Download or read book Robust Inference in Time varying Structural VAR Models written by Benny Hartwig and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Robust Inference Intime varying Structural VAR Models written by Benny Hartwig and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed whenthe ratio of volatilities is time-varying. Simulations demonstrate that estimated co-variance matrices become more divergent when volatility clusters idiosyncratically.It is illustrated that this property is important for empirical applications. Specifically, alternative estimates on the evolution of U.S. systematic monetary policy andinflation-gap persistence indicate that conclusions may critically hinge on a selectedordering of variables. The dynamic correlation Cholesky multivariate stochasticvolatility model is proposed as a robust alternative.

Download or read book A Class of Time Varying Parameter Structural VARs for Inference Under Exact Or Set Identification written by Mark Bognanni and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with time-varying parameters, which I call a drifting SVAR (DSVAR). The DSVAR is the first structural time-varying parameter model to allow for internally consistent probabilistic inference under exact--or set--identification, nesting the widely used SVAR framework as a special case. I prove that the DSVAR implies a reduced-form representation, from which structural inference can proceed similarly to the widely used two-step approach for SVARs: beginning with estimation of a reduced form and then choosing among observationally equivalent candidate structural parameters via the imposition of identifying restrictions. In a special case, the implied reduced form is a tractable known model for which I provide the first algorithm for Bayesian estimation of all free parameters. I demonstrate the framework in the context of Baumeister and Peersman's (2013b) work on time variation in the elasticity of oil demand.

Download or read book Inference of Grouped Time varying Network Vector Autoregression Models written by Degui Li and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Instrumental Variable Estimation of Structural VAR Models Robust to Possible Non Stationarity written by Xu Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the estimation of dynamic causal effects using external instruments and a structural vector-autoregressive model with possibly non-stationary regressors. We provide general conditions under which the asymptotic normal approximation remains valid. In this case, the asymptotic variance depends on the persistence property of each series. We further provide a consistent asymptotic covariance matrix estimator that requires neither such knowledge nor pre-tests for nonstationarity. The proposed consistent covariance matrix estimator is robust and is easy to implement in practice.

Download or read book Robust Inference with Quantile Regression in Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Value at Risk Calculation written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Volatility (SV) models play an integral role in modeling time varying volatility, with widespread application in finance. Due to the absence of a closed form likelihood function, estimation is a challenging problem. In the presence of outliers, and the high kurtosis prevalent in financial data, robust estimation techniques are desirable. Also, in the context of risk assessment when the underlying model is SV, computing the one step ahead predictive return densities for Value at Risk (VaR) calculation entails a numerically indirect procedure. The Quantile Regression (QR) estimation is an increasingly important tool for analysis, which helps in fitting parsimonious models in lieu of full conditional distributions. We propose two methods (i) Regression Quantile Method of Moments (RQMM) and (ii) Regression Quantile - Kalman Filtering method (RQ-KF) based on the QR approach that can be used to obtain robust SV model parameter estimates as well as VaR estimates. The RQMM is a simulation based indirect inference procedure where auxiliary recursive quantile models are used, with gradients of the RQ objective function providing the moment conditions. This was motivated by the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) approach used in SV model estimation and the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) method. An optimal linear quantile model based on the underlying SV assumption is derived. This is used along with other CAViaR specifications for the auxiliary models. The RQ-KF is a computationally simplified procedure combining the QML and QR methodologies. Based on a recursive model under the SV framework, quantile estimates are produced by the Kalman filtering scheme and are further refined using the RQ objective function, yielding robust estimates. For illustration purposes, comparison of the RQMM method with EMM under different data scenarios show that RQMM is stable under model misspecification, presence of outliers and heavy-tailedness. Comparison of the RQ.

Download or read book Robust Inference in Structural Vars with Long Run Restrictions written by Guillaume Chevillon and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long-run restrictions are a very popular method for identifying structural vector autoregressions, but they suffer from weak identification when the data is very persistent, i.e., when the highest autoregressive roots are near unity. Near unit roots introduce additional nuisance parameters and make standard weak-instrument-robust methods of inference inapplicable. We develop a method of inference that is robust to both weak identification and strong persistence. The method is based on a combination of the Anderson-Rubin test with instruments derived by filtering potentially non-stationary variables to make them near stationary. We apply our method to obtain robust confidence bands on impulse responses in two leading applications in the literature.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.

Download or read book Robust Inference for Non Gaussian SVAR Models written by Lukas Hoesch and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non-Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct coverage for structural functions of the model parameters when deviations from Gaussianity are small. To this extent, we propose a robust semi-parametric approach to conduct hypothesis tests and construct confidence sets for structural functions in SVAR models. The methodology fully exploits non-Gaussianity when it is present, but yields correct size / coverage regardless of the distance to the Gaussian distribution. Empirically we revisit two macroeconomic SVAR studies where we document mixed results. For the oil price model of Kilian and Murphy (2012) we find that non-Gaussianity can robustly identify reasonable confidence sets, whereas for the labour supply-demand model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) this is not the case. Moreover, these exercises highlight the importance of using weak identification robust methods to assess estimation uncertainty when using non-Gaussianity for identification.

Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.

Download or read book Bayesian Econometric Methods written by Joshua Chan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-15 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book On Time varying VAR Models written by Yayi Yan and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Classical Time Varying FAVAR Models Estimation Forecasting and Structural Analysis written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.