Download or read book Quarterly Forecasting Model for India s Economic Growth written by Tara Iyer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real sector groups of variables include domestic aggregate demand indicators and foreign variables, while the monetary sector groups specify the underlying inflationary process in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) versus the wholesale price index given India's recent monetary policy regime switch to CPI inflation targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings include that capital flows to India and CPI inflation have high informational content for India's GDP growth. The results of this study provide suggestive evidence that quarterly BVAR models of Indian growth have high predictive ability.
Download or read book Forecasting Potential Impact of COVID 19 Outbreak on India s GDP Using ARIMA Model written by Imtinungsang Jamir and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought the world economy at standstill which brings huge challenges to major affected countries. The impact of this disease on economy is highly uncertain putting policymakers in difficult situation to formulate appropriate policy in a short time. India being the second most populous country in the world after China, there is no easy way to contain the virus from spreading. Early anticipation is that, this pandemic will give a major blow to nation's economy when the country is already experiencing continuous decline in GDP growth for the past few quarters. In order to better understand possible economic outcome, this paper attempts to model and forecast GDP growth rate of India for the next 11 quarters from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2022. Using quarterly GDP data, Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied to forecast short-term GDP in ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model. The prediction made in this paper demonstrates worrying economy for India that even with contained outbreak and several stimulus measures taken by the government, the pandemic could have a significant impact on Indian economy in the short-run with no signs of recovery. The result indicates that India will continue to experience significant decline of GDP growth till the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the forecast made in this study is only indicative rather than definitive.
Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Download or read book A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting written by Yoshihisa Inada and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-03-08 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume investigates the accuracy and dynamic performance of a high-frequency forecast model for the Japanese and United States economies based on the Current Quarter Model (CQM) or High Frequency Model (HFM) developed by the late Professor Emeritus Lawrence R. Klein. It also presents a survey of recent developments in high-frequency forecasts and gives an example application of the CQM model in forecasting Gross Regional Products (GRPs).
Download or read book The Making of National Economic Forecasts written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Growth Using an Artificial Neural Network Model written by Rudra Prakash Pradhan and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper employs Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast India's economic growth. Using the data set, during 1980-2005, it finds that ANN is an effective tool to forecast the economic growth. The ANN gives the evidence that there is possibility of extracting information hidden in the economic growth and predicting it into the future. It also works out the comparison between ANN model and Linear Regression Model (LRM) to forecast the economic growth. The results confirmed that ANN yields lower forecast errors in assessment to LRM. The evaluation of the proposed model is based on the estimation of the average behaviour of the Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error.
Download or read book Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India written by Bruno S. Sergi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-22 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.
Download or read book New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time written by Troy Matheson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Download or read book Nowcasting Economic Growth in India written by Tara Iyer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable means of nowcasting economic growth while accounting for mixed-frequency data, which is data released on different dates, and missing time series. The specified DFM, which includes six quarterly indicators and 12 higher-frequency monthly variables, is able to effectively nowcast growth in India. The variables in the framework are drawn from the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors in India and selected to represent aggregate economic activity. There are several interesting results in the study. A key finding is that rainfall has high predictive content for GDP growth in India, a novel result from the viewpoint of the existing nowcasting literature.
Download or read book Nowcasting India s Quarterly GDP Growth written by Rudrani Bhattacharya and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NAOMI written by Stephen Murchison and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Power of a Single Number written by Philipp Lepenies and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-26 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Widely used since the mid-twentieth century, GDP (gross domestic product) has become the world's most powerful statistical indicator of national development and progress. Practically all governments adhere to the idea that GDP growth is a primary economic target, and while criticism of this measure has grown, neither its champions nor its detractors deny its central importance in our political culture. In The Power of a Single Number, Philipp Lepenies recounts the lively history of GDP's political acceptance—and eventual dominance. Locating the origins of GDP measurements in Renaissance England, Lepenies explores the social and political factors that originally hindered its use. It was not until the early 1900s that an ingenuous lone-wolf economist revived and honed GDP's statistical approach. These ideas were then extended by John Maynard Keynes, and a more focused study of national income was born. American economists furthered this work by emphasizing GDP's ties to social well-being, setting the stage for its ascent. GDP finally achieved its singular status during World War II, assuming the importance it retains today. Lepenies's absorbing account helps us understand the personalities and popular events that propelled GDP to supremacy and clarifies current debates over the wisdom of the number's rule.
Download or read book Macroeconometric Models written by Władysław Welfe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-02-15 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Environmental Social and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia written by William A. Barnett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2021-11-08 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new volume of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics explores the latest economic and financial developments in Asia.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Download or read book Growth and Development Planning in India written by K. L. Datta and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-30 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate around growth has been an important feature of economic planning in India since Independence. This book deals with the wide range of issues related to the country's growth and development between 1951 and 2011, covering the 11 Five Year Plans formulated and implemented during this period, as well as in the decade after that. The author traces the changing nature of planning over time-from rigid state control on economic activities, to reliance on market-based planning in the time of economic reforms. He has dealt with the transition from growth measures in the 1970s, to the use of a mix of growth and redistribution in the 1980s, and the economic reforms and liberalization measures from 1991 onwards, and the inclusive growth we have seen in the twenty-first century. The central theme of the book is to analyse the role that planning played in maximizing the rate of economic growth and in improving the living standards of the people. Considering India's rapidly changing socio-economic environment, many of the issues around growth and development are contentious. The author discusses them here with academic rigour and an insider's insight, thus enabling a fair assessment.
