Download or read book Restoring Public Debt Sustainability written by George Kopits and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-10-17 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Restoring Public Debt Sustainability: The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions represents the first comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances through real-time monitoring of the soundness of budgetary policymaking. The chapters, authored by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs. Consequently, useful lessons and implications are drawn for the design and practical operation of such institutions. The timeliness of the volume is underscored by the potential role of fiscal watchdogs in containing the public debt crisis that has engulfed a number of countries. Indeed, the recent proliferation of these institutions has been in response to the need for enhancing policy credibility of highly indebted governments in financial markets and, more generally, for strengthening the quality of economic governance. The first part of the book deals with key analytical and institutional issues: the political environment, the scope and limits of these institutions, the delegation of monetary policymaking to an independent body, and the implications of rising public indebtedness. The second part contains case studies of institutions that, for the most part, were born as a result of domestic political developments. The third part presents the experience of institutions whose origins can be traced directly or indirectly to an earlier or a recent financial crisis. The chapters are written from a multidisciplinary - economic, financial, political, legal - perspective, intended for academics, researchers, and practitioners alike.
Download or read book Restoring Public Debt Sustainability written by George Kopits and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances. The chapters, written by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Barry W. Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-04 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.
Download or read book Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises written by Emanuele Baldacci and published by . This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the experience of 99 advanced and developing economies in restoring fiscal sustainability during 1980 - 2008 after banking crises, which led to large accumulation of public debt. It finds that successful debt reductions have relied chiefly on generation of large primary surpluses in post-crisis years through current expenditure cuts. These savings have been accompanied by growth-promoting measures and a supportive monetary policy stance. While these results are consistent with the existing literature, the paper finds that revenue-raising measures increased the likelihood of successful consolidation in countries that faced large adjustment needs after the crisis. This reflects the fall in effectiveness of spending cuts when deficit reduction needs are large independent of initial tax ratios.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
Download or read book Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt written by Cansın Kemal Can and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.
Download or read book Argentina written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Assistance report on Argentina sets out IMF staff’s views on a feasible macroeconomic framework that could underpin a debt restructuring operation that would restore debt sustainability with high probability. Given that the authorities are in the process of elaborating the precise content of their policy agenda, the feasible macroeconomic framework is anchored around the authorities’ broad policy announcements and predicated on the IMF staff’s view that a set of policies could be fully developed and implemented to render the macroeconomic framework achievable. However, there are important downside risks to the feasible macroeconomic framework, especially if the adverse global and domestic economic effects of the fast-moving COVID-19 pandemic are larger and more prolonged than assumed in this note. Economic conditions are rapidly worsening, and financial conditions are characterized by very high volatility. This greatly increases the uncertainty about the macroeconomic framework, with potential implications for the IMF staff’s assessment of debt sustainability.
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability written by Ludger Schuknecht and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-15 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents the facts, arguments and scenarios around public debt from a global perspective. Especially the largest economies feature record debt and fiscal risks, including from population ageing and financial imbalances. Given low interest rates, there is no imminent problem. But at some point, debt will have to come down. There are four possible scenarios how debt could come down. First, governments could economise and reform. Second, governments could default. Third, governments could erode the real value of debt via inflation and negative real interest rates. However, this scenario cannot continue forever. Policy errors can prompt a loss of confidence, destabilisation and crisis. This fourth scenario last included the largest economies in the 1970s. It would become a major global challenge if it were to happen again in today's interconnected world.
Download or read book Cross Country Experience with Restructuring of Sovereign Debt and Restoring Debt Sustainability written by International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08-29 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper is organized as follows: Section II provides a cross-country overview of the economic conditions, including the composition of sovereign debt and its dynamics prevailing prior to the debt operations, and a discussion of the scope and outcomes—in terms of the debt relief provided by creditors—of the debt restructurings. Section III analyzes the debt profile, liquidity position, DSAs and accompanying stress tests, and an EWS to assess whether debt sustainability has been restored in each country case. Conclusions are set out in Section IV.
Download or read book Greece written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-23 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides preliminary debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of Greece. Debt was deemed sustainable, but not with high probability, when the first program was adopted in May 2010. The much deeper-than-expected recession necessitated significant debt relief in 2011–12 to maintain the prospect of restoring sustainability. Serious implementation problems caused a sharp deterioration in sustainability, raising fresh doubts about the realism of policy assumptions, especially from mid–2014. Developments since last summer suggest that a realignment of critical policy, and DSA assumptions can no longer be deferred if the DSA is to remain credible. Staff believes that revised program targets remain sufficiently ambitious to warrant continued support from Greece’s European partners.
Download or read book Restoring Sustainable Macroeconomic Policies in the United States written by Barry Warren Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By looking at the macroeconomic frameworks and experiences of countries such as Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland, Restoring Sustainable Macroeconomic Policies in the U.S. presents a way for the United States to normalize fiscal and monetary policy in order to achieve sustainable debt in the post-COVID-19 era.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a multi-period setting corresponds to the value of an option on an option on total government assets. Hence, the ALM compound option model is better suited for analyzing and evaluating the risk profile of public debt than existing one-period models, and is especially useful for analyzing the soundness of exit strategies from the large fiscal expansions undertaken by G-20 countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. As an illustration, the model is used to analyze the risk profile and sustainability of Australia's public debt under different policies.
Download or read book A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.
Download or read book What Really Drives Public Debt written by Pablo Anaya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a novel approach to detail the propagation of shocks to public debt. The modeling technique involves a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimator with an endogenous debt accumulation equation. It explores how the main drivers of sovereign debt dynamics—the primary balance, the interest rate, growth and inflation—interact with each other. Such analysis is particularly useful for debt sustainability analysis. We find that some interactions exacerbate the impact of shocks to the accumulation of debt, while others act to stabilize debt dynamics. Furthermore, the choice of monetary policy regime plays an important role in these debt dynamics – countries with constrained monetary policy are more at risk from changes in market sentiment and must rely much more on fiscal policy to constrain debt.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability written by Mr.Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
