Download or read book Revisiting the Market Risk Premium written by James M. Sfiridis and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though the profound importance of the market risk premium to finance is unquestioned, its actual measurement has been problematic for both academics and analysts alike. What exactly is the magnitude of the ex post market risk premium? What is its relationship with the expected or ex ante premium? Though finance theory estimates an historical equity premium of 1-2%, simple arithmetic averaging of historical data gives a greater mean of 5-6%, an anomaly known as the equity premium puzzle. More recent findings provide a still greater equity premium point estimate. This paper explores the hypothesis that statistical misspecification of historical equity premium data may be an important contributing factor for such contradictions.

Download or read book Revisiting the Equity Risk Premium written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001, Martin Leibowitz organized an Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Forum for CFA Institute, in which the participants discussed issues related to the ERP and made estimates for the future. This forum was repeated by Leibowitz, Brett Hammond, and Laurence Siegel in 2011, setting a precedent for a decennial forum. Siegel organized and moderated the discussion in 2021, and the proceedings from that event make up the current book. The participants in 2021 were (in alphabetical order) Robert Arnott, Clifford Asness, Mary Ida Compton, Elroy Dimson, William Goetzmann, Roger Ibbotson, Antti Ilmanen, Martin Leibowitz, Rajnish Mehra, Thomas Philips, and Jeremy Siegel. Each participant made a presentation, which was then discussed by the whole group. Finally, a roundtable discussion involving all of the participants was moderated by Laurence Siegel. Ibbotson and Dimson discussed historical returns in different countries. Ibbotson focused on the United States, while Dimson took a global industrial-country view. The history goes back almost a century (Ibbotson) or more than a century (Dimson), providing a look at how returns have evolved over a wide variety of conditions. Ibbotson also presented his method for making probabilistic forecasts of returns. Dimson, who is British, showed that “American exceptionalism” is one way to understand the results. Asness looked at the effectiveness of Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) valuation measure for forecasting. Valuations rose over the period he studied, and a lively discussion was had about why this may have occurred. Arnott focused on the growth rate of dividends, which has been very slow in per-share terms, and argued (with much debate from the other participants) that buybacks are only a partial substitute for dividends. Leibowitz, also looking at valuation as the lodestone of return forecasts, set forth a “growth adjustment” that brought his forecast in line with those made by others. Compton, a consultant to pension plans, discussed the challenges of communicating lower expected returns to clients. She also emphasized that expected returns “don’t always come true,” they’re just someone’s best forecast. Ilmanen broke up the expected return into its component parts: dividends, real growth, inflation, and so forth. Doing this, he said, allows one to debate the estimates for each part and ascertain how accurate each of the estimates is. Philips started by presenting a method for forecasting bond returns. He then turned to equities, for which he compared forecasts with subsequent realizations using a variety of forecast methods. Mehra discussed a number of issues related to the existence of premiums (equity risk, value, small cap, and so forth) and concluded that, although some of these are unstable, the ERP is highly stable. Jeremy Siegel advocated a “back to basics” approach using dividend and earnings yields, dividend and earnings growth rates, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasized that earnings can be calculated in a number of different way, and said that accounting practices have become more conservative over the years. Goetzmann concluded the session by reporting that one company, a water mill in France, had almost 600 years of historical return data and that an asset pricing model could be tested using those data. According to this model, the stock price is the present value of expected future dividends and is supported by the evidence. In sum, because of high valuations and low interest rates, the participants expect lower total returns in the future than in the past. A forward-looking ERP of 4% to 5% was the consensus of the group.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-05-26 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium Puzzle Revisited written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Risk Premium Factor written by Stephen D. Hassett and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A radical, definitive explanation of the link between loss aversion theory, the equity risk premium and stock price, and how to profit from it The Risk Premium Factor presents and proves a radical new theory that explains the stock market, offering a quantitative explanation for all the booms, busts, bubbles, and multiple expansions and contractions of the market we have experienced over the past half-century. Written by Stephen D. Hassett, a corporate development executive, author and specialist in value management, mergers and acquisitions, new venture strategy, development, and execution for high technology, SaaS, web, and mobile businesses, the book convincingly demonstrates that the equity risk premium is proportional to long-term Treasury yields, establishing a connection to loss aversion theory. Explains stock prices from 1960 through the present including the 2008/09 "market meltdown" Shows how the S&P 500 has consistently reverted to values predicted by the model Solves the equity premium puzzle by showing that it is consistent with findings on loss aversion Demonstrates that three factors drive valuation and stock price: earnings, long term growth, and interest rates Understanding the stock market is simple. By grasping the simplicity, business leaders, corporate decision makers, private equity, venture capital, professional, and individual investors will fully understand the system under which they operate, and find themselves empowered to make better decisions managing their businesses and investment portfolios.

Download or read book The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity Revisited written by Josh Lerner and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-04-15 with total page 715 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers contributions to questions relating to the economics of innovation and technological change. Central to the development of new technologies are institutional environments and among the topics discussed are the roles played by universities and the ways in which the allocation of funds affects innovation.

Download or read book The Affluent Society Revisited written by Mike Berry and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-12-12 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book revisits John Kenneth Galbraith's classic text The Affluent Society in the context of the background to, and causes of, the global economic crisis that erupted in 2008. Each chapter takes a major theme of Galbraith's book, distils his arguments, and then discusses to what extent they cast light on current developments, both in developed economies and in the economics discipline. The themes include: inequality, insecurity, inflation, debt, consumer behaviour, financialization, the economic role of government ('social balance'), the power of ideas, the role of power in the economy, and the nature of the good society. It considers the current problems of capitalism and the huge challenges facing democratic governments in tackling them. Written in non-technical language, this book is accessible to students of economics and the social sciences as well as to those who would have read The Affluent Society and the general reader interested in contemporary affairs and public policy.

Download or read book Revisiting Risk Weighted Assets written by Vanessa Le Leslé and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. We discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. We then discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.

Download or read book The Equity Premium Revisited written by Bradford Cornell and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent collapse of the stock market has refocused attention on the question of the equity risk premium. One of the most comprehensive studies of the equity premium, completed by Fama and French in 2000, is now significantly out of date and requires refreshing. This article provides that update. We find that various procedures for estimating the premium from historical data are now converging to an annual equity premium over short-term commercial paper on the order of four percent.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium A Contextual Literature Review written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research into the equity risk premium, often considered the most important number in finance, falls into three broad groupings. First, researchers have measured the margin by which equity total returns have exceeded fixed-income or cash returns over long historical periods and have projected this measure of the equity risk premium into the future. Second, the dividend discount model—or a variant of it, such as an earnings discount model—is used to estimate the future return on an equity index, and the fixed-income or cash yield is then subtracted to arrive at an equity risk premium expectation or forecast. Third, academics have used macroeconomic techniques to estimate what premium investors might rationally require for taking the risk of equities. Current thinking emphasizes the second, or dividend discount, approach and projects an equity risk premium centered on 3½% to 4%.

Download or read book Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics Revisited written by Chennat Gopalakrishnan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-02 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics Revisited is the first attempt to bring together a selection of classic papers in natural resource economics, alongside reflections by highly regarded professionals about how these papers have impacted the field. The seven papers included in this volume are grouped into five sections, representing the five core areas in natural resource economics: the intertemporal problem; externalities and market failure; property rights, institutions and public choice; the economics of exhaustible resources; and the economics of renewable resources. The seven papers are written by distinguished economists, five of them Nobelists. The papers, originally published between 1960 and 2000, addressed key issues in resource production, pricing, consumption, planning, management and policy. The original insights, fresh perspectives and bold vision embodied in these papers had a profound influence on the readership and they became classics in the field. This is the first attempt to publish original commentaries from a diverse group of scholars to identify, probe and analyse the ways in which these papers have impacted and shaped the discourse in natural resource economics. Although directed primarily at an academic audience, this book should also be of great appeal to researchers, policy analysts, and natural resource professionals, in general. This book was published as a series of symposia in the Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.

Download or read book Research Roundtable Discussion written by Ivo Welch and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Classical Economists Revisited written by D. P. O'Brien and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-12-11 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Classical Economists Revisited conveys the extent, diversity, and richness of the literature of economics produced in the period extending from David Hume's Essays of 1752 to the final contributions of Fawcett and Cairnes in the 1870s. D. P. O'Brien thoroughly updates, rewrites, and expands the vastly influential work he first published in 1975, The Classical Economists. In particular, he sets out to make clear the shaping of a comprehensive vision of the working of an open economy, building on the great work of Adam Smith in Wealth of Nations, a development that was substantially affected by the contributions of David Ricardo. He shows that the Classical literature was in fact the work of a host of thinkers from a wide range of backgrounds. Covering the intellectual roots of the Classical literature and its methodological approaches, and the developed theories of value, distribution, money, trade, population, economic growth, and public finance, and examining the Classical attitudes toward a rich variety of policy issues, The Classical Economists Revisited considers not only the achievements of the Classical writers but also their legacy to the later development of economics. A seminal contribution to the field, this book will be treasured for many years to come by economists, historians of economics, instructors and their students, and anyone interested in the sweeping breadth and enduring influence of the classical economists.

Download or read book Pricing Metal Futures The Two Regime Pricing Model revisited written by Matthias Lassak and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2017-11-01 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Two-Regime-Pricing (TRP) model developed by Bühler, Korn and Schöbel (2004) is an important bridge between two strands of the literature of commodity futures pricing. It incorporates both the notion of a “convenience yield” and the idea of pricing based on the underlying spot price process. This work uses the TRP model and applies the findings to the pricing of industrial metal futures. In detail, the purpose of this study is to price a variety of futures contracts written on the traded industrial metals Aluminium, Aluminium Alloy, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Zinc using the TRP model and to analyze ist strengths and weaknesses in doing so. Given the spot price specification, a bootstrap maximum likelihood estimation is performed to determine the model parameters. Given the estimation results, the out-of-sample performance of the TRP model is compared to two benchmark models in the literature. In addition, the behavior of the theoretical futures prices is matched to metal futures properties observed in the market. By outlining the statistical challenges in estimation and forecasting in much detail, this work is valuable for researchers and academics in the field of derivatives pricing.

Download or read book Persistence in the Market Risk Premium written by Guglielmo Maria Caporale and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany and Japan, and for robustness purposes considers different time horizons (2, 5 and 10 years) and frequencies (monthly and weekly). The empirical findings in most cases imply that the market risk premium is a highly persistent variable which can be characterized as a random walk process, whilst its volatility is less persistent and exhibits stationary long-memory behaviour. There is also evidence that in the case of the US the degree of persistence has changed as a results of various events; this is confirmed by both endogenous break tests and the associated subsample estimates. Market participants should take this evidence into account when designing their investment strategies.

Download or read book Democratic Brazil Revisited written by Peter R. Kingstone and published by University of Pittsburgh Pre. This book was released on 2008-10-26 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brazil presents a compelling example of twenty-first century democracy in action. In this sequel to their landmark study Democratic Brazil, editors Peter Kingstone and Timothy J. Power have assembled a distinguished group of U.S.- and Brazilian-based scholars to assess the impact of competitive politics on Brazilian government, institutions, economics, and society. The 2002 election of Lula da Silva and his Worker's Party promised a radical shift toward progressive reform, transparency, and accountability, opposing the earlier centrist and market-oriented policies of the Cardoso government. But despite the popular support reflected in his 2006 reelection, many observers claim that Lula and his party have fallen short of their platform promises. They have moved to the center in their policies, done little to change the elitist political culture of the past, and have engaged in "politics as usual" in executive-legislative relations, leading to allegations of corruption. Under these conditions, democracy in Brazil remains an enigma. Progress in some areas is offset by stagnation and regression in others: while the country has seen renewed economic growth and significant progress in areas of health care and education, the gap between rich and poor remains vast. Rampant crime, racial inequality, and a pandemic lack of personal security taint the vision of progress. These dilemmas make Brazil a particularly striking case for those interested in Latin America and democratization in general.