Download or read book Real Money vs Play Money Forecasting Accuracy in Online Prediction Markets written by Sebastian Diemer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-04-08 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Other, grade: 1,0, London School of Economics, course: Management & Strategy, language: English, abstract: Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures). This thesis contributes new insights by analysing 44,169 trading observations on ipredict, where real-money and play-money contracts are traded on a variety of events. Forecasting accuracy is analysed on overall trading activity as well as comparison of equal contracts under different monetary incentive schemes. Statistical models are built to analyse the influence of order volumes and days to expiry under both incentive schemes. Ignoring different events in underlying trading activity, play-money contracts imply statistically insignificant excess accuracy. In direct comparison of equal events, real-money contracts, however, real-money contracts predict at significantly higher accuracy. This thesis finds a relationship between order volumes and forecasting accuracy whereas the influence of days to expiry and aggregated volumes showed lower R2 than was expected by formed hypotheses.
Download or read book Does money matter in predicting future events written by Sebastian Diemer and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).
Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour written by Kai Arzheimer and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2017-02-27 with total page 1103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world′s leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
Download or read book Information Management and Market Engineering written by Thomas Dreier and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research program Information Management and Market Engineering focuses on the analysis and the design of electronic markets. Taking a holistic view of the conceptualization and realization of solutions, the research integrates the disciplines business administration, economics, computer science, and law. Topics of interest range from the implementation, quality assurance, and further development of electronic markets to their integration into business processes, innovative business models, and legal frameworks.
Download or read book Best Practices for Online Procurement Auctions written by Parente, Diane H. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2007-12-31 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers a systematic approach to the examination of online procurement auctions. Growth in online auctions reinforces the need for understanding the factors important in auctions and the caveats that both researchers and practitioners need to know in order to effectively study and use the auction tool.
Download or read book A Companion to Applied Philosophy written by Kasper Lippert-Rasmussen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied philosophy has been a growing area of research for the last 40 years. Until now, however, almost all of this research has been centered around the field of ethics. A Companion to Applied Philosophy breaks new ground, demonstrating that all areasof philosophy, including epistemology, metaphysics, philosophy of science, and philosophy of mind, can be applied, and are relevant to questions of everyday life. This perennial topic in philosophy provides an overview of these various applied philosophy developments, highlighting similarities and differences between various areas of applied philosophy, and examining the very nature of this topic. It is an area to which many of the towering figures in the history of philosophy have contributed, and this timely Companion demonstrates how various historical contributions are actually contributions within applied philosophy, even if they are not traditionally seen as such. The Companion contains 42 essays covering major areas of philosophy; the articles themselves are all original contributions to the literature and represent the state of the art on this topic, as well as offering a map to the current debates.
Download or read book Open Innovation written by Abbie Griffin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-07 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A clear, practical guide to implementing Open Innovation for new product development Open Innovation: New Product Development Essentials from the PDMA is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of the Open Innovation method. Written by experts from the Product Development and Management Association, the book packages a collection of Open Innovation tools in a digestible and actionable format. Real-world case studies drawn from the authors' own successes and failures illustrate the concepts presented, providing accurate representation of the opportunities and challenges of Open Innovation implementation. Key tools are presented with a focus on immediate applications for business, allowing NPD professionals to easily discern where this cutting edge development method can push innovation forward. Open Innovation assumes that companies can and should use both internal and external ideas and paths to market, permeating the boundaries between firm and environment. Innovations transfer outward and inward through purchase, licensing, joint ventures, and spin-offs, allowing companies to expand beyond their own research and dramatically improve productivity through collaboration. PDMA Essentials provides practical guidance on exploiting the Open Innovation model to these ends, with clear guidance on all aspects of the new product development process. Topics include: Product platforming and idea competitions Customer immersion and interaction Collaborative product design and development Innovation networks, rewards, and incentives Many practitioners charged with innovation have only a vague understanding of the specific tools available for Open Innovation, and how they might be applied. As the marketplace shifts dramatically to keep pace with changing consumer behaviors, remaining relevant increasingly means ramping up innovation processes. PDMA Essentials provides the tools NPD practitioners need to implement a leading innovation method, and drive continued growth.
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of E Commerce Development Implementation and Management written by Lee, In and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-03-31 with total page 2440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The convenience of online shopping has driven consumers to turn to the internet to purchase everything from clothing to housewares and even groceries. The ubiquity of online retail stores and availability of hard-to-find products in the digital marketplace has been a catalyst for a heighted interest in research on the best methods, techniques, and strategies for remaining competitive in the era of e-commerce. The Encyclopedia of E-Commerce Development, Implementation, and Management is an authoritative reference source highlighting crucial topics relating to effective business models, managerial strategies, promotional initiatives, development methodologies, and end-user considerations in the online commerce sphere. Emphasizing emerging research on up-and-coming topics such as social commerce, the Internet of Things, online gaming, digital products, and mobile services, this multi-volume encyclopedia is an essential addition to the reference collection of both academic and corporate libraries and caters to the research needs of graduate-level students, researchers, IT developers, and business professionals. .
Download or read book Computer and Information Science written by Roger Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 7th IEEE/ACIS Conference and the 2nd IEEE/ACIS Workshop on e-Activity (IWEA 2008) featured researchers from around the world. The conference organizers selected 23 outstanding papers for this volume of Springer’s Studies in Computational Intelligence.
Download or read book Sports Betting written by Nicolae Sfetcu and published by Nicolae Sfetcu. This book was released on 2014-05-04 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sports betting is the general activity of predicting sports results by making a wager on the outcome of a sporting event. Aside from simple wagers--betting a friend that one's favorite baseball team will win its division, for instance, or buying a football "square" for the Super Bowl--sports betting is commonly done through a bookmaker. Bookmakers generally offer two types of wagers on the winner of a sporting event: a straight-up or money line bet, or a point spread wager. Moneylines and straight-up prices are used to set odds on sports such as soccer, baseball and hockey (the scoring nature of which renders point spreads impractical) as well as individual vs. individual matches, like boxing.
Download or read book Sports Forecasting written by Martin Spann and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article compares the forecast accuracy of different methods, namely prediction markets, tipsters and betting odds, and assesses the ability of prediction markets and tipsters to generate profits systematically in a betting market. We present the results of an empirical study that uses data from 678-837 games of three seasons of the German premier soccer league. Prediction markets and betting odds perform equally well in terms of forecasting accuracy, but both methods strongly outperform tipsters. A weighting-based combination of the forecasts of these methods leads to a slightly higher forecast accuracy, whereas a rule-based combination improves forecast accuracy substantially. However, none of the forecasts leads to systematic monetary gains in betting markets because of the high fees (25%) charged by the state-owned bookmaker in Germany. Lower fees (e.g., approximately 12% or 0%) would provide systematic profits if punters exploited the information from prediction markets and bet only on a selected number of games.
Download or read book Understanding Strategic Interaction written by Wulf Albers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic interaction occurs whenever it depends on others what one finally obtains: on markets, in firms, in politics etc. Game theorists analyse such interaction normatively, using numerous different methods. The rationalistic approach assumes perfect rationality whereas behavioral theories take into account cognitive limitations of human decision makers. In the animal kingdom one usually refers to evolutionary forces when explaining social interaction. The volume contains innovative contributions, surveys of previous work and two interviews which shed new light on these important topics of the research agenda. The contributions come from highly regarded researchers from all over the world who like to express in this way their intellectual inspiration by the Nobel-laureate Reinhard Selten.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of E Business Development and Management in the Global Economy written by Lee, In and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2010-02-28 with total page 1458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This research book is a repository for academicians, researchers, and industry practitioners to share and exchange their research ideas, theories, and practical experiences, discuss challenges and opportunities, and present tools and techniques in all aspects of e-business development and management in the digital economy"--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediciton Markets written by Thomas Seemann and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction markets are considered as a promising new forecasting method that has proven high prediction accuracy in many areas such as politics, sports, and business-related fields. The method is, however, far from being established or even understood. The specific circumstances and market designs that lead to efficient prediction markets need to be further identified. This paper tries to statistically analyze the impact of certain factors in market design. In particular, we analyze the impact of the initial endowments provided to new market participants on the liquidity of prediction markets. Market operators can provide either a cash endowment or a combination of a cash and stock endowment. By evaluating two play-money prediction markets run in parallel during the FIFA World Cup 2006, we show that the stock endowments significantly foster liquidity in the market. We recommend operators of online game markets as well as corporate prediction markets to provide stock and cash endowment to participants instead of pure cash endowments wherever feasible.
Download or read book Design Motivation and Frameworks in Game Based Learning written by Tan, Wee Hoe and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-07-13 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Game-based learning relates to the use of games to enhance the learning experience. Educators have been using games in the classroom for years, and when tied to the curriculum, commercial games are a powerful learning tool because they are highly engaging and relatable for students. Design, Motivation, and Frameworks in Game-Based Learning is a critical scholarly resource that examines the themes of game-based learning. These themes, through a multidisciplinary perspective, juxtapose successful practices. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as educational game design, gamification in education, and game content curation, this book is geared towards academicians, researchers, and students seeking current research on justifying the roles and importance of motivation in making games fun and engaging for game-based learning practice.
Download or read book Internet Based Customer Value Management written by Tymoteusz Doligalski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Customer value management is a managerial approach in which customers are perceived as the company’s asset, the value of which may be measured and increased through the organization of processes around customer relationships. This book deals with the topic of managing customer lifetime value on the internet, and more specifically on including the role of the internet in customer value proposition to enhance stakeholder and shareholder value. This book also discusses the possibilities of internet-based customer value management and presents a model describing the process leading to it. Its uniqueness lies in presenting a managerial approach to customer relationships rather than offering just another tool of e-marketing. The author’s approach is not limited by branches or sectors – differences in customer value management approaches are perceived through a prism of relationships between the company and its customers.
