Download or read book Rational Expectations Models with a Continuum of Convergent Solutions written by Michael Mussa and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines five examples of rational expectations models with a continuum of convergent solutions and demonstrates serious difficulties in the economic interpretation of these solutions. The five examples are (1) a model of optimal capital accumulation with a negative rate of time preference, (2) Taylor's (1977) linear rational expectations model of macroeconomic equilibrium; (3) Calvo's (1984) model of contract setting and price dynamics; (4) Obstfeld's (1984) equilibrium model of monetary dynamics with individual optimizing agents; and (5) Calvo's (1978) life-cycle model of savings and asset valuation. In every case, when these models yield a continuum of convergent infinite horizon solutions, these solutions fail to exhibit economically appropriate, forward looking dependence of the endogenous variables on the paths of the exogenous forcing variab1es--a difficulty that does not arise under the circumstances where these models yield unique convergent infinite horizon solutions. Further, the three models that have natural finite horizon versions, either lack finite horizon solutions or have solutions that do not converge to any of the infinite horizon solutions. Again, this difficulty arises only under the circumstances where these models have a continuum of infinite horizon solutions.
Download or read book Nominations of H Robert Heller and Michael L Mussa written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Keynesian Recovery and Other Essays written by Peter Howitt and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together Howitt's key contributions to the development of macroeconomic theory
Download or read book Exchange rate Dynamics and Optimal Asset Accumulation Revisited written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has recently been observed that when equations of motion for state variables are nonautonomous, optimal control problems involving Uzawa's endogenous rate of time preference cannot be solved using the change-of-variables method common in the literature. Instead, the problem must be solved by explicitly adding an additional state variable that measures the motion of time preference over time. This note reassesses earlier work of my own on exchange rate dynamics, which was based on a change-of- variables solution procedure. When the correct two-state-variable solution procedure is used, the model's qualitative predictions are unchanged. In addition, the analysis yields an intuitive interpretation of the extra co-state variable that arises in solving the individual's maximization problem.
Download or read book Publications written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small sample properties of parameter estimates and test statistics in the vector autoregressive dividend ratio model (Campbell and Shiller [1988 a,b]) are derived by stochastic simulation. The data generating processes are co integrated vector autoregressive models, estimated subject to restrictions implied by the dividend ratio model, or altered to show a unit root.
Download or read book Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data with an Example from Local Public Finance written by Douglas Holtz-Eakin and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis written by Robert J. Shiller and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Power functions of tests of the random walk hypothesis versus stationary first order autoregressive alternatives are tabulated for samples of fixed span but various frequencies of observation.
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset Pricing Theories written by Michael Rothschild and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article compares two leading models of asset pricing: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT): I argue that while the APT is compatible with the data available for testing theories of asset pricing, the CAPM is not. In reaching this conclusion emphasis is placed on the distinction between the unconditional (relatively incomplete) information which econometricians must use to estimate asset pricing models and the conditional (complete) information which investors use in making the portfolio decisions which determine asset prices. Empirical work to date suggests that it is unlikely that the APT will produce a simple equation which explains differences in risk premium well with a few parameters. If the CAPM were correct, it would provide such an equation.
Download or read book List of Recent Periodical Articles written by Joint Bank-Fund Library and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 838 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book From Catastrophe to Chaos A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities written by J. Barkley Rosser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities presents and unusual perspective on economics and economic analysis. Current economic theory largely depends upon assuming that the world is fundamentally continuous. However, an increasing amount of economic research has been done using approaches that allow for discontinuities such as catastrophe theory, chaos theory, synergetics, and fractal geometry. The spread of such approaches across a variety of disciplines of thought has constituted a virtual intellectual revolution in recent years. This book reviews the applications of these approaches in various subdisciplines of economics and draws upon past economic thinkers to develop an integrated view of economics as a whole from the perspective of inherent discontinuity.
Download or read book Error Components in Grouped Data written by William T. Dickens and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When estimating linear models using grouped data researchers typically weight each observation by the group size. Under the assumption that the regression errors for the underlying micro data have expected values of zero, are independent and are homoscedastic, this procedure produces best linear unbiased estimates. This note argues that for most applications in economics the assumption that errors are independent within groups is inappropriate. Since grouping is commonly done on the basis of common observed characteristics, it is inappropriate to assume that there are no unobserved characteristics in common. If group members have unobserved characteristics in common, individual errors will be correlated. If errors are correlated within groups and group sizes are large then heteroscedasticity may be relatively unimportant and weighting by group size may exacerbate heteroscedasticity rather than eliminate it. Two examples presented here suggest that this may be the effect of weighting in most non-experimental applications. In many situations unweighted ordinary least squares may be a preferred alternative. For those cases where it is not, a maximum likelihood and an asymptotically efficient two-step generalized least squares estimator are proposed. An extension of the two-step estimator for grouped binary data is also presented.
Download or read book Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling written by Timothy J. Kehoe and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-01-17 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2005 volume brings together twelve papers by many of the most prominent applied general equilibrium modelers honoring Herbert Scarf, the father of equilibrium computation in economics. It deals with developments in applied general equilibrium, a field which has broadened greatly since the 1980s. The contributors discuss some traditional as well as some modern topics in the field, including non-convexities in economy-wide models, tax policy, developmental modeling and energy modeling. The book also covers a range of distinct approaches, conceptual issues and computational algorithms, such as calibration and areas of application such as macroeconomics of real business cycles and finance. An introductory chapter written by the editors maps out issues and scenarios for the future evolution of applied general equilibrium.
Download or read book AI and Macroeconomic Modeling Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC Model written by Tohid Atashbar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-24 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study seeks to construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator. We use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model. We set up two learning scenarios, one of which is deterministic without the technological shock and the other is stochastic. The objective of the deterministic environment is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario. We demonstrate that in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value. We also present cases of unstable learning behaviours. This AI-macro model may be enhanced in future research by adding additional variables or sectors to the model or by incorporating different DRL algorithms.
Download or read book Journal of Economic Theory written by Pennsylvania and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Information and Learning in Markets written by Xavier Vives and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-25 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This graduate-level textbook analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of specific market arrangements--or microstructure--on the aggregation process and overall performance of financial markets. Xavier Vives bridges the gap between the two primary views of markets--informational efficiency and herding--and uses a coherent game-theoretic framework to bring together the latest results from the rational expectations and herding literatures. Vives emphasizes the consequences of market interaction and social learning for informational and economic efficiency. He looks closely at information aggregation mechanisms, progressing from simple to complex environments: from static to dynamic models; from competitive to strategic agents; and from simple market strategies such as noncontingent orders or quantities to complex ones like price contingent orders or demand schedules. Vives finds that contending theories like informational efficiency and herding build on the same principles of Bayesian decision making and that "irrational" agents are not needed to explain herding behavior, booms, and crashes. As this book shows, the microstructure of a market is the crucial factor in the informational efficiency of prices. Provides the most complete analysis of the ways markets aggregate information Bridges the gap between the rational expectations and herding literatures Includes exercises with solutions Serves both as a graduate textbook and a resource for researchers, including financial analysts
