Download or read book Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility written by Casey B. Mulligan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The stochastic discount factor seems volatile, but is this observation of any consequence for aggregate analysis of consumption, capital accumulation, output, etc.? I amend the standard frictionless model of aggregate consumption and capital accumulation with time-varying subjective probability adjustments, and obtain four implications for aggregate economic analysis. First, subjective probability adjustments add volatility to the stochastic discount factor, and can rationalize any pattern of asset prices satisfying no-arbitrage, even while capital accumulation is efficient. Second, despite its flexibility in pricing assets, the model implies that, in expected value, the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation is equal to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, and there is a simple, stable, and familiar relation between consumption growth and capital's return. Third, the expected returns on assets in small net aggregate supply are weakly (and sometimes negatively) correlated with capital's expected return, and are thereby poor predictors of aggregate consumption growth. Fourth, when it comes to assets in small net aggregate supply, capital gains reflect time varying risk premia, and returns can predict aggregate consumption growth better when the capital gain component of those returns is ignored. All four implications are consistent with empirical results reported here, and in the previous literature documenting stochastic discount factor volatility. Several recent theories of stochastic discount factor volatility can, from the aggregate point of view, be interpreted as special cases of subjective probability adjusted CCAPM.
Download or read book Volatility the macroeconomy and asset prices written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news. This evidence has important implications for the return on aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an economically plausible positive correlation between the return to human capital and equity, while this correlation is implausibly negative when volatility risk is ignored. Our model setup implies a dynamics capital asset pricing model (DCAPM) which underscores the importance of volatility risk in addition to cash-flow and discount-rate risks. We show that our DCAPM accounts for the level and dispersion of risk premia across book-to-market and size sorted portfolios, and that equity portfolios carry positive volatility-risk premia.
Download or read book Volatility Bounds for Stochastic Discount Factors written by Giorgio De Santis and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stochastic Volatility Long Run Risks and Aggregate Stock Market Fluctuations written by Stefan Avdjiev and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992 written by Olivier Blanchard and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the seventh in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics. Contents What Shall We Do Today? Goals and Signposts in the Operation of Monetary Policy, Ben S. Bernanke and Frederic S. Mishkin - A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore, Alwyn Young - International Trade and the Wage Structure, Steven J. Davis - Imperfect Information and Macroeconomic Analysis, Joseph E. Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald - Asset Pricing Lessons for Macroeconomics, Lars P. Hansen and John H. Cochrane - Postmortem on the Debt Crisis, Daniel Cohen
Download or read book A Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility Upper Bound in a Mean Variance Skewness World written by Valerio Potì and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs a stochastic discount factor (SDF) volatility upper bound to limit the attainable maximal Sharpe ratio and thus, together with a no arbitrage condition, to rule out quot;good deals.quot; While no-arbitrage and the SDF volatility bound imply relatively weak assumptions about investors' preferences and do not require the specification of a full-blown asset pricing theory, they do provide useful restrictions on factor model estimates. This is shown by imposing these restrictions in the estimation of various multifactor models that allow for a non-zero price of coskewness risk. Empirically, while coskewness explains cross-sectional variation in average excess returns not explained by the Fama and French (1996) factors, its price is of a much more modest magnitude than in unrestricted estimates.
Download or read book Projections of the Stochastic Discount Factor and Optimal Volatility Derivates written by Artem Dyachenko and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Desirability of Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union written by V. V. Chari and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The desirability of fiscal constraints in monetary unions depends critically on whether the monetary authority can commit to follow its policies. If it can commit, then debt constraints can only impose costs. If it cannot commit, then fiscal policy has a free-rider problem, and debt constraints may be desirable. This type of free-rider problem is new and arises only because of a time inconsistency problem"--NBER website
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book The Great Depression and the Friedman Schwartz Hypothesis written by Lawrence J. Christiano and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight shocks, the story it tells about the Great Depression turns out to be a simple and familiar one. The contraction phase was primarily a consequence of a shock that induced a shift away from privately intermediated liabilities, such as demand deposits and liabilities that resemble equity, and towards currency. The slowness of the recovery from the Depression was due to a shock that increased the market power of workers. We identify a monetary base rule which responds only to the money demand shocks in the model. We solve the model with this counterfactual monetary policy rule. We then simulate the dynamic response of this model to all the estimated shocks. Based on the model analysis, we conclude that if the counterfactual policy rule had been in place in the 1930s, the Great Depression would have been relatively mild.
Download or read book Financial Development and the Instability of Open Economies written by Philippe Aghion and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development. A basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies. This is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles. Thus, countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run. Similarly, full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development: phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows. On the other hand, foreign direct investment does not destabilize"--NBER website
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Download or read book The American Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2004-03 with total page 998 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fooling Ourselves written by Juan Carlos Hallak and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper evaluates how much of the economics profession has evaluated the evidence on the relationship between international trade and economic growth. The paper highlights the basic approaches to the trade and growth question that the literature has adopted. The case is made that more attention needs to be paid to the mechanisms by which trade impacts growth and that future research should move away from a focus on outcomes and look instead at these mechanisms"--NBER website
Download or read book The Response of Hours to a Technology Stock written by Lawrence J. Christiano and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate what happens to hours worked after a positive shock to technology, using the aggregate technology series computed in Basu, Fernald and Kimball (1999). We conclude that hours worked rise after such a shock.
