Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Download or read book Randomness written by Deborah J. Bennett and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the ancients' first readings of the innards of birds to your neighbor's last bout with the state lottery, humankind has put itself into the hands of chance. Today life itself may be at stake when probability comes into play--in the chance of a false negative in a medical test, in the reliability of DNA findings as legal evidence, or in the likelihood of passing on a deadly congenital disease--yet as few people as ever understand the odds. This book is aimed at the trouble with trying to learn about probability. A story of the misconceptions and difficulties civilization overcame in progressing toward probabilistic thinking, Randomness is also a skillful account of what makes the science of probability so daunting in our own day. To acquire a (correct) intuition of chance is not easy to begin with, and moving from an intuitive sense to a formal notion of probability presents further problems. Author Deborah Bennett traces the path this process takes in an individual trying to come to grips with concepts of uncertainty and fairness, and also charts the parallel path by which societies have developed ideas about chance. Why, from ancient to modern times, have people resorted to chance in making decisions? Is a decision made by random choice fair? What role has gambling played in our understanding of chance? Why do some individuals and societies refuse to accept randomness at all? If understanding randomness is so important to probabilistic thinking, why do the experts disagree about what it really is? And why are our intuitions about chance almost always dead wrong? Anyone who has puzzled over a probability conundrum is struck by the paradoxes and counterintuitive results that occur at a relatively simple level. Why this should be, and how it has been the case through the ages, for bumblers and brilliant mathematicians alike, is the entertaining and enlightening lesson of Randomness.

Download or read book Exploring RANDOMNESS written by Gregory J. Chaitin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This essential companion to Chaitin's successful books The Unknowable and The Limits of Mathematics, presents the technical core of his theory of program-size complexity. The two previous volumes are more concerned with applications to meta-mathematics. LISP is used to present the key algorithms and to enable computer users to interact with the authors proofs and discover for themselves how they work. The LISP code for this book is available at the author's Web site together with a Java applet LISP interpreter. "No one has looked deeper and farther into the abyss of randomness and its role in mathematics than Greg Chaitin. This book tells you everything hes seen. Don miss it." John Casti, Santa Fe Institute, Author of Goedel: A Life of Logic.'

Download or read book Randomness in Evolution written by John Tyler Bonner and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-03-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Tyler Bonner here challenges a central tenet of evolutionary biology.

Download or read book The Great Mental Models Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Download or read book The Drunkard s Walk written by Leonard Mlodinow and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2008-05-13 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, an intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives that will intrigue, awe, and inspire. “Mlodinow writes in a breezy style, interspersing probabilistic mind-benders with portraits of theorists.... The result is a readable crash course in randomness.” —The New York Times Book Review With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Download or read book Algorithmic Randomness written by Johanna N. Y. Franklin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-07 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last two decades have seen a wave of exciting new developments in the theory of algorithmic randomness and its applications to other areas of mathematics. This volume surveys much of the recent work that has not been included in published volumes until now. It contains a range of articles on algorithmic randomness and its interactions with closely related topics such as computability theory and computational complexity, as well as wider applications in areas of mathematics including analysis, probability, and ergodic theory. In addition to being an indispensable reference for researchers in algorithmic randomness, the unified view of the theory presented here makes this an excellent entry point for graduate students and other newcomers to the field.

Download or read book Information and Randomness written by Cristian Calude and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Algorithmic information theory (AIT) is the result of putting Shannon's information theory and Turing's computability theory into a cocktail shaker and shaking vigorously", says G.J. Chaitin, one of the fathers of this theory of complexity and randomness, which is also known as Kolmogorov complexity. It is relevant for logic (new light is shed on Gödel's incompleteness results), physics (chaotic motion), biology (how likely is life to appear and evolve?), and metaphysics (how ordered is the universe?). This book, benefiting from the author's research and teaching experience in Algorithmic Information Theory (AIT), should help to make the detailed mathematical techniques of AIT accessible to a much wider audience.

Download or read book Computational Analysis of Randomness in Structural Mechanics written by Christian Bucher and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-03-30 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proper treatment of structural behavior under severe loading - such as the performance of a high-rise building during an earthquake - relies heavily on the use of probability-based analysis and decision-making tools. Proper application of these tools is significantly enhanced by a thorough understanding of the underlying theoretical and computation

Download or read book Randomness Undecidability in Physics written by Karl Svozil and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1993 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent findings in the computer sciences, discrete mathematics, formal logics and metamathematics have opened up a royal road for the investigation of undecidability and randomness in physics. A translation of these formal concepts yields a fresh look into diverse features of physical modelling such as quantum complementarity and the measurement problem, but also stipulates questions related to the necessity of the assumption of continua.Conversely, any computer may be perceived as a physical system: not only in the immediate sense of the physical properties of its hardware. Computers are a medium to virtual realities. The foreseeable importance of such virtual realities stimulates the investigation of an ?inner description?, a ?virtual physics? of these universes of computation. Indeed, one may consider our own universe as just one particular realisation of an enormous number of virtual realities, most of them awaiting discovery.One motive of this book is the recognition that what is often referred to as ?randomness? in physics might actually be a signature of undecidability for systems whose evolution is computable on a step-by-step basis. To give a flavour of the type of questions envisaged: Consider an arbitrary algorithmic system which is computable on a step-by-step basis. Then it is in general impossible to specify a second algorithmic procedure, including itself, which, by experimental input-output analysis, is capable of finding the deterministic law of the first system. But even if such a law is specified beforehand, it is in general impossible to predict the system behaviour in the ?distant future?. In other words: no ?speedup? or ?computational shortcut? is available. In this approach, classical paradoxes can be formally translated into no-go theorems concerning intrinsic physical perception.It is suggested that complementarity can be modelled by experiments on finite automata, where measurements of one observable of the automaton destroys the possibility to measure another observable of the same automaton and it vice versa.Besides undecidability, a great part of the book is dedicated to a formal definition of randomness and entropy measures based on algorithmic information theory.

Download or read book Computability and Randomness written by André Nies and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2012-03-29 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interplay between computability and randomness has been an active area of research in recent years, reflected by ample funding in the USA, numerous workshops, and publications on the subject. The complexity and the randomness aspect of a set of natural numbers are closely related. Traditionally, computability theory is concerned with the complexity aspect. However, computability theoretic tools can also be used to introduce mathematical counterparts for the intuitive notion of randomness of a set. Recent research shows that, conversely, concepts and methods originating from randomness enrich computability theory. The book covers topics such as lowness and highness properties, Kolmogorov complexity, betting strategies and higher computability. Both the basics and recent research results are desribed, providing a very readable introduction to the exciting interface of computability and randomness for graduates and researchers in computability theory, theoretical computer science, and measure theory.

Download or read book Algorithmic Randomness and Complexity written by Rodney G. Downey and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-29 with total page 883 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computability and complexity theory are two central areas of research in theoretical computer science. This book provides a systematic, technical development of "algorithmic randomness" and complexity for scientists from diverse fields.

Download or read book Genetics and Randomness written by Anatoly Ruvinsky and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes Randomness in Major Genetic Processes and EventsNo matter how far science advances, the proportion of what is knowable to what is random will remain unchanged, and attempts to ignore this critical threshold are futile at best. With the revolutionary explosion in genetic information discovery, it is crucially important to recognize the unde

Download or read book What Is Random written by Edward Beltrami and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this fascinating book, mathematician Ed Beltrami takes a close enough look at randomness to make it mysteriously disappear. The results of coin tosses, it turns out, are determined from the start, and only our incomplete knowledge makes them look random. "Random" sequences of numbers are more elusive, but Godels undecidability theorem informs us that we will never know. Those familiar with quantum indeterminacy assert that order is an illusion, and that the world is fundamentally random. Yet randomness is also an illusion. Perhaps order and randomness, like waves and particles, are only two sides of the same (tossed) coin.

Download or read book Randomness Through Computation written by Hector Zenil and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This review volume consists of an indispensable set of chapters written by leading scholars, scientists and researchers in the field of Randomness, including related subfields specially but not limited to the strong developed connections to the Computability and Recursion Theory. Highly respected, indeed renowned in their areas of specialization, many of these contributors are the founders of their fields. The scope of Randomness Through Computation is novel. Each contributor shares his personal views and anecdotes on the various reasons and motivations which led him to the study of the subject. They share their visions from their vantage and distinctive viewpoints. In summary, this is an opportunity to learn about the topic and its various angles from the leading thinkers.

Download or read book Probability and Randomness written by Andre? I?U?r?evich Khrennikov and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Creating a rigorous mathematical theory of randomness is far from being complete, even in the classical case. Interrelation of Classical and Quantum Randomness rectifies this and introduces mathematical formalisms of classical and quantum probability and randomness with brief discussion of their interrelation and interpretational and foundational issues. The book presents the essentials of classical approaches to randomness, enlightens their successes and problems, and then proceeds to essentials of quantum randomness. Its wide-ranging and comprehensive scope makes it suitable for researchers in mathematical physics, probability and statistics at any level"--

Download or read book God s Providence and Randomness in Nature written by Robert John Russell and published by Templeton Foundation Press. This book was released on 2019-02-11 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In October 2014, a group of mathematicians, physicists, ecologists, philosophers, and theologians gathered at a special conference in Berkeley, California, to present the results of a two-year research program dubbed “Project SATURN.” This program explored many rich avenues of thought at the intersection of modern science and Christian theology. Chief among them is the possibility that specific processes might be so complex that they do not have sufficient physical causes. Known as “ontological indeterminism,” this idea has profound implications for theology. Specifically, it allows God to be thought of as acting providentially within nature without violating the laws and processes of nature. Such a momentous insight could influence how we understand free will, natural evil, suffering in nature, and the relation between divine providence and human evolution. The essays collected here discussed these topics and were initially presented at the 2014 conference. Part I establishes the scientific basis for conceptualizing specific processes in the universe as inherently random and possibly indeterministic. Part II discusses the philosophical and theological issues that spring from this understanding. Together they represent the cutting edge of thought in the increasingly productive dialogue between science and theology. Short for the “Scientific and Theological Understandings of Randomness in Nature,” Project SATURN was created by the Center for Theology and the Natural Sciences, a Program of the Graduate Theological Union, Berkeley. It was funded with a grant administered by Calvin College and provided by the John Templeton Foundation.