Download or read book Rational Speculative Bubbles and Duration Dependence in Exchange Rates written by Benjamas Jirasakuldech and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the exchange rates of the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Danish krone, the Japanese yen and the South African rand against the US dollar. The unit root test shows that the exchange rates and fundamental variables - money supply, income and interest rates - are integrated of order one, indicating no rational speculative bubbles. Further, the cointegration test indicates evidence of a long-run relationship between the exchange rate series and the fundamental variables, corroborating that no speculative bubble is present. The results of the non-parametric duration dependence test suggest that rational expectations bubbles do not affect these exchange rates.

Download or read book Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent theory of exchange rate dynamics within a target zone holds that exchange rates under a currency bard are less responsive to fundamental shocks than exchange rates under a free float, provided that the intervention rules of the Central Bank(s) are common knowledge. These results are derived after having assumed a priori that excess volatility due to rational bubbles does not occur in the foreign exchange market. In this paper we consider instead a setup in which the existence of speculative behavior is a datum the Central Bank has to deal with. We show that the defense of the target zone in the presence of bubbles is viable if the Central Bank accommodates speculative attacks when the latter are consistent with the survival of the target zone itself and expectations are self-fulfilling. These results hold for a large class of exogenous and fundamental-dependent bubble processes. We show that the instantaneous volatility of exchange rates within a bard is not necessarily less than the volatility under free float and analyze the implications for interest rate differential dynamics.

Download or read book Speculation And The Dollar written by Laurence Krause and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I began serious consideration of the issues and subject matter that comprise this book as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In need of a dissertation topic and vaguely curious about international monetary economics, I decided to sit in on Leonard Rapping's undergraduate course on international finance. Needless to say, I was soon hooked. Within several months I was teaching my own course on international money and beginning to write an outline of what would become my doctoral dissertation on foreign exchange speculation. Once completed the dissertation thesis became this basis for this book.

Download or read book Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.

Download or read book Bursting the Bubble Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.

Download or read book Duration Dependence Test of Rational Speculative Bubbles written by Ling Ling Dou and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles in Foreign Exchange Rates written by Laura Tao and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Stock Market Bubbles Volatility and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.

Download or read book Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone Presented at the Second International Macroeconomics Programme Meeting Madrid Spain 7nd and 8nd June 1991 written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Rational Speculative Bubbles in the Frontier Emerging Stock Markets written by M. Kabir Hassan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend the rational speculative bubbles literature to the frontier emerging stock markets. For this purpose, this paper employs fractional integration tests and duration dependence tests based on the ARFIMA models and nonparametric smoothed hazard functions. Unlike traditional bubble tests, fractional integration tests and duration dependence tests do not show strong evidence of rational speculative bubbles in the frontier emerging stock markets.

Download or read book Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in Reits written by Benjamas Jirasakuldech and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study tests for the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Equity REIT industry. We analyze REIT prices using a vector of macroeconomic fundamentals. Using the unit root test and cointegration procedures, we find no evidence of rational bubbles in the REIT market. Tests for duration dependence in the returns series show no evidence of negative duration dependence, suggesting that REIT markets are not affected by rational bubbles. Applying the same tests, we find no evidence of rational speculative bubbles in the Russell 2000 index, a proxy for small-cap stocks.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Download or read book Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money written by and published by Ludwig von Mises Institute. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.

Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.