Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Disconnect written by Riccardo Cristadoro and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Pass through Exchange Rate Volatility and Exchange Rate Disconnect written by Michael B. Devereux and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the hypothesis that high volatility of real and nominal exchange rates may be due to the fact that local currency pricing eliminates the pass-through from changes in exchange rates to consumer prices. Exchange rates may be highly volatile because in a sense they have little effect on macroeconomic variables. The paper shows the ingredients necessary to construct such an explanation for exchange rate volatility. In addition to the presence of local currency pricing, we need a) incomplete international financial markets, b) a structure of international pricing and product distribution such that wealth effects of exchange rate changes are minimized, and c) stochastic deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. Together, it is shown that these elements can produce exchange rate volatility that is much higher than shocks to economic fundamentals, and `disconnected' from the rest of the economy in the sense that the volatility of all other macroeconomic aggregates are of the same order as that of fundamentals.
Download or read book The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty written by Sandile Hlatshwayo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-09 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature has put forward a number of possible explanations, from multi-national supply-chains to muted exchange rate pass-through. This research explores the role of policy uncertainty in reducing the responsiveness of exports to relative price changes. We construct a novel “news chatter” measure of policy uncertainty and examine how it, paired with other supply-side constraints, can improve our understanding of export performance. We find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to the REER and has short and long-run level effects on export performance. Finally, we show that a measure of competitiveness that adjusts for uncertainty and supply-side constraints greatly outperforms the REER in tracking exports performance.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Pass through Exchange Rate Volatility and Exchange Rate Disconnect written by Michael B. Devereux and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Home Bias Exchange Rate Disconnect and Optimal Exchange Rate Policy written by Jian Wang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how much the central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to real exchange rate fluctuations. The paper first demonstrates in a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, that the home bias in consumption is important to duplicate the exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect documented in the data. When home bias is high, the shock to Uncovered Interest-rate Parity (UIP) can substantially drive up exchange rate volatility while leaving the volatility of real macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, almost untouched. The model predicts the volatility of the real exchange rate relative to that of GDP increases with the extent of home bias. This relation is strongly supported by the data. Then a second-order accurate solution method is employed to solve the model and compare the conditional welfare under different policy regimes. The results suggest that the monetary authority should not seek to vigorously stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. In particular, when the central bank does not take a strong stance against the inflation rate, exchange rate stabilization may induce substantial welfare loss. The model also suggests no welfare gain from the international monetary cooperation, which extends Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2002) findings to a DSGE model.
Download or read book Currency Derivatives and the Disconnection Between Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade written by Paolo Calío and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden Stop Prone Economies written by Enrique G. Mendoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dominant view in the empirical literature on exchange rates is that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange-rate-adjusted prices of tradable goods. This paper shows that this dominant view does not hold in Mexican data for the periods in which the country had managed exchange rate regimes. Variance analysis of a 30-year sample of monthly data shows that movements in the price of nontradables relative to tradables account for up to 70 percent of the variability of the real exchange rate during these periods. The paper proposes a model in which this stylized fact, and the Sudden Stops that accompanied the collapse of Mexico's managed exchange rates, could result from an endogenous amplification mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities and credit constraints. The key feature of this mechanism is Irving Fisher's debt-deflation process. Numerical evaluation suggests that the Fisherian deflation effects on consumption, the current account, and relative prices dwarf those induced by the standard balance sheet effect typical of the Sudden Stops literature.
Download or read book A Gravity View of Exchange Rate Disconnect written by Doireann Fitzgerald and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The empirical "gravity" equation is extremely successful in explaining bilateral trade. This paper shows how a multi-country model of specialization and costly trade (i.e. a microfounded gravity model) can be applied to explain empirical exchange rate puzzles. One such puzzle is the fact that nominal exchange rates are enormously volatile, but that this volatility does not appear to affect inflation. The gravity model is very successful in explaining this puzzle. In a sample of 25 OECD countries in the post-Bretton Woods period, the gravity prediction of inflation substantially outperforms the purchasing power parity prediction. The gravity prediction matches the volatility of actual inflation, and tracks its path closely. The superior performance of the gravity prediction is explained primarily by the fact that it takes account of the interaction of specialization with home bias. The stability of inflation in very open economies is explained in addition by the fact that the size of bilateral trade is negatively correlated with bilateral exchange rate volatility.
Download or read book The Effect of Exchange Rates on Chinese Trade written by Bin Qiu and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Previous studies investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on a country's exports have found little evidence that exchange rates matter. This "Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle" may stem from the fact that studies have mostly focused on aggregate data. Using HS6 digit product-level data for exports from China, we analyze the effect of real exchange rate as well as the volatility of real exchange rate of the Chinese RMB. By decomposing China's exports into its "extensive" and "intensive" margins, we find that real exchange rate volatility has a significantly impact on overall Chinese exports that operate via both the extensive and the intensive margins of trade. Real exchange rate volatility increases the uncertainty and deters small and new firms from entering the market or force them to exit the market via the extensive margin. As less firms operate in the export market, the export share of the existing firms increase via the intensive margin. The overall effect of this volatility is slightly positive. We find that these effects are dominant for the sub sample of countries that are the minor trading partners of China compared to its major trading partners. We find weak evidence that real exchange rate depreciation affects China's exports via the extensive margin. Keywords: Chinese Trade, Extensive Margin & Intensive Margin, Real Exchange Rate, Volatility"--Page [ii].
Download or read book Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long run Risk and Recursive Preferences written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond can be traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A long-run risk model with recursive-preferences in which all agents trade in complete global financial markets can generate realistic exchange rate volatility; however, I show that this entails huge international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferences model in which only a small fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, generates realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Disconnect Redux written by Ryan Chahrour and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-01-01 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A central proposition regarding effects of different mechanisms of fi-nancing public expenditures is that, under specific circumstances, it makes no difference to the level of aggregate demand if the government finances its outlays by debt or taxation. This so-called Ricardian equivalence states that, for a given expenditure path, substitution of debt for taxes does not affect private sector wealth and consumption. This paper provides a model illustrating the implications of Ricardian equivalence, surveys the litera-ture, considers effects of relaxing the basic assumptions, provides a frame-work to study implications of various extensions, and critically reviews recent empirical work on Ricardian equivalence.
Download or read book Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country's output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble those of volatility shocks. In a recursive preferences-complete markets framework, volatility and risk appetite shocks account for a noticeable share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption growth and the real exchange rate.
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity Deviations Macrofinancial Determinants written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2000 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
