules imply disproportionate responses to large shocks, and can be used to quantify the cyclical behaviour of capital ratios under various regulatory approaches.

Download or read book A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-13 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has placed the spotlight squarely on bank stress tests. Stress tests conducted in the lead-up to the crisis, including those by IMF staff, were not always able to identify the right risks and vulnerabilities. Since then, IMF staff has developed more robust stress testing methods and models and adopted a more coherent and consistent approach. This paper articulates the solvency stress testing framework that is being applied in the IMF’s surveillance of member countries’ banking systems, and discusses examples of its actual implementation in FSAPs to 18 countries which are in the group comprising the 25 most systemically important financial systems (“S-25”) plus other G-20 countries. In doing so, the paper also offers useful guidance for readers seeking to develop their own stress testing frameworks and country authorities preparing for FSAPs. A detailed Stress Test Matrix (STeM) comparing the stress test parameters applie in each of these major country FSAPs is provided, together with our stress test output templates.

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Download or read book Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.

Download or read book Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests written by Mr. Dimitri G. Demekas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.

Download or read book Macrofinancial Stress Testing Principles and Practices Background Material written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-29 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff conducted a survey of stress testing practices among selected national central banks and supervisory authorities. The online survey was undertaken in November 2011 as part of the preparatory work for the paper on ?Macrofinancial Stress Testing: Principles and Practices. The survey focused on stress testing for banks, which is more widespread and better established—and practices are therefore easier to compare across countries—but also included questions on stress testing for nonbank financial institutions.

Download or read book Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing written by Mr.Christian Schmieder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.

Download or read book Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.

Download or read book Bank Solvency and Funding Cost written by Mr.Stefan W. Schmitz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-15 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents new evidence on the empirical relationship between bank solvency and funding costs. Building on a newly constructed dataset drawing on supervisory data for 54 large banks from six advanced countries over 2004–2013, we use a simultaneous equation approach to estimate the contemporaneous interaction between solvency and liquidity. Our results show that liquidity and solvency interactions can be more material than suggested by the existing empirical literature. A 100 bps increase in regulatory capital ratios is associated with a decrease of bank funding costs of about 105 bps. A 100 bps increase in funding costs reduces regulatory capital buffers by 32 bps. We also find evidence of non-linear effects between solvency and funding costs. Understanding the impact of solvency on funding costs is particularly relevant for stress testing. Our analysis suggests that neglecting the dynamic features of the solvency-liquidity nexus in the 2014 EU-wide stress test could have led to a significant underestimation of the impact of stress on bank capital ratios.

Download or read book Banking s Final Exam written by Morris Goldstein and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spurred by the success of the first stress test of US banks toward the end of the global economic crisis in 2009, stress testing of large financial institutions has become the cornerstone of banking supervision worldwide. The aim of the tests is to determine which banks are adequately capitalized under severe economic shocks and to order corrective measures for those that are vulnerable. In Banking’s Final Exam, one of the world’s leading experts on banking regulation concludes that the tests administered on both sides of the Atlantic suffer from fundamental weaknesses, leading to a false sense of reassurance about the safety and soundness of the banking system. Some weaknesses can be corrected within the existing bank-capital regime, but others will require bold reforms—including higher minimum capital requirements for the largest and most systemically-important banks. The banking industry is likely to resist these reforms, but this book explains why their objections do not hold water.

Download or read book Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top Down Stress Testing Perspective written by Mr.Marco Gross and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests.

Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

Download or read book Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools written by Lucyna Gornicka and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-14 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks' loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk in Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains the treatment of sovereign risk in macroprudential solvency stress testing, based on the experiences in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). We discuss four essential steps in assessing the system-wide impact of sovereign risk: scope, loss estimation, shock calibration, and capital impact calculation. Most importantly, a market-consistent valuation approach lies at the heart of assessing the resilience of the financial sector in a tail risk scenario with sovereign distress. We present a flexible, closed-form approach to calibrating haircuts based on changes in expected sovereign defaults affecting bank solvency during adverse macroeconomic conditions. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of using extreme value theory (EVT) in this context, with empirical examples from past FSAPs.

Download or read book Financial Soundness Indicators written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04-04 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.

Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.