Download or read book Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures Returns written by Miguel Dorta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study develops a multi-period log-return quantile forecasting procedure to evaluate the performance of eleven nearby commodity futures contracts (NCFC) using a sample of 897 daily price observations and at-the-money (ATM) put and call implied volatilities of the corresponding prices for the period from 1/16/2008 to 7/29/2011. The statistical approach employs dynamic log-returns quantile regression models to forecast price densities using implied volatilities (IVs) and factors estimated through principal component analysis (PCA) from the IVs, pooled IVs and lagged returns. Extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses are conducted, including assessment of excess trading returns, and evaluations of several combinations of quantiles, model specifications, and NCFC's. The results suggest that the IV-PCA-factors, particularly pooled return-IV-PCA-factors, improve quantile forecasting power relative to models using only individual IV information. The ratio of the put-IV to the call-IV is also found to improve quantile forecasting performance of log returns. Improvements in quantile forecasting performance are found to be better in the tails of the distribution than in the center. Trading performance based on quantile forecasts from the models above generated significant excess returns. Finally, the fact that the single IV forecasts were outperformed by their quantile regression (QR) counterparts suggests that the conditional distribution of the log-returns is not normal.
Download or read book Financialization and De Financialization of Commodity Futures written by Robert J. Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the relationship between commodity futures and global stocks. For the first time, we examine the financialization of commodity futures by employing a quantile regression approach. From 2004-2013, we confirm a strong degree of dependence in energy commodities with moderate effects in metals and lesser magnitudes in agriculturals. During the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, our findings show a strengthening in the financialization of energy commodities while there were weaker effects in agriculturals and a decoupling or de-financialization in metal markets. With the recent closure of commodity trading units in Wall Street in 2013, the findings reveal the de-financialization of metals and agricultural markets from 2014-2017. Overall, our findings cast doubt on the diversification benefits of energy-dominated commodity indices after 2013. We argue the impact of financialization on commodity futures markets is more permanent than previously thought.
Download or read book OPEC News and Predictability of Energy Futures Returns and Volatility written by Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production announcements for energy futures (crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gasoline reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending (RBOB), Brent oil, London gas oil, natural gas and heating oil) market returns and volatilities.To examine the impact of OPEC news on energy futures market returns and volatilities, the authors use a conditional quantile regression methodology during the period from April 01, 2013 to June 30, 2017.From the empirical findings, the authors show a conditional dependence between energy futures returns and OPEC-based predictors; hence, the authors can find clear the significance of relationship in the process of financialization of the OPEC announcements and energy futures in the case of this paper. From the quantile-causality test, the authors find that the effect of OPEC news is important to energy futures. Specifically, OPEC announcements dates predict the quantiles of the conditional distribution of energy futures market returns.The authors confirm the presence of unidirectional nexus between OPEC news and energy commodities futures in the long term.
Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Futures Returns written by Massimo Guidolin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We test whether three well-known commodity-specific variables (basis, hedgingpressure, and momentum) may improve the predictive power for commodity futuresreturns of models otherwise based on macroeconomic factors. We compute recursive,out-of-sample forecasts for fifteen monthly commodity futures return series, whenestimation is based on a stepwise model selection approach under a probability-weightedregime-switching regression that identifies different volatility regimes.Comparisons with an AR(1) benchmark show that the inclusion of commodity-specificfactors does not improve the forecasting power. We perform a back-testing exercise of amean-variance investment strategy that exploits any predictability of the conditionalrisk premium of commodities, stocks, and bond returns, also taking into accounttransaction costs caused by portfolio rebalancing. The risk-adjusted performance of thisstrategy does not allow us to conclude that any forecasting approach outperforms theothers. However, there is evidence that investment strategies based on commodity-specificpredictors outperform the remaining strategies in the high-volatility state.
Download or read book Commodity Futures Forecast Returns and Not Prices written by Davidson Heath and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the forecastability of prices and returns in commodity futures markets. To examine the implications for models of commodity prices we derive a new canonical affine form that lends itself to model evaluation and comparison. Both regressions and model estimates imply that effectively all variation in the term structure of futures prices is due to time varying risk premiums and none to price forecasts. The model estimates further suggest that the economic quantity that links futures prices to storage -- the cost of carry -- is pinned down unambiguously by the data.
Download or read book Normal Backwardation Forecasting and the Returns to Commodity Futures Traders written by Charles Schut Rockwell and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices written by Trevor A. Reeve and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Economic Challenges written by Nesrin Özataç and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-08 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents current developments in the fields of banking and finance from an international perspective. Featuring contributions from the 6th International Conference on Banking and Finance Perspectives (ICBFP), this volume serves as a valuable forum for discussing current issues and trends in the banking and financial sectors, especially in light of the global economic challenges triggered by financial institutions. Using the latest theoretical models, new perspectives are brought to topics such as international monetary policy, Islamic finance, microfinance, fintech, and capital flight. Offering an opportunity to explore the challenges of a rapidly changing industry, this volume will be of interest to academics, policy makers, and scholars in the fields of banking, insurance, and finance.
Download or read book Wall Street Bank Involvement with Physical Commodities written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 1774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History written by Randall E. Parker and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to introduce readers to the important macroeconomic events of the past two hundred years. It explains what went on and why during the most significant economic epochs of the nineteenth, twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and how where we are today fits in this historical timeline.
Download or read book Handbook of Multi Commodity Markets and Products written by Andrea Roncoroni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-27 with total page 1076 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and ProductsOver recent decades, the marketplace has seen an increasing integration, not only among different types of commodity markets such as energy, agricultural, and metals, but also with financial markets. This trend raises important questions about how to identify and analyse opportunities in and manage risks of commodity products. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers traders, commodity brokers, and other professionals a practical and comprehensive manual that covers market structure and functioning, as well as the practice of trading across a wide range of commodity markets and products. Written in non-technical language, this important resource includes the information needed to begin to master the complexities of and to operate successfully in today’s challenging and fluctuating commodity marketplace. Designed as a practical practitioner-orientated resource, the book includes a detailed overview of key markets – oil, coal, electricity, emissions, weather, industrial metals, freight, agricultural and foreign exchange – and contains a set of tools for analysing, pricing and managing risk for the individual markets. Market features and the main functioning rules of the markets in question are presented, along with the structure of basic financial products and standardised deals. A range of vital topics such as stochastic and econometric modelling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, as well as risk assessment and management are presented and discussed in detail with illustrative examples to commodity markets. The authors showcase how to structure and manage both simple and more complex multi-commodity deals. Addressing the issues of profit-making and risk management, the book reveals how to exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies on a diversified set of commodity prices. In addition, the book explores how to price energy products and other commodities belonging to markets segmented across specific structural features. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products includes a wealth of proven methods and useful models that can be selected and developed in order to make appropriate estimations of the future evolution of prices and appropriate valuations of products. The authors additionally explore market risk issues and what measures of risk should be adopted for the purpose of accurately assessing exposure from multi-commodity portfolios. This vital resource offers the models, tools, strategies and general information commodity brokers and other professionals need to succeed in today’s highly competitive marketplace.
Download or read book Performance of Futures Markets written by Allen B. Paul and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Empirical Finance written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no denying the role of empirical research in finance and the remarkable progress of empirical techniques in this research field. This Special Issue focuses on the broad topic of “Empirical Finance” and includes novel empirical research associated with financial data. One example includes the application of novel empirical techniques, such as machine learning, data mining, wavelet transform, copula analysis, and TV-VAR, to financial data. The Special Issue includes contributions on empirical finance, such as algorithmic trading, market efficiency, market microstructure, portfolio theory and asset allocation, asset pricing models, liquidity risk premium, currency crisis, return predictability, and volatility modeling.
Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Download or read book Quantile Regression written by Roger Koenker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a unified statistical methodology for estimating models of conditional quantile functions. By complementing the exclusive focus of classical least squares regression on the conditional mean, quantile regression offers a systematic strategy for examining how covariates influence the location, scale and shape of the entire response distribution. This monograph is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, encompassing models that are linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric. The author has devoted more than 25 years of research to this topic. The methods in the analysis are illustrated with a variety of applications from economics, biology, ecology and finance. The treatment will find its core audiences in econometrics, statistics, and applied mathematics in addition to the disciplines cited above.
