Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Download or read book Rise of the Red Engineers written by Joel Andreas and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-10 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rise of the Red Engineers explains the tumultuous origins of the class of technocratic officials who rule China today. In a fascinating account, author Joel Andreas chronicles how two mutually hostile groups—the poorly educated peasant revolutionaries who seized power in 1949 and China's old educated elite—coalesced to form a new dominant class. After dispossessing the country's propertied classes, Mao and the Communist Party took radical measures to eliminate class distinctions based on education, aggravating antagonisms between the new political and old cultural elites. Ultimately, however, Mao's attacks on both groups during the Cultural Revolution spurred inter-elite unity, paving the way—after his death—for the consolidation of a new class that combined their political and cultural resources. This story is told through a case study of Tsinghua University, which—as China's premier school of technology—was at the epicenter of these conflicts and became the party's preferred training ground for technocrats, including many of China's current leaders.

Download or read book Rule of Experts written by Timothy Mitchell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2002-11-18 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can one explain the power of global capitalism without attributing to capital a logic and coherence it does not have? Can one account for the powers of techno-science in terms that do not merely reproduce its own understanding of the world? Rule of Experts examines these questions through a series of interrelated essays focused on Egypt in the twentieth century. These explore the way malaria, sugar cane, war, and nationalism interacted to produce the techno-politics of the modern Egyptian state; the forms of debt, discipline, and violence that founded the institution of private property; the methods of measurement, circulation, and exchange that produced the novel idea of a national "economy," yet made its accurate representation impossible; the stereotypes and plagiarisms that created the scholarly image of the Egyptian peasant; and the interaction of social logics, horticultural imperatives, powers of desire, and political forces that turned programs of economic reform in unanticipated directions. Mitchell is a widely known political theorist and one of the most innovative writers on the Middle East. He provides a rich examination of the forms of reason, power, and expertise that characterize contemporary politics. Together, these intellectually provocative essays will challenge a broad spectrum of readers to think harder, more critically, and more politically about history, power, and theory.

Download or read book Rise of the Red Engineers written by Joel Andreas and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-10 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rise of the Red Engineers explains the tumultuous origins of the class of technocratic officials who rule China today. In a fascinating account, author Joel Andreas chronicles how two mutually hostile groups—the poorly educated peasant revolutionaries who seized power in 1949 and China's old educated elite—coalesced to form a new dominant class. After dispossessing the country's propertied classes, Mao and the Communist Party took radical measures to eliminate class distinctions based on education, aggravating antagonisms between the new political and old cultural elites. Ultimately, however, Mao's attacks on both groups during the Cultural Revolution spurred inter-elite unity, paving the way—after his death—for the consolidation of a new class that combined their political and cultural resources. This story is told through a case study of Tsinghua University, which—as China's premier school of technology—was at the epicenter of these conflicts and became the party's preferred training ground for technocrats, including many of China's current leaders.

Download or read book The Coming Collapse of China written by Gordon G. Chang and published by Random House. This book was released on 2001-09-15 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 2010. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society. Beijing's cautious reforms have left the country stuck midway between communism and capitalism, Chang writes. With its impending World Trade Organization membership, for the first time China will be forced to open itself to foreign competition, which will shake the country to its foundations. Economic failure will be followed by government collapse. Covering subjects from party politics to the Falun Gong to the government's insupportable position on Taiwan, Chang presents a thorough and very chilling overview of China's present and not-so-distant future.

Download or read book Red and Expert written by Ruth Gamberg and published by Schocken. This book was released on 1977 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Communism and China written by Benjamin I. Schwartz and published by . This book was released on 2013-10-01 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Cultural Revolution written by Frank Dikötter and published by Bloomsbury Press. This book was released on 2017-06-06 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concluding volume--following Mao's Great Famine and The Tragedy of Liberation--in Frank Dikötter's award-winning trilogy chronicling the Communist revolution in China. After the economic disaster of the Great Leap Forward that claimed tens of millions of lives from 1958–1962, an aging Mao Zedong launched an ambitious scheme to shore up his reputation and eliminate those he viewed as a threat to his legacy. The Cultural Revolution's goal was to purge the country of bourgeois, capitalistic elements he claimed were threatening genuine communist ideology. Young students formed the Red Guards, vowing to defend the Chairman to the death, but soon rival factions started fighting each other in the streets with semiautomatic weapons in the name of revolutionary purity. As the country descended into chaos, the military intervened, turning China into a garrison state marked by bloody purges that crushed as many as one in fifty people. The Cultural Revolution: A People's History, 1962–1976 draws for the first time on hundreds of previously classified party documents, from secret police reports to unexpurgated versions of leadership speeches. After the army itself fell victim to the Cultural Revolution, ordinary people used the political chaos to resurrect the market and hollow out the party's ideology. By showing how economic reform from below was an unintended consequence of a decade of violent purges and entrenched fear, The Cultural Revolution casts China's most tumultuous era in a wholly new light.

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Download or read book Red Flags written by George Magnus and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A trusted economic commentator provides a penetrating account of the threats to China's continued economic riseUnder President Xi Jinping, China has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, but the country also faces serious challenges. In this critical take on China’s future, economist George Magnus explores four key traps that China must confront and overcome in order to thrive: debt, middle income, the Renminbi, and an aging population. Looking at the political direction President Xi Jinping is taking, Magnus argues that Xi’s authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country’s economic aspirations.Thorough and well researched, the book also investigates the potential for conflicts over trade, China’s evolving relationship with Trump, and the country’s attempt to win influence and control in Eurasia through the Belt and Road initiative.

Download or read book Mao s Little Red Book written by Alexander C. Cook and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-03-06 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the fiftieth anniversary of Quotations from Chairman Mao, this pioneering volume examines the book as a global historical phenomenon.

Download or read book Big Sister Little Sister Red Sister written by Jung Chang and published by Knopf. This book was released on 2019 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most famous sisters in China, the three Soong sisters from Shanghai were at the center of power during a time of wars, revolutions and seismic transformations. Red Sister, Ching-ling married Sun Yat-sen; Little Sister, May-ling, became Madame Chiang Kai-shek; Big Sister, Ei-Ling, became Chiang's unofficial main adviser, and made herself one of China's richest women.

Download or read book R E D Marketing written by Greg Creed and published by HarperCollins Leadership. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Create breakthrough marketing campaigns by harnessing the power of R.E.D. Marketing: a transparent and flexible methodology straight from marketing powerhouse Yum! Brands. Sidestep the marketing books, courses, and even TED talks that offer hypothetical explanations that sound sensible and embrace the proven, systematic approach of R.E.D. Marketing, which the recent CEO and current CMO of Yum! Brands applied to lead Taco Bell and KFC to double digit growth. This book, filled with simple frameworks and engaging stories, will help everyone in your company understand what really works for driving sustainable brand growth and business success. In 2011, Greg Creed had just been elevated from President to CEO of Taco Bell, a brand in deep distress at the time. It was on his shoulders to turn things around quickly along with co-author and CMO, Ken Muench. Together, they developed the R.E.D (Relevance, Ease, Distinctiveness) method. It’s simple methodology does not require complicated terms and a PhD to understand, it’s actually quite simple—marketing works in three very different ways: Relevance—Is it relevant to the marketplace? Ease—Is it easy to access and use? Distinction—Does it stand out from competition? By combining actual examples from Yum! and other recognizable brands of every size around the world with the latest findings in marketing, neuroscience, and behavioral economics, and the author’s own experience marketing three different brands across 120 countries, your brand can set and achieve a truly breakthrough marketing campaign utilizing R.E.D Marketing.

Download or read book Blue Metros Red States written by David F. Damore and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " Assessing where the red/blue political line lies in swing states and how it is shifting Democratic-leaning urban areas in states that otherwise lean Republican is an increasingly important phenomenon in American politics, one that will help shape elections and policy for decades to come. Blue Metros, Red States explores this phenomenon by analyzing demographic trends, voting patterns, economic data, and social characteristics of twenty-seven major metropolitan areas in thirteen swing states—states that will ultimately decide who is elected president and the party that controls each chamber of Congress. The book's key finding is a sharp split between different types of suburbs in swing states. Close-in suburbs that support denser mixeduse projects and transit such as light rail mostly vote for Democrats. More distant suburbs that feature mainly large-lot, single-family detached houses and lack mass transit often vote for Republicans. The book locates the red/blue dividing line and assesses the electoral state of play in every swing state. This red/blue political line is rapidly shifting, however, as suburbs urbanize and grow more demographically diverse. Blue Metros, Red States is especially timely as the 2020elections draw near. "

Download or read book Red and Expert written by David Wade Chambers and published by Deakin University Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Produced for units HUW108, HUX108, HUW208, HUX208 (Knowledge and power) offered by the School of Humanities in Deakin University's Open Campus Program.

Download or read book Afterlives of Chinese Communism written by Christian Sorace and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2019-06-25 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Afterlives of Chinese Communism comprises essays from over fifty world- renowned scholars in the China field, from various disciplines and continents. It provides an indispensable guide for understanding how the Mao era continues to shape Chinese politics today. Each chapter discusses a concept or practice from the Mao period, what it attempted to do, and what has become of it since. The authors respond to the legacy of Maoism from numerous perspectives to consider what lessons Chinese communism can offer today, and whether there is a future for the egalitarian politics that it once promised.

Download or read book Under Red Skies written by Karoline Kan and published by Hachette Books. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A deeply personal and shocking look at how China is coming to terms with its conflicted past as it emerges into a modern, cutting-edge superpower. Through the stories of three generations of women in her family, Karoline Kan, a former New York Times reporter based in Beijing, reveals how they navigated their way in a country beset by poverty and often-violent political unrest. As the Kans move from quiet villages to crowded towns and through the urban streets of Beijing in search of a better way of life, they are forced to confront the past and break the chains of tradition, especially those forced on women. Raw and revealing, Karoline Kan offers gripping tales of her grandmother, who struggled to make a way for her family during the Great Famine; of her mother, who defied the One-Child Policy by giving birth to Karoline; of her cousin, a shoe factory worker scraping by on 6 yuan (88 cents) per hour; and of herself, as an ambitious millennial striving to find a job--and true love--during a time rife with bewildering social change. Under Red Skies is an engaging eyewitness account and Karoline's quest to understand the rapidly evolving, shifting sands of China. It is the first English-language memoir from a Chinese millennial to be published in America, and a fascinating portrait of an otherwise-hidden world, written from the perspective of those who live there.