Download or read book Realignment Risk in the Exchange Rate Mechanism written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Realignment Risk in the Exchange Rate Mechanism written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Assessing Realignment Risk in the Exchange Rate Mechanism Through Pound Mark Cross Rate Options written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a new data source, options on the pound-mark cross-rate, to examine the credibility of the exchange rate band between the German mark and the British pound in the Exchange Rate Mechanism from October l990 through Ausust l992. Using two arbitrage-based tests, we provide clear evidence of imperfect credibility throughout much of this period and determine minimum bounds perceived by the market for the quot;intensityquot; of realignment, a measure incorporating both probability and magnitude of realignment. Finally, we identify a positive empirical relationship between implied volatility and the exchange rate's distance from the center of the band that proves useful for evaluating alternative theoretical models of target zones.

Download or read book Assessing Realignment Risk in the Exchange Rate Mechanism Through Pound mark Cross rate Options written by Jose M. Campa and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Realignment Expectations in the ERM written by Sinimaaria Ranki and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to analyze realignment expectations in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, in particular with reference to the five year period (1987-1992) during which no realignments were done.

Download or read book Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the Krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism. Various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed. The movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a Wiener process on fundamental and by a Poisson jump process with endogenous realignment size. The realignment mechanism is such that (except in cases where a speculative attack occurs) no jump in fundamental is needed to accompany the jump in the exchange rate. A risk neutral valuation of currency options is constructed. Some properties of option values under realignment risk are illustrated by numerical results.

Download or read book Realignment Expectations Forward Rate Bias and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.

Download or read book French German Interest Rate Differentials and Time Varying Realignment Risk written by Mr.Francesco Caramazza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-01-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’ realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.

Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The foreign exchange risk premium in an exchange rate target zone regime with devaluation/realignment risks is derived. In contrast to previous literature, the exchange rate's heteroscedasticity within the bard, as well as a separate devaluation/realignment risk, is taken into account. The risk premium is then the sum of two separate risk premia, arising from stochastic exchange rate movements within the bard and from stochastic devaluations/realignments when the band is shifted. Both real and nominal exchange rate premia are considered. The real and nominal risk premia from movements within the band are very small for narrow target zones and can therefore be disregarded. The real and nominal risk premia from devaluations/realignments are larger but still relatively small proportions of the expected rate of devaluation/realignment.

Download or read book Expected and Predicted Realignments written by Andrew Rose and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990) . We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.

Download or read book Target Zones and Exchange Rates written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we develop an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone. The model is general enough to nest most theoretical and empirical models in the existing literature. We find evidence of two types of jumps in exchange rates. Realignment jumps are those that are associated with the periodic realignments of the target zone and within-the-band jumps are those that can be accommodated within the current target zone. The exchange rate may jump outside the current target zone band, in the case of a realignment, but when no jump occurs the target zone is credible (there is zero probability of a realignment) and the exchange rate must stay within the band. We incorporate jumps, in general, by conditioning the distribution of exchange rate changes on a jump variable where the probability and size of a jump vary over time as a function of financial and macroeconomic variables. With this more general model, we revisit the empirical evidence from the European Monetary System regarding the conditional distribution of exchange rate changes, the credibility of the system, and the size of the foreign exchange risk premia. In contrast to some previous findings, we conclude that the FF/DM rate exhibits considerable non-linearities, realignments are predictable and the credibility of the system did not increase after 1987. Moreover, our model implies that the foreign exchange risk premium becomes large during speculative crises. A comparison with the Deutschemark/Dollar rate suggests that an explicit target zone does have a noticeable effect on the time-series behavior of exchange rates.

Download or read book Assessing Target Zone Credibility written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.

Download or read book Fixed Exchange Rates with Escape Clauses written by Cristina Bodea and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the political economy of realignments to fixed exchange rates and suggests that the use of realignments is less likely when there are political benefits from stable exchange rates and when linkages across other issue areas increase the costs of realignment. More specifically for the case of the European Monetary System (EMS), the expectation is that realignments are related to partisanship, support for the broader European integration, trade integration, resource transfers from the European Community, as well as countries reacting to the political and economic costs of realignment in other EMS members. Hypotheses are tested using binomial logit models on monthly data on exchange rate realignments for all EMS countries from 1979 to 1993. I find lower realignment risk for left wing policy-makers and countries with more trade links to Germany, whereas more intra-European Community resource transfers appear to go to countries facing higher realignment risk. Also, realignments are less likely when the rest of EMS member countries have stable international reserves and their governments are pro-European.

Download or read book Using Option Prices to Estimate Realignment Probabilities in the European Monetary System written by Allan M. Malz and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Managing Foreign Exchange Risk written by David F. DeRosa and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an expanded and enhanced edition of the popular Managing Foreign Exchange Risk which first appeared in 1990. Students of finance, traders, institutional investors and corporate treasurers commend the book for its even balance between theory and applications. Practitioners praise its clear explanation of currency derivatives theory. Students of finance appreciate that the book is infused with actual foreign exchange market conventions and real-world numerical examples. This second edition has been greatly expanded with materials on the mechanics of the foreign exchange and options markets. The sections on the international monetary system have been updated, especially with respect to the European monetary system. New sections have been added on exotic currency options, specifically on barriers, average rate, basket and quantos options. There are two new chapters, one on currency option applications and another on currency overlay management.

Download or read book Realignment Expectations Forward Rate Bias and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization written by Peter Isard and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.

Download or read book Expected and Predicted Realignments written by Lars E.O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990) . We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.