Download or read book Quantification of Storm Surge Probability Using Ensemble Slosh Model Data written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the greatest hazards from hurricanes is the flooding due to storm surge. Emergency managers traditionally plan for storm surge by looking at the worst possible impact and design their plans accordingly. This is a safe course of action, but can also be a wasted expense if the worst case does not occur. Risk-based planning is a way to incorporate the likelihood or probability of an impact occurring into emergency planning. With respect to storm surge, though, there is very little information regarding probability of occurrence. This research uses data from a commonly accepted storm surge model, SLOSH from the National Weather Service, to develop probabilities of impact. The process and products are prototypes utilizing data from the 2007 SLOSH model run for the New Orleans basin. Products developed include a map of probability, probabilities of exceedance, and a list of model storms that generate surge at given locations.

Download or read book Coastal Flooding Storm Surge Model Methodology written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Assessment of Storm Surge Modeling written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge written by Rick Luettich and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-03-13 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge" that was published in JMSE

Download or read book Storm Surge Analysis written by United States. Army. Corps of Engineers and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Coastal Flooding Storm Surge Model User s guide written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Open coast Mathematical Storm Surge Model with Coastal Flooding for Louisiana written by John J. Wanstrath and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Storm Surge Measurements and Computations for Hurricane David written by Gary Lanier Howell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evaluation of Numerical Storm Surge Models written by United States. Army. Corps of Engineers. Committee on Tidal Hydraulics and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Reconstruction and Trend Analysis of Global Storm Surges Using a Data driven Approach written by Michael Getachew Tadesse and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Storm surge is the deadliest component of extreme sea levels with one of the highest global death tolls per event. Tide gauges are the primary sources for historical sea-level measurements from which storm surge data is extracted. However, tide gauges are unevenly distributed across the globe, and most records are short in length and have gaps; this creates a challenge to assess long-term trends and perform robust extreme value analysis. This dissertation introduces a data-driven storm surge modeling framework that trains statistical and machine learning models with atmospheric and oceanographic variables. Data-driven models (DDMs) are trained and validated for more than 800 tide gauges globally using datasets that are obtained from tide gauges, satellites, and atmospheric reanalyses. By forcing DDMs with five atmospheric reanalyses, a database of global daily maximum storm surge reconstructions (GSSR, http://gssr.info) is provided for 882 tide gauges covering the 1836-2019 period. The reconstruction datasets provide an opportunity to perform long-term trend analysis and robust extreme value analysis. However, some atmospheric reanalyses have inhomogeneities that translate to surge reconstructions, introducing spurious trends not reflected in observed surges. A Bayesian change point detection method has been applied to identify and remove spurious trends from GSSR surge reconstructions. It is shown in this dissertation, that after the change point analysis, GSSR provides several decades of additional reconstructed surge data in addition to what is already available from sea-level measurements. Utilizing the post-processed surge reconstructions, a long-term trend analysis of storm surge climate has been carried out globally, particularly with respect to the magnitude and frequency of storm surges. Trends are also separately computed for the satellite-era where all five GSSR reconstructions and observed surges overlap. It is shown that the use of ensemble surge reconstructions is advisable, if possible, rather than using a single reconstruction to account for uncertainties stemming from atmospheric reanalyses.

Download or read book Predicting Storm Surges Chaos Computational Intelligence Data Assimilation and Ensembles written by Michael Siek and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-16 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas in the world to avoid and mitigate its destructive impacts. For this purpose the physically-based (process) numerical models are typically utilized. However, in data-rich cases, one may use data-driven methods aiming at reconstructing the internal patterns of the modelled processes and relationships between the observed descriptive variables. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. First, some fundamentals of physical oceanography, nonlinear dynamics and chaos, computational intelligence and European operational storm surge models are covered. After that a number of improvements in building chaotic models are presented: nonlinear time series analysis, multi-step prediction, phase space dimensionality reduction, techniques dealing with incomplete time series, phase error correction, finding true neighbours, optimization of chaotic model, data assimilation and multi-model ensemble prediction. The major case study is surge prediction in the North Sea, with some tests on a Caribbean Sea case. The modelling results showed that the enhanced predictive chaotic models can serve as an efficient tool for accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictions of storm surges in order to support decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.

Download or read book Storm Surge Analysis Using Numerical and Statistical Techniques and Comparison with NWS Model SLOSH written by Manish Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis presents a technique for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge is the water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by almost 20 feet. Numerical modeling is an important tool used for storm surge forecast. Numerical model ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation model; Luettich et al, 1992) is used in this thesis for simulating hurricanes. A statistical technique, EST (Empirical Statistical Technique) is used to generate life cycle storm surge values from the simulated hurricanes. These two models have been applied to Freeport, TX. The thesis also compares the results with the model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is currently used for evacuation and planning. The present approach of classifying hurricanes according to their maximum sustained winds is analyzed. This approach is not found to applicable in all the cases and more research needs to be done. An alternate approach is suggested for hurricane storm surge estimation.

Download or read book A Computer Calculation and Display System for SLOSH Hurricane Surge Model Data written by John F. Townsend and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book SLOSH a Hurricane Storm Surge Forecast Model written by Chester P. Jelesnianski and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Joint Probabilities of Storm Surge Significant Wave Height and River Discharge Components of Coastal Flooding Events written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Use of Physically Based Models and Ensemble Forecasting for Storm Surge Risk Assessment in a Changing Climate written by Jeane Buban Camelo and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study also showed that at the end of the century, hurricanes may produce larger surge magnitudes in concentrated areas as opposed to surges that are lower in magnitude and widespread. One notable finding of this study is that there is no single storm property that dictates the magnitude of surge inundation. Even when these properties are considered together, the results are still difficult to anticipate without explicit numerical simulation. Due to dynamic hurricane properties, storm surge risk communication has been challenging. Despite communication changes from the National Hurricane Center, we have found that there is a lingering association between the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) and storm surge risk by the general public. However, findings suggest that although improving communication can indeed improve risk perception, it only addresses one component of a multidisciplinary system that defines storm surge risk. To be truly effective, resilience efforts will require multidisciplinary approaches.

Download or read book Understanding and Quantifying Storm Surge Risk and Developing Robust Risk Mitigation Strategies written by Robert L Ceres and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cities around the globe are contemplating costly strategies for managing storm surge risk. The overall effectiveness and success of these major infrastructure investments depends upon understanding at least three interrelated areas. First, stakeholders must identify and assess the future risk of storm surges and society's vulnerability to the full spectrum of those risks. Second, stakeholders need to evaluate a wide variety of storm surge risk mitigation strategies against this full spectrum of future risk. Third, policymakers must balance the benefits of risk mitigation against the large investments needed to implements them, as well as numerous other conflicting objectives and concerns of other stakeholders. Research described in this dissertation directly addresses each of these areas. First we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment and ask the simple and decision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential future storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? We quantify the time required to detect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events and estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects.Second, we develop a storm surge risk modeling framework, the Island City On a Wedge, to fill the niche between simple storm surge risk models incapable of simulating common characteristics of many coastal cities and complex modeling frameworks that are too computationally expensive to examine and optimize multiple combinations risk mitigation strategies. Using the Island City On a Wedge, we demonstrate that optimal risk mitigation solutions can change if the number of future states of the world, or time span over which the analysis is conducted changes. We couple the Island City On a Wedge to multiple objective evolutionary optimization algorithms and demonstrate the ability to assess storm surge risk and optimize complex risk mitigation strategies. We find that incorporating combinations of various defensive strategies can improve the financial effectiveness of risk mitigation investments.Lastly, we demonstrate the ability of the Island City On a Wedge to model storm surge risk in Manhattan and find Pareto optimal solutions balancing multiple stakeholder objectives and demonstrate the ability to effectively visualize the compromises inherent in any such trade off analysis.