Download or read book Recoveries in the Middle East North Africa and Pakistan written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.

Download or read book Recoveries in the Middle East North Africa and Pakistan written by Francesco Grigoli and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.

Download or read book Corporate Vulnerabilities in the Middle East North Africa and Pakistan in the Wake of COVID 19 Pandemic written by Nordine Abidi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-29 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes corporate vulnerabilities in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan (MENAP hereafter) in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Using a sample of nearly 700 firms from eleven countries in MENAP, we assess the non-financial corporate (NFC) sector’s liquidity and solvency risk and viability over the medium term under different stress test scenarios. Our findings suggest that the health crisis has exacerbated vulnerabilities in the corporate sector, though the effects are heterogenous across the region. Small firms, which entered the pandemic in a more vulnerable position, would remain under high liquidity stress over the medium term, putting a substantial share of these firms’ debt at risk of default. Similarly, liquidity needs of firms in contact-intensive sectors have also worsened and would remain elevated in 2022-23. We also show that an adverse scenario of subdued growth and premature withdrawal of policy support would impair the capacity to service interest expenses, especially among small firms, resulting in higher insolvency risk. Overall, our results indicate that some segments of the MENAP corporate sector could remain reliant on policy support during the recovery phase and that structural reforms are critical to save distressed but viable firms from bankruptcy and ensure an efficient liquidation of “zombie” firms.

Download or read book Nation building written by Jerry Martin Rosenberg and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a study of geopolitics and economic interaction. It provides opportunities for maintaining global stability and peace and interfaces with western concepts of continuity via the World Trade Organization and other globalization approaches.

Download or read book The Rebirth of the Middle East written by Jerry M. Rosenberg and published by Hamilton Books. This book was released on 2009-09-28 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Rebirth of the Middle East,Rosenberg discusses how peace, stability, and prosperity are dependent upon economic and trade relations between Israel and Palestine, as well as other neighboring Arab and Muslim countries. The world is poised to participate in this healing process with funding and training and lacks only the needed conditions to proceed. Rosenberg asserts that this process of stabilization can benefit from a reinvented Marshall Plan, modeled on the 1948 U.S. humanitarian European Recovery Program. In the long run, success will be measured by the creation of a Middle East Economic Community. As you point out, there is an opportunity to define the future of the Middle East in terms of reconciliation and coexistence rather than confrontation and violence. There are no limits to what can be done if the region's energy and talents can be channeled into creating new opportunities and building a land as bountiful and peaceful as it is holy. —Bill Clinton, former President of the United States Praise for Jerry Rosenberg's Nation-Building: A Middle East Recovery Program: To Jerry M. Rosenberg- With much respect for his attempt to organize a great dream. I believe you have addressed yourself to the very foundations which will lie at the heart of the future of the region and I hope indeed that the day is not far off when the plan will be brought to realization. —Shimon Peres, former Prime Minster of Israel [Nation-Building provides] insights into the interplay of underlying variables, encompassing significant regional, global, religious, secular, socio-political, and historical factors, of the permeability of the Middle East. —el-Sayed el-Aswad, Ph.D., The University of Bahrain, Digest of Middle East Studies I hope, by drawing on the Marshall Plan, you are able to formulate a blueprint that can succeed in the Middle East. I further hope that you are able to use the Marshall Plan to illustrate to others how such plans have been successful in the past, and how, despite the daunting odds, such a plan could create economic growth, democracy, and peace in our region. I wish you much success in your important work. —Natan Sharansky, former Deputy Prime Minister of Israel

Download or read book Revenue Mobilization for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery in the Middle East and Central Asia written by Ms. Genevieve Verdier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-06 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Domestic revenue mobilization has been a longstanding challenge for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Insufficient revenue has often constrained priority social and infrastructure spending, reducing countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, improve growth prospects, and address climate related challenges. Moreover, revenue shortfalls have often been compensated by large and sustained debt accumulation, raising vulnerabilities in some countries, and limiting fiscal space to address future shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have compounded challenges to sustainable public finances, underscoring the need for revenue mobilization efforts. The recent global crises have also exacerbated existing societal inequalities and highlighted the importance of raising revenues in an efficient and equitable manner. This paper examines the scope for additional tax revenue mobilization and discusses policies to gradually raise tax revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion in the Middle East and Central Asia. The paper’s main findings are that excluding hydrocarbon revenues, the region’s average tax intake lags those of other regions; the region’s fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) face particular challenges in mobilizing tax revenue; In general, there is considerable scope to raise additional tax revenue; countries have made efforts to raise tax collection, but challenges remain; tax policy design, notably low tax rates and pervasive tax exemptions, is an important factor driving tax revenue shortfalls; weak tax compliance, reflecting both structural features and challenges in revenue administration, also plays a role; and personal income tax systems in the region vary in their progressivity—the extent to which the average tax rate increases with income—and in their ability to redistribute income. These findings provide insights for policy action to raise revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion. The paper’s analysis points to these priorities for the region to improve both efficiency and equity of tax systems: improving tax policy design to broaden the tax base and increase progressivity and redistributive capacity; strengthening revenue administration to improve compliance; and implementing structural reforms to incentivize tax compliance, formalization, and economic diversification.

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Investment Policy Perspectives written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Middle East and North Africa Investment Policy Perspectives highlights the considerable progress in investment policies made by the region’s governments over the past decade. Yet, the reform momentum needs to be sustained and deepened for the benefits of investment to be shared with society at large and for growth to be sustainable, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting global economic upheaval.

Download or read book The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2021 Middle East and Central Asia Trade Offs Today for Transformation Tomorrow written by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-19 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.

Download or read book Research for Development in the Middle East and North Africa written by International Development Research Centre (Canada) and published by IDRC. This book was released on 2000 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research for Development in the Middle East and North Africa

Download or read book State Owned Enterprises in Middle East North Africa and Central Asia Size Costs and Challenges written by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-20 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.

Download or read book Aftermath of the Arab Uprisings written by Jerry M. Rosenberg and published by Hamilton Books. This book was released on 2012-08-02 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2011 Arab uprisings are integrated into the movement to create a regional economic community for a potential twenty-eight nations, with nearly 500 million citizens. A reinvented Marshall Plan, supported internationally, is forthcoming. This updated book provides strategic models to develop the organizations required. In the end, stability and a raised living standard will evolve. As you point out, there is an opportunity to define the future of the Middle East in terms of reconciliation and coexistence rather than confrontation and violence. There are no limits to what can be done if the region's energy and talents can be channeled into creating new opportunities and building a land as bountiful and peaceful as it is holy. —Bill Clinton, former President of the United States Praise for Jerry Rosenberg's Nation-Building: A Middle East Recovery Program: To Jerry M. Rosenberg- With much respect for his attempt to organize a great dream. I believe you have addressed yourself to the very foundations which will lie at the heart of the future of the region and I hope indeed that the day is not far off when the plan will be brought to realization. —Shimon Peres, former Prime Minster of Israel [Nation-Building provides] insights into the interplay of underlying variables, encompassing significant regional, global, religious, secular, socio-political, and historical factors, of the permeability of the Middle East. —el-Sayed el-Aswad, Ph.D., The University of Bahrain, Digest of Middle East Studies I hope, by drawing on the Marshall Plan, you are able to formulate a blueprint that can succeed in the Middle East. I further hope that you are able to use the Marshall Plan to illustrate to others how such plans have been successful in the past, and how, despite the daunting odds, such a plan could create economic growth, democracy, and peace in our region. I wish you much success in your important work. —Natan Sharansky, former Deputy Prime Minister of Israel

Download or read book The Mobility of Displaced Syrians written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-01-27 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The war in Syria, now in its eighth year, continues to take its toll on the Syrian people. More than half of the population of Syria remains displaced; 5.6 million persons are registered as refugees outside of the country and another 6.2 million are displaced within Syria's borders. The internally displaced persons include 2 million school-age children; of these, less than half attend school. Another 739,000 Syrian children are out of school in the five neighborhood countries that host Syria's refugees. The loss of human capital is staggering, and it will create permanent hardships for generations of Syrians going forward. Despite the tragic prospects for renewed fighting in certain parts of the country, an overall reduction in armed conflict is possible going forward. However, international experience shows that the absence of fighting is rarely a singular trigger for the return of displaced people. Numerous other factors—including improved security and socioeconomic conditions in origin states, access to property and assets, the availability of key services, and restitution in home areas—play important roles in shaping the scale and composition of the returns. Overall, refugees have their own calculus of return that considers all of these factors and assesses available options. The Mobility of Displaced Syrians: An Economic and Social Analysis sheds light on the 'mobility calculus' of Syrian refugees. While dismissing any policies that imply wrongful practices involving forced repatriation, the study analyzes factors that may be considered by refugees in their own decisions to relocate. It provides a conceptual framework, supported by data and analysis, to facilitate an impartial conversation about refugees and their mobility choices. It also explores the diversified policy toolkit that the international community has available—and the most effective ways in which the toolkit can be adapted—to maximize the well-being of refugees, host countries, and the people in Syria.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2016 Middle East and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-20 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue focuses on the ongoing adjustment to cheaper oil and subdued economic activity for oil-producing countries, as well as the weak and fragile recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It also discusses global spillovers from China’s rebalancing and the growth of fiscal deficits.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-17 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes the world economic outlook as of April 2018, projecting that advanced economies will continue to expand above their potential growth rates before decelerating, while growth in emerging markets in developing economies will rise before leveling off. It details global prospects and policies, including risks to the forecast, and essential determinants of long-term economic growth: labor force participation in advanced economies, the declining share of manufacturing jobs globally and in advanced economies, and the process through which innovative activity and technological knowledge spread across national borders.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.