Download or read book Putting the Parts Together Trade Vertical Linkages and Business Cycle Comovement written by Andrei A. Levchenko and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2009-08-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. We show that sector pairs that experience more bilateral trade exhibit stronger comovement. Vertical linkages in production are an important explanation behind this effect: bilateral international trade increases comovement significantly more in cross-border industry pairs that use each other as intermediate inputs. Our estimates imply that these vertical production linkages account for some 30% of the total impact of bilateral trade on the business cycle correlation.

Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Andrei A. Levchenko and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Trade Linkages and International Business Cycle Comovement Evidence from Korean Industry Data written by Dongyeol Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through the 2000s, Korea’s export and import linkages to advanced and emerging markets increased significantly. At the same time, the correlation of output growth between Korea and these economies rose. This paper investigates the nature of the link between trade linkages and the comovement of international business cycles (BC) using Korean industry-level domestic and international input-output data. The results suggest that, at the industry-level, higher export linkages lead to a larger positive GDP growth comovement, while higher import linkages lead to higher negative employment growth comovement. Furthermore, the decomposition of aggregate BC comovement shows that the increase in trade with China has contributed the most to aggregate BC comovement, while the impact of trade linkages on BC comovement is propagated domestically via vertical linkages. These findings suggest that the Korean economy can be significantly affected by a few countries that are highly linked through trade to Korea and/or a few industries that are highly interconnected to other industries.

Download or read book Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-10-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.

Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Download or read book Global Interdependence Decoupling and Recoupling written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013-11-15 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investigations of the propagation and influence of global shocks among the economies of developed and developing countries. One lens through which to view global economic interdependence and the spillover of shocks is that of decoupling (and then recoupling). Decoupling between developed and developing countries can be seen in the strong economic performance of China and India relative to that of the United States and Europe in the early 2000s. Recoupling then took place as developing countries sank along with the developed world during the deepening financial crisis of 2008. This volume examines patterns of global economic interdependence and the propagation of shocks in an increasingly integrated world economy. The contributors discuss such topics as the transmission of exogenous shocks; causes of business cycle synchronicity; the differences between global and regional shocks; the South-South trade relationship and its effect on decoupling; vertical specialization and Mexico's manufacturing exports; growth prospects in China, the United States, and Europe after the financial crisis; and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in international monetary architecture. Contributors Helge Berger, Rossella Calvi, Yin-Wong Cheung, Gianluca Cubadda, Justino De La Cruz, Filippo di Mauro, Michael Dooley, Eiji Fujii, Linda S. Goldberg, Barbara Guardabascio, Alain Hecq, Hideaki Hirata, Robert B. Koopman, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco J. Lombardi, Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark, Volker Nitsch, Christopher Otrok, Tuomas Antero Peltonen, Gabor Pula, Pierre L. Siklos, Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Frank Westermann

Download or read book The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of global supply chains has had profound effects on individual economies and the global trading system, thereby complicating standard macroeconomic analyses. For many of the new and challenging questions brought about by this phenomenon, such as its impact on the global business cycle and measurements of competitiveness, the answer largely depends on one specific aspect of global value chains: how easily they can re-configure in response to changes in prices. We propose a parsimonious, generalized specification to test the degree of global-supply-chain flexibility. Our estimates show that, in the short run, the production structure is highly inflexible, and that this rigidity has, if anything, risen over time as supply chains have deepened over time. This finding is robust to alternative price measures, including those that account for the U.S. dollar’s outsized role in trade through invoicing. While in the long run all estimated elasticities rise, supply chains remain somewhat inflexible. Our results have implications for analyses of cross-country business-cycle dynamics, the propagation of sectoral shocks, and the measurement of international competitiveness.

Download or read book World Trade Evolution written by Lili Yan Ing and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-08 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides theoretical and empirical evidence on how world trade evolves, how trade affects resource allocation, how trade competition affects productivity, how China shock affects world trade and how trade affects large and small countries. It is a useful reference which focuses on new approaches to international trade by looking into country-specific as well as firm-product level-specific cases.

Download or read book China and ASEAN Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission written by Mala Raghavan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-12 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the critical relationship between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) associated with its trade interdependency. As the largest trade partner in the region, China has not only presented itself with opportunities for ASEAN to tap its market, but also created great challenges for the region. The fundamental question that this book addresses, therefore, is whether China’s engagement with ASEAN comes at a cost for the latter following from the systemic risks tied to the China-centric supply chains in the region. The trade interactions between China and ASEAN, though extensively explored, are less understood in the context of its influence over the region amidst the recent changing dynamics that follow from China’s global engagement and backlash from major powers. The book therefore resolutely rises against stereotypes and clichés, making readers reconsider many oversimplified assumptions of the benefits of trade engagement where economies are interconnected through complex production chains.

Download or read book Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input Output Network Evidence from Korean Industries written by Dongyeol Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last two decades, manufacturing industries in Korea have become more concentrated, and interconnectedness across industries and to foreign countries has risen via vertical relationships and trade linkages. This paper investigates the transmission of economic shocks in such a highly concentrated and interconnected structure, focusing on the role of vertical and trade linkages and using the industry-level international input-output data. The results suggest that, first, the role of vertical and trade linkages in propagating growth shocks from both domestic sources and external sources is important. Second, the growth impact of a few key sources of economic shocks is relatively large. These findings highlight that economic shocks in a few key industries and/or major trading partners that are transmitted through vertical and trade linkages can lead to large swings in the overall economy. This paper contributes to the understanding of the potential interactions between the industrial structure and economic growth and stability.

Download or read book Collapse and Revival written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-20 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the debates about the recent global recession and the subsequent recovery have clearly shown, our understanding of these questions has been very limited. This comprehensive text puts the latest global recession and ongoing recovery in perspective. With the support of a companion website and DVD, we have created several multimedia tools to help understand the basics.

Download or read book Financial Regulation at the Crossroads written by Panagiotis Delimatsis and published by Kluwer Law International B.V.. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings outstanding expertise and provides insightful perspectives from nineteen authors with diverse backgrounds, including officials from international organizations, national regulators, and commercial banking, as well as academics in law, economics, political economy, and finance. The authors not only shed light on the causes of the financial turmoil, but also present thoughtful proposals that contribute to the future policy debate, and discuss opportunities that financial services can offer in funding activities which raise standards of living through initiatives in microfinance, renewable energy, and food distribution. The contributions to this volume tackle several of the thorniest issues of financial regulation in a post-crisis environment, such as: the mechanics of contagion within the financial system and the role of liquidity; moral hazard when large financial institutions are no longer subject to the disciplinary effects of bankruptcy; bank capital requirements; management compensation; design of bank resolution schemes; a function-centric versus institution-centric regulatory approach; subsidization and compatibility of stimulus packages with EU rules on state aid; trade finance and the role of the GATS prudential carve-out; and the role of financial services in promoting human rights or combating climate change.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book Where Are Global and U S Trade Heading in the Aftermath of the Trade Collapse Issues and Alternative Scenarios written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession written by Kei-Mu Yi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging Europe, and Asia hit hardest. Allowing demand to change in all countries simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results.

Download or read book The Economics of Interfirm Networks written by Tsutomu Watanabe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-02 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is one of the first comprehensive works to fill the knowledge gap resulting from the limited number of empirical studies on interfirm networks. The in-depth empirical research presented here is based on a massive transaction relationship database of approximately 400,000 Japanese firms. This volume, unlike others, focuses on the role of interfirm networks in three different fields: (1) macroeconomic activities, (2) economic geography and firm dynamics, and (3) firm–bank relationships. The database for this work is constructed in collaboration with Japan's largest credit research company, Teikoku Data Bank, and covers a substantial portion of Japanese firms with information on firms' transaction partners, shareholders, financial institutions, and other attributes, including their locations and performance. Networks prevail in many aspects of economic activities and play a major role in explaining a wide variety of economic phenomena from business cycles to knowledge spillovers, which has motivated economists to produce a number of excellent works. In the policy arena, there has been a growing concern on the vulnerabilities of networks based on the casual observation that idiosyncratic shocks on firms can be amplified through inter-firm connections and leads to a systemic crisis. Typical examples are the manufacturing supply-chain networks in the automobile and electronics industries which propagated regionally concentrated shocks (the Great East Japan Earthquake and floods in Thailand in 2011) into global ones. An abundance of theoretical literature on the formation and functions of networks is available already. This book breaks new ground, however, and provides an excellent opportunity for the reader to gain a more integrated understanding of the role of networks in the economy. The Economics of Interfirm Networks will be of special interest to economists and practitioners seeking empirical and quantitative knowledge on interfirm and firm–bank networks.

Download or read book Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade written by Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.