Download or read book Rating Through the Cycle written by Mr.John Kiff and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit rating agencies face a difficult trade-off between delivering both accurate and stable ratings. In particular, its users have consistently expressed a preference for rating stability, driven by the transactions costs induced by trading when ratings change frequently. Rating agencies generally assign ratings on a through-the-cycle basis whereas banks' internal valuations are often based on a point-in-time performance, that is they are related to the current value of the rated entity's or instrument's underlying assets. This paper compares the two approaches and assesses their impact on rating stability and accuracy. We find that while through-the-cycle ratings are initially more stable, they are prone to rating cliff effects and also suffer from inferior performance in predicting future defaults. This is because they are typically smooth and delay rating changes. Using a through-the-crisis methodology that uses a more stringent stress test goes halfway toward mitigating cliff effects, but is still prone to discretionary rating change delays.
Download or read book Rating Through The Cycle written by John Kiff and published by . This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit rating agencies face a difficult trade-off between delivering both accurate and stable ratings. In particular, its users have consistently expressed a preference for rating stability, driven by the transactions costs induced by trading when ratings change frequently. Rating agencies generally assign ratings on a through-the-cycle basis whereas banks' internal valuations are often based on a point-in-time performance, that is they are related to the current value of the rated entity's or instrument's underlying assets. This paper compares the two approaches and assesses their impact on rating stability and accuracy. We find that while through-the-cycle ratings are initially more stable, they are prone to rating cliff effects and also suffer from inferior performance in predicting future defaults. This is because they are typically smooth and delay rating changes. Using a through-the-crisis methodology that uses a more stringent stress test goes halfway toward mitigating cliff effects, but is still prone to discretionary rating change delays.
Download or read book Rating Through the Cycle written by Michael Kisser and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit rating agencies (CRAs) can achieve rating stability by employing a forward-looking through-the-cycle (TTC) methodology or delaying rating changes. Using a simple credit risk model, we explore the tradeoff between rating accuracy and stability by disentangling the long-term focus of TTC ratings from the attempt to delay rating changes. Average TTC ratings are initially more accurate and always more stable than point-in-time ratings (PIT), which are subject to frequent rating changes and severe rating downgrades. Finally, regression analysis suggests that ex-post rating volatility improves accuracy only if cross-sectional differences in ratings reflect an ex-ante assessment of risk.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.
Download or read book An Anatomy of Rating Through the Cycle written by Gunter Löffler and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an asset-based model of default, I derive rating characteristics if ratings are meant to look 'through the cycle' as opposed to being based on the borrowers' current condition. The through-the-cycle method, which is employed by most rating agencies, requires a separation of permanent and cyclical components of default risk. In a time series setting, this can be done through the Kalman filter. The analysis shows that many empirical irregularities of agency ratings could be the consequence of such a rating method. The stability of through-the-cycle ratings is higher than that of their current-condition counterparts, and their correlation with actual default probabilities is relatively low. Though not predictable in the usual sense, rating changes exhibit several properties which call for a reconsideration of the existing evidence.
Download or read book The Effects of Rating Through the Cycle on Rating Stability Rating Timeliness and Default Prediction Performance written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role and performance of credit rating agencies are currently under debate. Several surveys conducted in the United States reveal that most investors believe that rating agencies are too slow in adjusting their ratings to changes in corporate creditworthiness. Well known is that agenciesachieve rating stability by their through-the-cycle methodology. This study aims to provide quantitative insight in this methodology and to quantify the effects of this methodology on rating stability, rating timeliness and default prediction performance, from an investor's point-in-timeperspective. We believe that our results can guide the search for an optimal balance between rating stability, rating timeliness and default prediction performance.
Download or read book Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis written by Christopher Grafton and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the best classical methods of technical analysis brought up to date This book offers a modern treatment of Hurst's original system of market cycle analysis. It will teach you how to get to the point where you can isolate cycles in any freely-traded financial instrument and make an assessment of their likely future course. Although Hurst's methodology can seem outwardly complex, the logic underpinning it is straightforward. With practice the skill needed to conduct a full cycle analysis quickly and effectively will become second nature. The rewards for becoming adept are high conviction trades, tight risk management and mastery of a largely non-correlated system of analysis. In this extensive step-by-step guide you will find a full description of the principal tools and techniques taught by Hurst as well as over 120 colour charts, together with tables and diagrams. The Updata and TradeStation code for all of the indicators shown is also included.
Download or read book Cycles Growth and the Great Recession written by Annalisa Cristini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-11-13 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cycles, Growth and the Great Recession is a collection of papers that assess the nature and role of the business cycle in contemporary economies. These assessments are made in the context of the financial market instability that distinguishes the Great Recession from previous post-war slowdowns. Theorists and applied scholars in the fields of economics and mathematical economics discuss various approaches to understanding cycles and growth, and present mathematical and applied macro models to show how uncertainty shapes cycles by affecting the economic agent choice. Also included is an empirical section that investigates how the Great Recession affected households’ housing wealth, labour productivity and migration decisions. This book aims to: Propose a novel understanding of the business cycle by comparing the approaches of various scholars, starting from Hyman Minsky and Piero Ferri. Show that uncertainty is a main feature of the business cycle that affects decision-making and economic behaviour in general. Explain with mathematical models how the behaviour of economic agents can lead to cyclical paths for modern developed economies. Augment theory with empirical analysis of some central issues related to the Great Recession. This book comprises an original view of such widely discussed subjects as business cycles, uncertainty, economic growth and the Great Recession, constructed around theory, models and applications.
Download or read book Issues in Finance written by Stuart Sayer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Finance: Credit, Crises and Policies presents a collection of surveys on key issues surrounding the relationship between credit, finance, and the macro-economy that are linked to the recent global financial crisis. Presents a timely collection of surveys that shed light on the recent financial crisis Offers insights for economists in government, business, and finance Shows how the mainstream economics literature was not blind to the potential problems of the financial framework and its interplay with the macro-economy
Download or read book Advances in Applied Economic Research written by Nicholas Tsounis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-07 with total page 869 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings volume aims to provide new research methods, theories and applications from various areas of applied economic research. Featuring papers from the 2016 International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE) organized by the University of Nicosia and the Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences, this volume presents cutting edge research from all areas of economic science that use applied econometrics as the method of analysis. It also features country specific studies with specific economic policy analyses and proposals. Applied economics is a rapidly growing field of economics that combines economic theory with econometrics to analyse economic problems of the real world usually with economic policy interest. ICOAE is an annual conference started in 2008 with the aim to bring together economists from different fields of applied economic research in order to share methods and ideas. The goal of the conference and the enclosed papers is to allow for an exchange of experiences with different applied econometric methods and to promote joint initiatives among well-established fields likemacro- and microeconomics, international economics, finance, agricultural economics, health economics, education economics, international trade theory and management and marketing strategies. Featuring global contributions, this book will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals and policy makers in the field of applied economics and econometrics.
Download or read book The Great Super Cycle written by David Skarica and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-15 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States has a problem – a big problem. Due to costs associated with the massive bailout of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail," on-going armed conflicts, and a move towards socialism, another even bigger bubble is about to burst – the debt bubble. The Great Super Cycle: Profit from the Coming Inflation Tidal Wave and Dollar Devaluation is an intriguing look at the relationship between Washington and Wall Street; the history of political shifts in power and how those shifts influenced the global economy; and, the ways investors can profit as economies move away from U.S. dollar and debt. The book: Discusses how a socialist America will result in the U.S. economy becoming far less competitive, while causing funds to move offshore Details how investors can profit by investing in gold, oil, and Asian markets Explains major cyclical movements from the mega cycle of world power to stock market cycles which last 10-20 years. As the United States begins to deal with its massive debt bubble, The Great Super Cycle just might prove the most powerful tool an investor has for making money in the turbulent years to come.
Download or read book Corporate Bond Rating Drift written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Effects of Rating Through Cycle on Rating Stability Rating Timeliness and Default Predection Performance written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role and performance of credit rating agencies are currently under debate. Several surveys conducted in the United States reveal that most investors believe that rating agencies are too slow in adjusting their ratings to changes in corporate creditworthiness. Well known is that agencies achieve rating stability by their through-the-cycle methodology. This study aims to provide quantitative insight in this methodology and to quantify the effects of this methodology on rating stability, rating timeliness and default prediction performance, from an investor's point-in-time perspective. We believe that our results can guide the search for an optimal balance between rating stability, rating timeliness and default prediction performance.
Download or read book International Capital Markets written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-09-24 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following a review and assessment of recent developments in capital market and banking systems, this year's International Capital Markets report reviews and assesses recent developments in mature and emerging financial markets and continues the analysis of key issues affecting global financial markets. It examines the systemic implications of the continued rapid development of the global over-the-counter derivatives markets and the expansion of foreign-owned banks into emerging markets. The report also analyzes market participants' assessments of the proposals for private sector involvement in the prevention and resolution crises.
Download or read book The Worth of Water written by Gary White and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2022-03-29 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the founders of nonprofits Water.org & WaterEquity Gary White and Matt Damon, the incredible true story of two unlikely allies on a mission to end the global water crisis for good On any given morning, you might wake up and shower with water, make your coffee with water, flush your toilet with water—and think nothing of it. But around the world, more than three-quarters of a billion people can’t do any of that—because they have no clean water source near their homes. And 1.7 billion don’t have access to a toilet. This crisis affects a third of the people on the planet. It keeps kids out of school and women out of work. It traps people in extreme poverty. It spreads disease. It’s also solvable. That conviction is what brought together movie actor Matt Damon and water expert and engineer Gary White. They spent years getting the answer wrong, then halfway right, then almost right. Over time, they and their organization, Water.org, have found an approach that works. Working with partners across East Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, they’ve helped over 40 million people access water and/or sanitation. In The Worth of Water, Gary and Matt take us along on the journey—telling stories as they uncover insights, try out new ideas, and travel between the communities they serve and the halls of power where decisions get made. With humor and humility, they illuminate the challenges of launching a brand-new model with extremely high stakes: better health and greater prosperity for people allover the world. The Worth of Water invites us to become a part of this effort—to match hope with resources, to empower families and communities, and to end the global water crisis for good. All the authors’ proceeds from the sale of this book will be donated to Water.org.
Download or read book Standard Poor s Corporate Ratings Criteria written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit written by Adam B. Ashcraft and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-03 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions that arise. Discusses the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down. Continues with a complete picture of the subprime borrower and the subprime loan, discussing both predatory borrowing and predatory lending. Presents the key structural features of a typical subprime securitization, documents how rating agencies assign credit ratings to mortgage-backed securities, and outlines how these agencies monitor the performance of mortgage pools over time. The authors draw upon the example of a mortgage pool securitized by New Century Financial during 2006. Illustrations.