Download or read book Relationship Between Implied Volatility and Realised Volatility the Case of the German Stock Index Options Market written by Panagiotis Pastos and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Relationship between Implied and Realized Volatility in the Danish Option and Equity Markets written by Charlotte Strunk Hansen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we examine the information content of options on the Danish KFX share index. These options are traded very infrequently and with a low volume. We consider the relationship between the volatility implied in an option's price and the subsequently realized volatility. Recently, Christensen and Prabhala (1998) find that implied volatility in at-the-money one month OEX call options on the Samp;P100 index is an unbiased and efficient forecast of ex-post realized index volatility after the 1987 stock market crash. Gwilym and Buckle (1999) study the UK FTSE100 index and find that although historical volatility estimates have greater accuracy, implied volatility contains more information, based on regression tests, in particular when very short maturities are avoided. In this paper we investigate whether the UK and US markets are special, and whether the infrequent trading and low volume in the KFX case lead to bias and inefficiency in the implied volatility forecast. We examine one month at-the-money KFX calls and similar puts, and we introduce an implied volatility measure that combines information from both call and put prices. We find that implied volatility indeed contains information about realized index return volatility. In fact, implied volatility remains significant even in the multiple regression where historical volatility is included, it subsumes the information content of this, and the bias in the implied volatility forecast is insignificant. The results suggest that the finding in the OEX market may be extended to the much smaller KFX market.
Download or read book The Information Content in Implied Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Dean Diavatopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current literature is inconclusive as to whether idiosyncratic risk influences future stock returns and the direction of the impact. Prior studies are based on historical realized volatility. Implied volatilities from option prices represent the market's assessment of future risk and are likely a superior measure to historical realized volatility. We use implied idiosyncratic volatilities on firms with traded options to examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns. We find a strong positive link between implied idiosyncratic risk and future returns. After considering the impact of implied idiosyncratic volatility, historical realized idiosyncratic volatility is unimportant. This performance is strongly tied to small size and high book-to-market equity firms.
Download or read book The Relation between Implied and Realized Volatility in the Danish Option and Equity Markets written by Charlotte Strunk Hansen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the conclusions to be drawn concerning the informational efficiency of illiquid options depend critically on whether one is careful to recognize and appropriately deal with the econometrics of the errors-in-variables problem. This paper examines the information content of options on the Danish KFX share index. We consider the relation between the volatility implied in an option's price and the subsequently realized index return volatility. Since these options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, the errors-in-variables problem is potentially large. We address the problem directly using instrumental variables techniques. We find that when measurement errors are controlled for, call option prices even in this very illiquid market contain information about future realized volatility over and above the information contained in historical volatility.
Download or read book Implied and Realized Volatility in the Cross Section of Equity Options written by Manuel Ammann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a complete sample of US equity options, we analyze patterns of implied volatility in the cross-section of equity options with respect to stock characteristics. We find that high-beta stocks, small stocks, stocks with a low-market-to-book ratio, and non-momentum stocks trade at higher implied volatilities after controlling for historical volatility. We find evidence that implied volatility overestimates realized volatility for low-beta stocks, small caps, low-market-to-book stocks, and stocks with no momentum and vice versa. However, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that implied volatility is an unbiased predictor of realized volatility in the cross section.
Download or read book The Implied Volatility of Greek Options and the Political Risk in Eurozone written by Dimosthenis Karaflos and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The implied volatility of any stock market can be used in order to measure the future expectations of risk and returns. The purpose of this paper is to measure the levels of risk in the Greek stock market for the brief time interval of 02/02/2015-03/31/2015. The reason of choosing this time interval to be examined is that during these dates many political decisions have been made, and as a consequence the uncertainty in Greece was higher with a significant impact in the Eurozone. Thus, it is of great importance to examine the implied volatility of the Greek stock market and measure its' relevance with the implied volatility of the German stock market. The reason that these stock markets have been selected relies on the fact that the German stock market represents the most stable economy of the Eurozone, and on the other hand, the Greek stock market represents the most unstable economy inside the Eurozone. Under these circumstances, the implied volatilities of these stock markets are going to be modeled in order to detect the relationship between them.
Download or read book The Relationship Between Implied and Realized Volatility in Danish Option and Equity Markeds written by Charlotte Strunk Hansen and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Long Memory and the Relation between Implied and Realized Volatility written by Federico M. Bandi and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that the predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of a European option (regressand) is likely to be a fractional cointegrating relation. Because cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this classical regression cannot be used to test for option market efficiency and short-term unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. Using narrow-band spectral methods, we provide consistent estimates of the long-run relation between implied and realized volatility even when implied volatility is measured with error and/or volatility is priced but the volatility risk premium is unobservable. Although little can be said about short-term unbiasedness, our results largely support a notion of long-run unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility.
Download or read book Option implied Volatility as a Predictor of Realized Volatility in Derivative Markets written by Thabiso Ramashala and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Determinants of Implied Volatility Function on the Nifty Index Options Market written by Vijayakumar Narayanamoorthy and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we examine two important propositions for the Indian options market: (1) the relationship between implied volatility and moneyness referred to as volatility smile and (2) the potential determinants of the smile asymmetry. We use daily data for the S&P CNX Nifty index call and put options and the underlying market index for the calendar years 2004 and 2005. We find that the volatility functions exhibit a positive slope in the Indian context using alternative measures of moneyness, thus confirming the consistency of our findings. Our evidence on smile asymmetry is in contrast with findings for mature markets, which exhibit negative asymmetry profiles in general. This may be owing to differences in investors' behaviour and market microstructure between mature and emerging markets. We also show that historical volatility and time to expiration are the potential determinants of smile asymmetry in India, as is the case with international evidence. We feel that a strong theoretical foundation should be provided for this observable empirical phenomenon.
Download or read book Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets written by Eugenie M.J.H. Hol and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.
Download or read book Volatility Risk Premiums Embedded in Individual Equity Options written by Nikunj Kapadia and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research indicates that index option prices incorporate a negative volatility risk premium, thus providing a possible explanation of why Black-Scholes implied volatilities of index options on average exceed realized volatilities. This examination of the empirical implication of a market volatility risk premium on 25 individual equity options provides some new insights.While the Black-Scholes implied volatilities from individual equity options are also greater on average than historical return volatilities, the difference between them is much smaller than for the market index. Like index options, individual equity option prices embed a negative market volatility risk premium, although much smaller than for the index option - and idiosyncratic volatility does not appear to be priced.These empirical results provide a potential explanation of why buyers of individual equity options leave less money on the table than buyers of index options.
Download or read book The Role and Relevance of Option Implied Volatility in Financial Markets written by Megha Agarwal and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research paper is an effort to review the relevance of option implied volatility in the modern day financial markets. Volatility indices such as VIX, VFTSE and India VIX act as efficient predictors of market volatility over the near term. The role implied volatility plays in providing a measure of investors fears, explaining stock returns, credit default swap valuation, measuring bank risk, and understanding interest rate models for pricing contingent claims has been emphasized. The cases of Euro dollar option markets, S&P 100 index options, agricultural commodities on New York Board of Trade, sweet crude oil futures on NYMEX have been discussed in particular.This measure of investors fear gauge is found to be superior to logit regression and Altman's Z. It would have been helpful in predicting the UK Banking Crisis 2008. This important determinant of volatility must be incorporated in risk management strategies to lead to a robust and integrated risk management framework.
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Finance written by Jin-Chuan Duan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any financial asset that is openly traded has a market price. Except for extreme market conditions, market price may be more or less than a “fair” value. Fair value is likely to be some complicated function of the current intrinsic value of tangible or intangible assets underlying the claim and our assessment of the characteristics of the underlying assets with respect to the expected rate of growth, future dividends, volatility, and other relevant market factors. Some of these factors that affect the price can be measured at the time of a transaction with reasonably high accuracy. Most factors, however, relate to expectations about the future and to subjective issues, such as current management, corporate policies and market environment, that could affect the future financial performance of the underlying assets. Models are thus needed to describe the stochastic factors and environment, and their implementations inevitably require computational finance tools.
Download or read book Model Based Versus Model Free Implied Volatility written by Ph.D. Biktimirov (CFA, Ernest N.) and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study compares the efficacy of Black-Scholes implied volatility (BSIV) with model-free implied volatility (MFIV) in providing volatility forecasts for 13 North American, European, and Asian stock market indexes: S&P 500 (United States), S&P/ASX 200 (Australia), S&P/TSX 60 (Canada), AEX (the Netherlands), EURO STOXX 50 (Eurozone) CAC 40 (France), DAX 30 (Germany), HSI (Hong Kong), NIFTY 50 (India), Nikkei 225 (Japan), KOSPI 200 (Korea), SMI (Switzerland), and FTSE 100 (United Kingdom). In-sample volatility forecasts show that both BSIV and MFIV significantly improve the fit of a GJR-GARCH(1,1) model. However, BSIV dominates MFIV for predicting future volatility. Out-of-sample one-month volatility forecasts also indicate that BSIV outperforms both MFIV and GJR-GARCH(1,1) volatility.
Download or read book Handbook of Research on New Challenges and Global Outlooks in Financial Risk Management written by Madaleno, Mara and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk affects many different companies, industries, and institutions, and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused more challenges than before to arise. In the wake of these new challenges, new risk management strategies must arise. Risk affects many companies differently, though in the aftermath of a global pandemic, similar management strategies may be adapted to maintain a flourishing business. Financial risk management has become increasingly important in the last years, and a profound understanding of this subject is vital. The Handbook of Research on New Challenges and Global Outlooks in Financial Risk Management discusses the financial instruments firms use to manage the difference kinds of financial risks and risk management practices in a variety of different countries. This book offers an international focus of risk management, comparing different practices from all over the world. Covering topics such as bank stability, environmental assets, and perceived risk theory, this book is a valuable research source for regulatory authorities, accountants, managers, academicians, students, researchers, graduate students, researchers, faculty, and practitioners.
Download or read book How Wacky is the DAX written by Jelena Stapf and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
