Download or read book Re employment Probabilities Over the Business Cycle written by Guido Imbens and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for a flexible time dependence that can incorporate both seasonal and business cycle effects, we analyze the determinants of re-employment probabilities of young workers from 1978-1989. We find considerable changes in the chances of young workers finding jobs over the business cycle, however, the characteristics of those starting jobless spells do not vary much over time. Therefore, government programs that target specific demographic groups may change individuals' positions within the queue of job seekers but will probably have a more limited impact on the overall re-employment probability. Living in an area with high local unemployment reduces re-employment chances as does being in a long spell of non-employment. However, when we allow for an interaction between the length of time of a jobless spell and the local unemployment rate we find the interaction term is positive. In other words, while workers appear to be scarred by a long spell of unemployment, the damage seems to be reduced if they are unemployed in an area with high overall unemployment

Download or read book Re Employment Probabilities Over the Business Cycle written by Guido W. Imbens and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Part and Full Time Re Employment Probabilities Over Unemployment Duration and the Business Cycle written by Sammy G. Young and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers how the probabilities of transitioning from joblessness to part- versus full-time work change with the duration of joblessness and labor market conditions. Using 1996-2013 Survey of Income and Program Participation data, I estimate these transition probabilities using a Cox proportional hazard model. I find that as the duration of jobless spells increases, the monthly probability of transitioning to full-time employment declines faster than for part-time employment. Additionally, a one percentage point increase in the national unemployment rate is associated with a ten percent decrease in the probability of transitioning to full-time work but unrelated for part-time work. Consequently, the share of individuals transitioning from joblessness to part-time work increases with the duration of joblessness and with increasing labor market slack. Additional evidence suggests these increases are due to behavioral changes rather than unobserved heterogeneity. Finally, compared to their previous employment, individuals who transition from unemployment to part-time work also experience decreases in real hourly wages, private health-care coverage, and occupational skill level. These results provide motivation for considering non-wage aspects of job quality when studying re-employment from joblessness.

Download or read book Part and Full time Re employment Probabilities Over Unemployment Duration and the Business Cycle written by Samuel Young and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Re employment Probabilities and Returns to Matching written by Barbara Petrongolo and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Download or read book Optimal Unemployment Insurance written by Andreas Pollak and published by Mohr Siebeck. This book was released on 2007 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designing a good unemployment insurance scheme is a delicate matter. In a system with no or little insurance, households may be subject to a high income risk, whereas excessively generous unemployment insurance systems are known to lead to high unemployment rates and are costly both from a fiscal perspective and for society as a whole. Andreas Pollak investigates what an optimal unemployment insurance system would look like, i.e. a system that constitutes the best possible compromise between income security and incentives to work. Using theoretical economic models and complex numerical simulations, he studies the effects of benefit levels and payment durations on unemployment and welfare. As the models allow for considerable heterogeneity of households, including a history-dependent labor productivity, it is possible to analyze how certain policies affect individuals in a specific age, wealth or skill group. The most important aspect of an unemployment insurance system turns out to be the benefits paid to the long-term unemployed. If this parameter is chosen too high, a large number of households may get caught in a long spell of unemployment with little chance of finding work again. Based on the predictions in these models, the so-called "Hartz IV" labor market reform recently adopted in Germany should have highly favorable effects on the unemployment rates and welfare in the long run.

Download or read book Unemployment Duration Over the Business Cycle written by Micahel Rosholm and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Re Employment Probabilities and Return to Matching written by B. Petrongolo and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth written by Eran B. Hoffmann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-16 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how the distribution of earnings growth evolves over the business cycle in Italy. We distinguish between two sources of annual earnings growth: changes in employment time (number of weeks of employment within a year) and changes in weekly earnings. Changes in employment time generate the tails of the earnings growth distribution, and account for the increased dispersion and negative skewness in the distribution of earnings growth in recessions. In contrast, the cross-sectional distribution of weekly earnings growth is symmetric and stable over the cycle. Thus, models that rely on cyclical idiosyncratic risk, should separately account for the employment margin in their earnings process to avoid erroneous conclusions. We propose such a process, based on the combination of simple employment and wage processes with few parameters, and show that it captures the procyclical skewness in changes in earnings growth and other important features of its distribution.

Download or read book Individuals Unemployment Durations Over the Business Cycle written by Adriaan Kalwij and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book RE EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES AND WAGE OFFER FUNCTION FOR RUSSIAN LABOR MARKET written by NATALIA V. SMIRNOVA and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies written by Gabriele Ciminelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1990s. This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation in a sample of 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2015, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms to employment protection legislation for regular contracts. We apply the local projection method to estimate the dynamic response of the labor share to our reform events at both the country and the country-industry levels. For the latter, we employ a differences-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—namely that job protection deregulation should have larger negative effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to adjust the workforce, and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find a statistically significant, economically large and robust negative effect of deregulation on the labor share. In particular, illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that job protection deregulation may have contributed about 15 percent to the average labor share decline in advanced economies. Together with existing evidence regarding the macroeconomic gains from job protection and other labor market reforms, our results also point to the need for policymakers to address efficiency-equity trade-offs when designing such reforms.

Download or read book Preparing Youth for the 21st Century The Transition from Education to the Labour Market Proceedings of the Washington D C Conference 23 24 February 1999 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 1999-09-02 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication points the way to future initiatives to improve youth labour market and educational outcomes as identified by policy-makers and experts of OECD countries brought together at the Washington Conference "Preparing Youth for the 21st Century."

Download or read book Labor Statistics Measurement Issues written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rapidly changing technology, the globalization of markets, and the declining role of unions are just some of the factors that have led to dramatic changes in working conditions in the United States. Little attention has been paid to the difficult measurement problems underlying analysis of the labor market. Labor Statistics Measurement Issues helps to fill this gap by exploring key theoretical and practical issues in the measurement of employment, wages, and workplace practices. Some of the chapters in this volume explore the conceptual issues of what is needed, what is known, or what can be learned from existing data, and what needs have not been met by available data sources. Others make innovative uses of existing data to analyze these topics. Also included are papers examining how answers to important questions are affected by alternative measures used and how these can be reconciled. This important and useful book will find a large audience among labor economists and consumers of labor statistics.

Download or read book An Econometric Analysis of Individual Unemployment Duration in West Germany written by Eckhard Wurzel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In contemporary labor economics increasing attention is paid to the fact that unemployment is not only a stock but also a flow phenomenon. The present micro-econometric study analyses the impact of important socio-economic characteristics on unemployment duration in West Germany. Based on a search theoretic framework unemployment duration is considered as a stochastic process whose evolution is influenced by economicand demographic variables like unemployment benefits, expected wage offers, training and age. This is modeled by application of the concept of the hazard rate which denotes the conditional exit rate from unemployment over time given elapsed unemployment duration. Contrasting more traditional models a semi-parametric approachis chosen which reduces the danger of mis-specification of the stochastic duration process. This procedure also is particularly suitable for the analysis of grouped observations on unemployment duration typically generated by longitudinal data sets as the German "Socio-Economic Panel" which is utilized for this study. Besides deriving a set of empirical results on unemployment duration in West Germanymethodological issues of duration analysis are considered with particular attention paid to the impact of the sample design. Also, important outcomes from search theory and findings from other hazard rate analysesare surveyed.

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.