Download or read book Robust Simulation for Mega Risks written by Craig E. Taylor and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-11 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.
Download or read book Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation written by Prince Boateng and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2017-04-28 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.
Download or read book Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation written by Prince Boateng and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2017-04-28 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.
Download or read book Directions in Modeling Wheat and Maize for Developing Countries written by Jeffrey W. White and published by CIMMYT. This book was released on 1998 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines crop improvement, strategic agronomy, and natural resource management research concerns central to CIMMYT¦s mission and which models can help address. Authors also discuss related issues, including model documentation and data management. Although CIMMYT has little comparative advantage in model development per se, the center has much to contribute to others' development and refinement efforts, to the availability of quality data, and to the promotion of models and training in their use, and active participation in these areas will ultimately result in better models for CIMMYT's own aims.
Download or read book When Mega Goes GIGA written by Joseph Brewer and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mega Quakes Cascading Earthquake Hazards and Compounding Risks written by Katsuichiro Goda and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2018-03-15 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large-scale earthquake hazards pose major threats to modern society, generating casualties, disrupting socioeconomic activities, and causing enormous economic loss across the world. Events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, highlighted the vulnerability of urban cities to catastrophic earthquakes. Accurate assessment of earthquake-related hazards (both primary and secondary) is essential to mitigate and control disaster risk exposure effectively. To date, various approaches and tools have been developed in different disciplines. However, they are fragmented over a number of research disciplines and underlying assumptions are often inconsistent. Our society and infrastructure are subjected to multiple types of cascading earthquake hazards; therefore, integrated hazard assessment and risk management strategy is needed for mitigating potential consequences due to multi-hazards. Moreover, uncertainty modeling and its impact on hazard prediction and anticipated consequences are essential parts of probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment. The Research Topic is focused upon modeling and impact assessment of cascading earthquake hazards, including mainshock ground shaking, aftershock, tsunami, liquefaction, and landslide.
Download or read book Resilience Robustness and Vulnerability of Transport Systems written by Milan Janić and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-21 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is focused on the analysis and modelling of resilience, robustness, and vulnerability of transport systems and their complement: reliability. It provides an elaboration on their generic concepts, analysing disruptive events and nature of their impacts. It also offers an analysis and modelling of the system performances and their indicators relevant for the main actors involved. Applications of the models of performances and their resilience, robustness, and vulnerability to the selected cases of road, rail, air, and maritime transport mode affected by different internal and external disruptive events are also presented. By offering readers a systematic and comprehensive way of dealing with the topic of resilience, robustness, and vulnerability of transport systems and their complement, reliability, this book will be of interest to researchers and professionals alike within the transport industry.
Download or read book Simulation and Optimization in Finance written by Dessislava A. Pachamanova and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and practice of financial simulation and optimization In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the use of simulation and optimization methods in the financial industry. Applications include portfolio allocation, risk management, pricing, and capital budgeting under uncertainty. This accessible guide provides an introduction to the simulation and optimization techniques most widely used in finance, while at the same time offering background on the financial concepts in these applications. In addition, it clarifies difficult concepts in traditional models of uncertainty in finance, and teaches you how to build models with software. It does this by reviewing current simulation and optimization methodology-along with available software-and proceeds with portfolio risk management, modeling of random processes, pricing of financial derivatives, and real options applications. Contains a unique combination of finance theory and rigorous mathematical modeling emphasizing a hands-on approach through implementation with software Highlights not only classical applications, but also more recent developments, such as pricing of mortgage-backed securities Includes models and code in both spreadsheet-based software (@RISK, Solver, Evolver, VBA) and mathematical modeling software (MATLAB) Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Simulation and Optimization Modeling in Finance offers essential guidance on some of the most important topics in financial management.
Download or read book Prediction and Simulation Methods for Geohazard Mitigation written by Fusao Oka and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-05-07 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last decades have shown a remarkable increase in the number of heavy rains, typhoons and earthquakes. These natural phenomena are the main causes for geohazards. As a result the mitigation of geohazards has become a major research topic in geotechnical engineering, and in recent years simulation-based predictions and monitoring tools have been
Download or read book MEGA CRISES written by Ira Helsloot and published by Charles C Thomas Publisher. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live in turbulent times with continents and nations facing ever-heightening risks such as natural disasters, intense and protracted conflicts, terrorism, corporate crises, cyber threats to infrastructures and mega-events. We are witnessing the rise of mega-crises and a new class of adversity with many unknowns. The prospect of mega-crises presents professionals and students in the field of crisis management with four major tasks. First, they should engage in “deep thinking” about the causes of the increasing occurrence of mega-crises. Second, they should identify and work through the dominant trends which complicate contemporary crisis management. Third, they should upgrade institutional crisis management capacity. Fourth, they should improve societal resilience since no institutional complex can mitigate or manage these mega-crisis on its own. This book is divided into four primary parts, each of which looks at one facet of mega-crises. Part I focuses on the concept of a mega-crisis and mega-crisis management; Part II examines crisis management of mega-natural disasters; Part III evaluates crisis management of man-made mega-crises; and Part IV identifies mega-threats and vulnerabilities. Additional major topics include Hurricane Katrina; Hurricane Gustav; the London Bombings; the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks of July 7, 2005; corporate meltdowns; the subprime crisis; the Olympic Games; electricity grids; global climate change; the Dutch Delta; risks to food security; and mega-crises and the Internet. This comprehensive text will provide practitioners and academics with the results of an across-the-board research effort in the prospects, nature, characteristics, and the effects of mega-crises.
Download or read book Fundamental Theories of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management written by Zhaohan Sheng and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-20 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fundamental Theories of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management: Theoretical Considerations from Chinese Practices is a collection of decades of research and applications of managing megaprojects using theories of complex systems and management sciences. It presents basic (classical) theory of megaproject management and is a showcase of more than 30 years of research of complex system and management sciences on the theory of megaproject management resulting from the integrating of theory and practice of megaprojects. The theory and models have undergone rigorous systematic testing during the management and implementation of megaprojects in China. Megaprojects are huge undertakings, often in infrastructure (bridges, tunnels, airports, etc.) that involve huge levels of investment, often take years to complete, and typically run into delays, cost overruns, and any number of unforeseen problems. Over the last few decades, no one country has undertaken more of these projects than China, and this book presents the fundamental theories underlying the practice of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management as practiced in China. Individual chapters provide a basic definition of Mega Infrastructure Construction and it’s management; an overview of the theories behind it; the Formation Path; basic concepts; fundamental principles; scientific problems; the Method System of Meta-synthesis; specialized methods in research; and intelligent management of Mega Infrastructure Construction. Although the theoretical construction management problems in this book are derived from construction practices in China, they can be applied universally and extended for great fundamental significance.
Download or read book North American Tunneling 2014 Proceedings written by Davidson, Gregg and published by Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration. This book was released on 2014-06-17 with total page 1214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The North American Tunneling Conference is the premier forum to discuss new trends and developments in underground construction in North America. With every conference, the number of attendees and breadth of topics grows. North American Tunneling: 2014 Proceedings reflects the theme for the 2014 conference, “Mission Possible.” The authors share new theories, novel innovations, and the latest tools that make what once may have been perceived as impossible, now possible. The authors of 128 papers share the latest case histories, expertise, lessons learned, and real-world applications from around the globe on a wide range of topics. They cover the successes and failures of challenging construction projects. Read about challenging design issues, fresh approaches on performance, future projects, and industry trends as well as ground movement and support, structure analysis, risk and cost management, rock tunnels, caverns and shafts, TBM technology and selection, and water and wastewater conveyance.
Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Download or read book Estimating the Impacts of Urban Growth on Future Flood Risk written by Willem Veerbeek and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future growth projections are limited. This comparative study provides insight in the long term development of future riverine and pluvial flood risk for 18 fast growing megacities. The outcomes provide not only a baseline absent in current practise, but also a strategic outlook that might better establish the role of urban planning in limiting future flood risk.
Download or read book Simulation Gaming Applications for Sustainable Cities and Smart Infrastructures written by Heide Karen Lukosch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-25 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the 48th International Simulation and Gaming Association Conference, ISAGA 2018, held in Delft, The Netherlands, in July 2018. The 19 revised full papers included in the volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 27 submissions. The contributions to this book range from design thinking related to simulation gaming, the analysis of the consequences of design choices in games, to games for decision making, examples of games for business, climate change, maritime spatial planning, sustainable city development, supply chain, and much more.
Download or read book Caribbean Tsunami Hazard written by Aurelio Mercado-Irizarry and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2006 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to present the overall existing tsunami hazard in the Caribbean Sea region, a region which is typically only associated with hurricanes. It initially presents an overview of all of the existing tsunami-causing factors found in the region: earthquakes, sub-aerial and submarine landslides, and submarine explosions. This is followed by field evidence of recent and pre-historic tsunami events, which gives credibility to all of this effort. The next section is a description of the tsunami hazard mitigation efforts being carried out locally and in collaboration with national and international programs. The final part is dedicated to the presentation of related recent research results. Contents: Need for a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System; Overview of Potential Tsunami Sources in the Caribbean Sea Region; The Tsunami Evidence in the Caribbean: Paleotsunami Studies; Recent Caribbean Programs and Studies; Tsunami Physics and Modeling Efforts. Readership: Geologists, seismologists, oceanographers, coastal engineers, emergency response personnel, volcanologists, civil engineers, upper level undergraduates, graduate students, researchers and academic/lecturers.
Download or read book Recent Advances in Time Series Forecasting written by Dinesh C.S. Bisht and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-08 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Future predictions are always a topic of interest. Precise estimates are crucial in many activities as forecasting errors can lead to big financial loss. The sequential analysis of data and information gathered from past to present is call time series analysis. This book covers the recent advancements in time series forecasting. The book includes theoretical as well as recent applications of time series analysis. It focuses on the recent techniques used, discusses a combination of methodology and applications, presents traditional and advanced tools, new applications, and identifies the gaps in knowledge in engineering applications. This book is aimed at scientists, researchers, postgraduate students and engineers in the areas of supply chain management, production, inventory planning, and statistical quality control.
