Download or read book Risk Managing the Uncertainty in VAR Parameters written by Jason C. Hsu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing risk successfully requires a detailed understanding of the distributions from which random shocks to asset prices are drawn. However, there is uncertainty in both the actual distribution of returns and the parameters characterizing the distribution. In this chapter, we focus on the uncertainty in estimating the distributional parameters, and how this uncertainty impacts value at risk calculations. We illustrate some traditional (but naïve) methods for handling parameter uncertainty and show that these methods could often lead to poor risk management results. We then provide techniques for quantifying risk more accurately when distribution parameters are estimated with low precision or when there are disagreements over the parameter estimates.

Download or read book The VAR Implementation Handbook Chapter 18 Risk Managing the Uncertainty in VaR Model Parameters written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2009-02-19 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The following is a chapter from The VaR Implementation Handbook, which examines the latest strategies for measuring, managing, and modeling risk across a variety of applications. Packed with the insights, methods, and models that make experienced professionals competitive all over the world, this comprehensive guide features cutting-edge research and findings from some of the industry's most respected academics, practitioners, and consultants.

Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license

Download or read book Managing Uncertainty Mitigating Risk written by Nick Firoozye and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-20 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners can see a more holistic and complete picture.

Download or read book Handbook of Phytosanitary Risk Management written by Charles Yoe and published by CABI. This book was released on 2020-09-30 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Phytosanitary risk management is essential to the global economy as well as the world's ability to feed itself. This book is about understanding the fundamentals of phytosanitary risk management for trade and non-trade issues, and how to manage those risks in an effective and efficient manner that is consistent with the international regulatory framework. Its purpose is to provide the international phytosanitary community and its principal stakeholders with a strong foundation in risk management concepts and a thorough guide to best practices.

Download or read book The VAR Implementation Handbook written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2009-03-15 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [flap] For investors, risk is about the odds of losing money, and Value at Risk (VaR) is grounded in that common-sense fact. VAR modeling answers, “What is my worst-case scenario?” and “How much could I lose in a really bad month?” However, there has not been an effective guidebook available to help investors and financial managers make their own VaR calculations--until now. The VaR Implementation Handbook is a hands-on road map for professionals who have a solid background in VaR but need the critical strategies, models, and insights to apply their knowledge in the real world. Heralded as “the new science of risk management,” VaR has emerged as the dominant methodology used by financial institutions and corporate treasuries worldwide for estimating precisely how much money is at risk each day in the financial markets. The VaR Implementation Handbook picks up where other books on the subject leave off and demonstrates how, with proper implementation, VaR can be a valuable tool for assessing risk in a variety of areas-from equity to structured and operational products. This complete guide thoroughly covers the three major areas of VaR implementation--measuring, modeling risk, and managing--in three convenient sections. Savvy professionals will keep this handbook at their fingertips for its: Reliable advice from 40 recognized experts working in universities and financial institutions around the world Effective methods and measures to ensure that implemented VaR models maintain optimal performance Up-to-date coverage on newly exposed areas of volatility, including derivatives Real-world prosperity requires making informed financial decisions. The VaR Implementation Handbook is a step-by-step playbook to getting the most out of VaR modeling so you can successfully manage financial risk.

Download or read book Decision Support Systems for Risk Based Management of Contaminated Sites written by Antonio Marcomini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-16 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Support Systems for Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Sites addresses decision making in environmental risk management for contaminated sites, focusing on the potential role of decision support systems in informing the management of chemical pollutants and their effects. Considering the environmental relevance and the financial impacts of contaminated sites all over the post-industrialized countries and the complexity of decision making in environmental risk management, decision support systems can be used by decision makers in order to have a more structured analysis of a problem at hand and define possible options of intervention to solve the problem. Accordingly, the book provides an analysis of the main steps and tools for the development of decision support systems, namely: environmental risk assessment, decision analysis, spatial analysis and geographic information system, indicators and endpoints. Sections are dedicated to the review of decision support systems for contaminated land management and for inland and coastal waters management. Both include discussions of management problem formulation and of the application of specific decision support systems. This book is a valuable support for environmental risk managers and for decision makers involved in a sustainable management of contaminated sites, including contaminated lands, river basins and coastal lagoons. Furthermore, it is a basic tool for the environmental scientists who gather data and perform assessments to support decisions, developers of decision support systems, students of environmental science and members of the public who wish to understand the assessment science that supports remedial decisions.

Download or read book Risk Management Strategies Applied To Environmental Cleanup In Central And Eastern Europe Proceedings Of The International School Of Innovative Technologies For Cleaning The Environment written by Richard C Ragaini and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1997-05-27 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book evaluates current technology and policy practices in the United States and Western Europe in the areas of environmental risk assessment, risk prioritization and risk management, and recommends strategies for successful risk management regarding cleanups in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).The primary focus is on the evaluation of proven risk management stategies, which can gain public and regulatory acceptance, and thereby accelerate the demonstration and use of innovative US and host country environmental technologies in CEE. This will, in turn, help to accelerate the use of innovative, cost-effective cleanup systems at US DOE sites, and the use of US environmental technologies in foreign markets.The book emphasizes using risk management strategies as key components of integrated life cycle systems designed to treat hazardous/radioactive waste, and to remediate soil/groundwater plumes. Other topics of discussion include: partnerships with international companies for commercial applications; acceptance by CEE governments; and relationships to other US government initiatives.

Download or read book Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models written by David Ardia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-08 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.

Download or read book Risk Management of Chemicals in the Environment written by Hans M. Seip and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Council of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) established the "Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society" (CCMS) in 1969. The CCMS was charged with developing meaningful environmental and social programmes for solving existing problems and developing long-range goals for environmental protection. In 1983, at the Fall Plenary of the CCMS, the Norwegian delegate Dr. H.C. Christensen, proposed a Pilot Study on "Risk Management of Chemicals in the Environment". A draft proposal, written by Dr. Kari Kveseth of the Center for Industrial Research in Oslo, was presented. Dr. Christensen also informed the participants at the meeting that Norway was willing to act as the Pilot Country. The project was initially planned for 3 years, but it was later extended through 1987. The inaugural meeting was held in Oslo in April 1984 with participants from Denmark, Greece, France and Italy, in addition to representatives from several Norwegian institutions. The attendees concluded that a Pilot Study, as delineated in the draft proposal, would be useful, and it was decided to work out a detailed project plan based on the proposal.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Sustainable Fishery Systems written by Anthony Charles and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-08-14 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: SUSTAINABLE FISHERY SYSTEMS An up-to-date and interdisciplinary guide to sustainable fisheries Fisheries, whether small-scale or large-scale, are filled with complexity and uncertainty. Making the right decisions to successfully manage fisheries for sustainability and resilience requires a systems approach — including both natural and human elements, and their many interactions. To understand fisheries, and how they change over time, a diverse range of fishery knowledge must be brought together. Sustainable Fishery Systems, 2nd edition meets these needs. The new edition provides essential information that can be readily applied within government, community, industrial, academic and research settings. Sustainable Fishery Systems, 2nd edition retains the first edition’s emphasis on themes such as sustainability, resilience, uncertainty, complexity, and conflict, and expands its treatment of topics that have, since the first edition’s publication, become crucial to consider in the field of fisheries. As a result, readers will find: Updated and expanded coverage of topics including coastal conservation, ecosystem-based management, co-management, community-based management, and more New chapters covering connections between fisheries and marine protected areas, biodiversity conservation, climate and fisheries, and multi-sectoral management A more detailed introduction to the “systems” perspective of fisheries, reflecting the substantial growth in that subject’s importance, and covering in detail the natural, human and governance aspects of fisheries. Sustainable Fishery Systems, 2nd edition is an indispensable interdisciplinary resource for educators, researchers, government agencies, and fisheries managers.

Download or read book New Risks Issues and Management written by Louis A. Cox and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 701 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of the Society for Risk Analysis. It provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they existed in 1986. In selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i) to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and applications in established areas of risk analysis. In the three years since the conference, many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research. Several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home, high-voltage electric fields, and the AIDS epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines since 1986. Older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume. A theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and uncertain risks that they create.

Download or read book Uncertainty Management for Robust Industrial Design in Aeronautics written by Charles Hirsch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 799 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations.