Download or read book Reasons Explanations and Decisions written by Thomas J. McKay and published by Cengage Learning. This book was released on 2000 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text provides a guide for students to develop their evaluation abilities and to consider their beliefs in a mature and intelligent way. It includes examples and exercises which strengthen critical and expository abilities.
Download or read book Thinking Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
Download or read book Thinking and Reasoning written by Ken Manktelow and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2012-02-13 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The area of psychological research reviewed in this book is one that is not only increasing in popularity in college curricula, but is also making an ever larger impact on the world outside the classroom. Drawing upon research originally cited in Ken Manktelow’s highly successful publication Reasoning and Thinking, this completely rewritten textbook reflects on the revolutionary changes that have occurred in the field in recent years, stemming from the huge expansion in research output, as well as new methods and explanations, and the appearance of numerous books on the subject aimed at the popular market. The main areas covered are probability judgment, deductive and inductive reasoning, decision making, hypothetical thinking and rationality. In each case, the material is almost entirely new, with topics such as the new paradigm in reasoning research, causal reasoning and counterfactual thinking appearing for the first time. The book also presents an extended treatment of decision making research, and contains a chapter on individual and cultural influences on thinking. Thinking and Reasoning provides a detailed, integrated and approachable treatment of this area of cognitive psychology, and is ideal reading for intermediate and advanced undergraduate students; indeed, for anyone interested in how we draw conclusions and make choices.
Download or read book Sidetracked written by Francesca Gino and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2013-02-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You may not realize it but simple, irrelevant factors can have profound consequences on your decisions and behavior, often diverting you from your original plans and desires. Sidetracked will help you identify and avoid these influences so the decisions you make do stick—and you finally reach your intended goals. Psychologist and Harvard Business School professor Francesca Gino has long studied the factors at play when judgment and decision making collide with the results of our choices in real life. In this book she explores inconsistent decisions played out in a wide range of circumstances—from our roles as consumers and employees (what we buy, how we manage others) to the choices that we make more broadly as human beings (who we date, how we deal with friendships). From Gino’s research, we see when a mismatch is most likely to occur between what we want and what we end up doing. What factors are likely to sway our decisions in directions we did not initially consider? And what can we do to correct for the subtle influences that derail our decisions? The answers to these and similar questions will help you negotiate similar factors when faced with them in the real world. For fans of Dan Ariely and Daniel Kahneman, this book will help you better understand the nuances of your decisions and how they get derailed—so you have more control over keeping them on track.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows, on numerous examples, how to make decisions in realistic situations when we have both uncertainty and constraints. In most these situations, the book's emphasis is on the why-question, i.e., on a theoretical explanation for empirical formulas and techniques. Such explanations are important: they help understand why these techniques work well in some cases and not so well in others, and thus, help practitioners decide whether a technique is appropriate for a given situation. Example of applications described in the book ranges from science (biosciences, geosciences, and physics) to electrical and civil engineering, education, psychology and decision making, and religionand, of course, include computer science, AI (in particular, eXplainable AI), and machine learning. The book can be recommended to researchers and students in these application areas. Many of the examples use general techniques that can be used in other application areas as well, so it is also useful for practitioners and researchers in other areas who are looking for possible theoretical explanations of empirical formulas and techniques.
Download or read book Decision Making written by Ray Crozier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-09-11 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an exciting new collection of recent research on the actual processes that humans use when making decisions in their everyday lives and in business situations. The contributors use cognitive psychological techniques to break down the constituent processes and set them in their social context. The contributors are from many different countries and draw upon a wide range of techniques, making this book a valuable resource to cognitive psychologists in applied settings, economists and managers.
Download or read book Aspects of Agency written by Alfred R. Mele and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mele develops a view of paradigmatically free actions--including decisions--as indeterministically caused by their proximal causes. He mounts a masterful defense of this thesis that includes solutions to problems about luck and control widely discussed in the literature on free will and moral responsibility.
Download or read book Reason in Society written by Paul Diesing and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Standards of Decision in Law written by Kevin M. Clermont and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A standard of decision is the law's designation of how certain a decisionmaker must be to render a decision. Because all decisionmaking takes place in a world of uncertainty, the law requires every legal actor before making any sort of decision to measure his or her degree of certainty against the applicable standard. Because in every corner of law the lawmakers must set standards in accordance with policy objectives, the standards prove essential to understanding any branch of law. Because those standards have an intensely practical impact on legal outcome, they merit careful study by all lawyers. Despite the subject being thus both wide-ranging and critically important, this book is the first to treat it in depth. The book first catalogs the variety of standards that exist in law. A pattern emerges, which advances in cognitive psychology nicely explain. The book then zeros in on the most conspicuous yet peculiarly distinctive of the standards of decision, which is called the standard of proof and which specifies the sureness required of a factfinder to decide that a contested fact exists. After surveying relevant empirical research and past theoretical explanations, the book constructs a new understanding by drawing on recent breakthroughs in the field of logic. Historical and comparative perspectives on the standard of proof then provide angles from which to illuminate the new understanding. In sum, this book synthesizes decades of thinking and research on standards of decision and pushes forward to elaborate and explain the subject. It does so in a way that will be useful to a broad readership among all those who study the law. "Legal decisionmaking requires judicial actors to decide cases despite inherent uncertainty Although this practice is ubiquitous, the standards for how certain a decisionmaker must be to render a decision have gone underexplored. In Standards of Decision in Law, Professor Kevin M. Clermont presents a comprehensive examination of the topic, employing empirical research, cognitive psychology, and logic to explain why certain standards are suitable to certain contexts. ...Standards of Decision in Law offers much-needed insight into the rationale behind different standards of proof, concluding that, although 'room for reform exists,' our current probabilistic standards are most appropriate given the cognitive limitations of decisionmakers (p. 282)." -- Harvard Law Review
Download or read book Philosophical Explanations written by Robert Nozick and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1983-03-17 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this highly original work, Robert Nozick develops new views on philosophy’s central topics and weaves them into a unified philosophical perspective. It is many years since a major work in English has ranged so widely over philosophy’s fundamental concerns: the identity of the self, knowledge and skepticism, free will, the question of why there is something rather than nothing, the foundations of ethics, the meaning of life. Writing in a distinctive and personal philosophical voice, Mr. Nozick presents a new mode of philosophizing. In place of the usual semi-coercive philosophical goals of proof, of forcing people to accept conclusions, this book seeks philosophical explanations and understanding, and thereby stays truer to the original motivations for being interested in philosophy. Combining new concepts, daring hypotheses, rigorous reasoning, and playful exploration, the book exemplifies how philosophy can be part of the humanities.
Download or read book Evidential Decision Theory written by Arif Ahmed and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.
Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Download or read book Effective Decision Making written by Edoardo Binda Zane and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-04-28 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to quickly empower you to make better decisions by giving you step-by-step explanations of the best techniques. We always make decisions under uncertainty and pressure, especially in business. We need faster and better decisions to cope, but we don''t have the time to learn how to make them well. That is where I come in. I wrote this book to allow you to make better decisions without spending weeks studying theory and practice. THE INTRODUCTION gives you a snapshot of two decision-making biases, of the worst mistake you can do when making decision, and a lesson taken straight from philosophy. - Decision Biases (why your brain isn''t always your friend in decisions) - The Worst Mistake in Decision-Making - A Lesson From Another Time THE FIRST CHAPTER looks at frameworks of reference, meaning how you can apply decision-making to achieve your goals, for example how and why some decisions are able to automatically give you a competitive advantage. - The OODA Loop - The Recognition-Primed Decision Model - GROW or the John Whitmore Model - The PDSA Cycle CHAPTERS 2 TO 5 look at separate phases of decision-making: understanding your context, understanding the problem, generating solutions and selecting one option out of many. 2 - CONTEXT Contexts can be very different - and there is no one size fits all approach, which is why this book provides you with five. - SWOT and PEST - TELOS - Porter''s Five Forces - Causal Loops Diagrams 3 - PROBLEM ASSESSMENT Before making decisions, then, you need to work on finding out exactly what you are trying to solve. This chapter gives you 5 tools to do so: - Root Cause Analysis: Ishikawa''s Diagramand the 5 Whys Technique - Pareto Analysis - Kipling Method (5W1H) - CATWOE 4 - GENERATING IDEAS In "pure" decision-making, little attention is given to this phase, as it belongs to a different field: creativity. This book includes two tools: - Zwicky''s Box - SCAMPER 5 - WEIGHING ALTERNATIVES This book gives you six tools for this, each one with its specificities: - Weights and Factors: the Grid Analysis and the KT Matrix - The Paired Comparison Analysis - The Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix - The Analytic Hierarchy Process - The Eisenhower Matrix CHAPTER 6 AND 7 look at group decisions, meaning whether it''s a good idea to make decisions in a group and, if it is, how that group should make decisions. 6 - DO YOU NEED YOUR TEAM? You can either involve your team in decisions or exclude them. Often, managers are torn between these two options - you have three tools to help you though: - The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model - The Hoy-Tarter Model - The Hersey-Blanchard Model 7 - GROUP TECHNIQUES To be used when making decisions in a group is necessary. - The Nominal Group Technique - The Delphi Method - Hartnett''s Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making Model - The Stepladder Technique - DeBono''s Six Thinking Hats - The Charette Procedure - RAPID CHAPTERS 8 AND 9 look at decisions in corporate strategy and analyse a decision''s consequence 8 - CORPORATE STRATEGY These decision tools have all been developed for corporations, but they still hold value for smaller businesses. - The BCG Matrix - The Advantage Matrix - The GE Matrix - Blind Spot Analysis 9 - CONSEQUENCES In other words: "how can I make sure that the decision I made is the best one and will work in my specific situation?" Unfortunately nobody can answer this. Any decision method can only skew the odds of having made the right decision in your favour. That said, there are a few techniques you can apply. - Impact Assessment - Plus-Minus-Interesting - Decision Trees - Cost-Benefit Analysis - Futures Wheel
Download or read book Rational Decisions in Organisations written by Frédéric Adam and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-05-30 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.
Download or read book Historical Explanation written by Gunnar Schumann and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-11-14 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is concerned with the appropriate form of explanations in historiography and the social sciences. It combines action theory and philosophy of historiography and develops a theory of teleological explanations of human actions based on late-Wittgensteinian and Ordinary Language Philosophy insights. In philosophy of action, many philosophers favor causal theories of human action. Additionally, in current philosophy of historiography the majority view is that historians should explain historical phenomena by their causes. This book pushes back against these mainstream views by reviving an anti-causal view of explanation of current and past human actions. The author argues that disciplines that deal with human actions require a certain form of explanation, namely a teleological or intentional explanation. This means that past human actions and their results will have to be explained by reasons of agents, not by causes. Therefore, historiography employs a method of explanation which is in stark contrast to the sciences. The author thus proposes a Verstehen (understanding) approach in historiography and the social sciences. Historical Explanation will be of interest to scholars and advanced students working in philosophy of action, philosophy of history, and philosophy of the social sciences.
Download or read book Why Flip a Coin written by Harold Warren Lewis and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Role of Explanations and Need for Uniqueness in Consumer Decision Making written by Itamar Simonson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
