Download or read book Risk Perceptions of Hurricane Track Forecasts written by Idamis Del Valle-Martínez and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous research has suggested that misinterpretations of hurricane track forecasts can lead to errors in estimation of perceived risk. One factor that can be used to understand these errors in judgment of risk perception is called optimistic bias, in which an individual perceives that compared to another person they are at less risk. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine how risk perceptions of hurricane track forecasts are influenced by the optimistic bias and changes in the forecasts. Students from three coastal universities took a survey regarding hurricane risk from two different track scenarios of a hypothetical hurricane approaching their university. Results indicated that optimism and perceptions of hurricane tracks were not correlated. Regardless of changes in forecast tracks, students perceived the same level of risk by the final forecast. This research has important social implications because hurricane track forecasts are part of the hurricane decision-making process.
Download or read book Perceptions on Hurricane Information and Tracking Maps written by Hao-Che Tristan Wu and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical storms and hurricanes have caused extensive casualties and damage in past decades. Recent data indicate that the annual losses from hurricanes are increasing, partly because the U.S. coastal population has increased significantly in the past 20 years. Moreover, the housing values in these areas have increased as well. Thus, population and economic growth in the vulnerable coastal areas have made hurricanes a serious problem and created the potential for a catastrophic loss of life. The existing research literature lacks a sufficient scientific understanding of hurricane information searching and dynamic protective action decision making during events in which additional information becomes available over time. The hurricane evacuation decision context is well understood; the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues hurricane forecast advisories every 6 hours until a hurricane turns into a tropical depression. Emergency managers and residents in the risk area are most likely to make decisions on their protective actions based on these hurricane forecast advisories. Therefore, this study uses the DynaSearch program to conduct a computer-based experiment that examines hurricane information search pattern by students playing the roles of county emergency managers, their understanding of hurricane strike probabilities and their choices of protective action recommendations during four different hurricane scenarios. This study simulates the approach of a hurricane by providing experiment participants a sequence of hurricane forecast advisories and examining how they search for information, change their threat perceptions and implement protective actions over time. The results show that (1) People prefer graphic information (especially the forecast track and uncertainty cone) over numeric and text information about hurricanes; (2) hurricane intensity was the parameter that was most commonly viewed and hurricane wind radius was the parameter that was least commonly viewed; (3)forecast track had a large number of clicks and long click durations, whereas uncertainty cone had fewer clicks but longer click durations; (4) participants' judgments of the extent to which they used each of the parameters were not entirely consistent with their search patterns; (5) participants found a hurricane's current location and day-5 forecast were the most informative time periods; (6) there was no evidence that participants' personal concern (whether a hurricane will head toward to their county or not) affected their information search pattern in this study; (7) participants failed to evacuate appropriate risk areas in timely manner; and (8) participants had difficulty interpreting strike probabilities. These results suggest the problem of misinterpretation of the uncertainty cone is less severe than some might have concluded from the evidence provided by Broad et al. (2007). Moreover, the results suggest that participants were able to utilize the available information in the tables and tracking maps to make reasonable judgments about each city's relative strike probability. However, their failure to take appropriate actions suggests a need for more comprehensive training on what actions to take in response to the hurricane information displays. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151680
Download or read book THREAT SCORE STATISTIC FOR HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS written by J. P. Gerrity and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Perceptions of Hurricane Hazards in the Mid Atlantic Region written by Michelle Elizabeth Saunders and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Mid-Atlantic region of the United States is susceptible to many tropical cyclone hazards such as storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding from heavy rainfall. Within the past fifteen years this region has experienced hurricanes Isabel in 2003 and Irene in 2011, as well as several tropical storms. This region was also influenced by post-tropical Sandy in 2012. The perception of hurricane hazards among residents of the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States is currently unknown as there is a lack of research on the comprehension of information from warning graphics. This research uses a total of 8 hypothetical scenarios (4 pairs) that vary each hurricane's track and size to assess hurricane hazard risk perception. Each scenario is represented using a four-paneled graphic featuring the National Hurricane Center's Cone of Uncertainty, a new storm surge map, and a new damaging wind map created by the authors. A Qualtrics survey created and administered via email, asked Mid-Atlantic residents key questions about their concern for personal harm and evacuation plans. Participants of this survey perceive potential for damaging winds, falling trees, and the size of the storm to be the greatest threats. Both scenarios with track lines that moved inland were also seen as most concerning. Evacuation rates were greatest for each large storm and for both scenarios where the track line moved inland.
Download or read book Hurricane Risk written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details the outcomes of new research focusing on climate risk related to hurricanes. Topics include numerical simulation of tropical cyclones, through tropical cyclone hazard estimation to damage estimates and their implications for commercial risk. Inspired by the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: From Hazard to Impact, this book brings together leading international academics and researchers, and provides a source reference for both risk managers and climate scientists for research on the interface between tropical cyclones, climate and risk.
Download or read book A Safer Future written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.
Download or read book Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards written by J. Nemec and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles provides a unique overview of the state of the science in the prediction of and response to natural disaster events. The uniqueness of this volume is that it comprises more than just the physical science perspective. For each natural hazard included in this text, social scientists have provided research summaries of how public perceptions are related to the actions that are likely to be undertaken when people are confronted with information about the existence of a natural hazard threat. In this book the reader can find a truly international characterization of both hazard perception and prediction. The American and European contributors provide state-of-the-science overviews of empirically-based research knowledge that expands beyond any national boundaries. This approach has resulted in broader understanding of what is currently known about predicting natural hazard events and predicting how those events, or warnings of them, will be responded to by different types of societies.
Download or read book Perceptions of Hurricane Risk Among North Carolina s Coastal Residents written by William Pace and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception of risk to natural hazards is a very complex topic and there are multiple factors that influence it. However, two factors have generally been overlooked. Through the use of mail-out surveys of residents in Beaufort County and Dare County, North Carolina, this research explores how risk perception varies with location and addresses how changes in the characteristics of a hurricane influence the perception of their risk to hurricanes. Location is addressed using two definitions. The first definition used the physical location of the resident (either Inner Banks or Outer Banks), while the second definition used the anticipated impacts from the hurricane (flooding, storm surge, wind damage). This created three locational factors that were tested for their association with risk perception. Hurricane Irene provides an interesting case study because of the change in track and intensity prior to landfall. Using the Chi Square Test for Association, the results show a significant difference in risk perception with location. Based on location on either the Inner Banks or Outer Banks, risk perception varies with respect to the issued advisories. Based on residing in one of the damage areas, risk perception varies with hazards associated with hurricanes. Results also show that track change and intensity change influence the perception of risk. Based on track change, Inner Banks residents believed they were at greater risk and had increases in their perceptions of personal risk. However, based on intensity change, Outer Banks residents perceived themselves to be at more risk than did Inner Banks residents. Overall, a majority of respondents believed that the track change increased the hazards associated with hurricanes, while the intensity reduction decreased them. While both location and damage area show their own associations with risk perception, combining location with damage area presents a broader picture of how risk perception varies with location.
Download or read book 2006 Hurricane Forecast and At risk Cities written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Disaster Prevention and Prediction and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1871 1992 written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities written by Michael K. Lindell and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2004 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation "This volume is recommended for practitioners in private emergency management and federal, state, and local governments, as well as students studying risk communication, health communication, emergency management, and environmental policy and management."--BOOK JACKET. Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Download or read book Under the Weather written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2001-06-29 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Programs Projections written by National Hurricane Research Laboratory and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
