EBookClubs

Read Books & Download eBooks Full Online

EBookClubs

Read Books & Download eBooks Full Online

Book Provincial Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak an Overview of the Model BCMPB V2 and Draft Results of Year 2 of the Project

Download or read book Provincial Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak an Overview of the Model BCMPB V2 and Draft Results of Year 2 of the Project written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Stand level Effects of the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in the Central British Columbia Interior

Download or read book Stand level Effects of the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in the Central British Columbia Interior written by Chris Hawkins and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is part of a series of research papers that explore the biological, social, and economic aspects of British Columbia's mountain pine beetle epidemic. The purpose of this report is to examine document changes in stand characteristics of pine dominated stands following mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack and to assess the potential of stand development after MPB attack without management intervention.--Includes text from Government of Canada publications site and from document.

Book Temporal Composition and Structure of Post beetle Lodgepole Pine Stands

Download or read book Temporal Composition and Structure of Post beetle Lodgepole Pine Stands written by K. Runzer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A recent survey of mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack in mature and immature pine leading stands indicated that attack rate was a function of tree size, age and stand density. However, the temporal dynamics of MPB attack in mature and immature stands, as well as the release of the regeneration layer or secondary structure under a dying canopy, are poorly understood. The primary objectives of this study were to i) investigate temporal and spatial aspects of MPB attack, ii) investigate regeneration dynamics (mortality and growth) of post-beetle attack, iii) model growth and yield with actual mortality and regeneration metrics, iv) describe economic opportunities of harvest scheduling with respect to post-MPB stand structure and v) develop improved management and regeneration options."--Document.

Book Incorporating Present and Future Climatic Suitability Into Decision Support Tools to Predict Geographic Spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle

Download or read book Incorporating Present and Future Climatic Suitability Into Decision Support Tools to Predict Geographic Spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle written by Terence Leckie Shore and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main goal of this project was to adapt existing mountain pine beetle (MPB) decision-support tools to incorporate climatic suitability information to refine the spatial characterization of present climate and to support assessments of future climate. These tools include susceptibility and risk rating systems, the MPBSim stand-scale MPB population model, the landscape-scale SELES-MPB population model, and graph-based connectivity methods. We made significant advances on all of these, resulting in a suite of tools with increased capabilities and generality. During the course of this project, we also provided decisions support in the specific areas of study, in particular Dawson Creek and central-western Alberta. The basis of the climatic suitability was the work of A. Carroll et al. (2004) which produced estimates of MPB climatic suitability in five classes across western Canada, for historical, existing and future climates. Future climate information was derived from global circulation models such as the CGCM model. They input general climate information into the BioSim tool, in conjunction with topography and other variables relevant to downscaling for MPB, to produce the MPB climatic suitability maps. We used these maps to create an adaptation of the MPB susceptibility and risk rating system that replaced the coarser location factor (based on latitude, longitude and elevation) with MPB climatic suitability. It is important to note that the MPB climatic suitability refers only to climatic conditions relevant for MPB survival and reproduction, while the susceptibility rating system incorporates pine host information. We also modified MPBSim, a stand-scale population model, to utilize the MPB climatic suitability information. In previous applications, MPBSim was adapted to local conditions via a calibration process using local weather information. In some senses, this calibration process resulted in a reasonably precise adjustment to local conditions. However, it was also fairly labour intensive and didn't account as well for spatial variability. Our approach here was to use climatic suitability to both increase spatial precision as well as produce outputs that can be readily adapted to different stand and landscapes. The SELES-MPB landscape-scale population model scales MPBSim dynamics to broad spatial areas. We modified this tool to utilize the revised MPBSim output. This supports more rapid adaptation to other landscapes, as well as allows examination of potential effects of future climate. Our Dawson Creek analysis indicated that beetle management in the Dawson Creek area could significantly affect the spread and impact of the beetle outbreak over the next 10 years, provided that high levels of fell and burn and survey efforts are maintained. Estimated impacts are significantly affected by external pressure from the main outbreak, as estimated using the provincial-scale BCMPB projection. If mountain pine beetle populations can be held low until the main outbreak subsides (which will likely occur within the next five years due to availability of hosts), management should be able to curtail major losses in the Dawson Creek area. In areas with new or no current MPB attack, especially in areas within the expanding range, there is relatively high uncertainty of how the MPB may spread, such as in central-western Alberta. We developed graph-based connectivity methods to assess the spatial pattern of high susceptibility hosts across broad regions, under historic, existing or future climates. This information has been useful to help prioritize and rank stands for treatment in areas of imminent or future risk, and to identify areas for which treatment has no benefit.

Book Social Dimensions of Community Vulnerability to Mountain Pine Beetle

Download or read book Social Dimensions of Community Vulnerability to Mountain Pine Beetle written by Norah MacKendrick and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread recognition that the outbreak of mountain pine beetle (MPB) will have significant social & economic impacts on forest-based communities. This report presents the result of a vulnerability assessment in 11 British Columbia and two Alberta communities located in regions experiencing various levels of MPB activity. To assess community vulnerability, the project first builds a vulnerability framework based on social science research in the areas of climate change, community capacity, hazards management, and risk perception, as well as on focus group meetings in five of the studied communities. Variables & indicators included in this framework are then measured & combined into a vulnerability index, with index scores assigned to each community. The spatial variation in vulnerability is further illustrated using geographic information systems analysis. The final assessment reflects that vulnerability is not only a function of physical exposure to beetle activity but also of various social, economic, & political factors.

Book A Framework for Documenting the Effects of the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in Sub boreal Forests of Northern British Columbia E P 1369

Download or read book A Framework for Documenting the Effects of the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in Sub boreal Forests of Northern British Columbia E P 1369 written by Ben Heemskerk and published by University of British Columbia Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This report outlines the objectives, study design, methods of data collection, and other details relevant to the establishment of Experimental Project (EP) 1369: A Framework for Documenting the Effects of the Mountain Pine Beetle in Sub-boreal Forests of Northern British Columbia. In 1995 through 1997, 48 plots were established in mature pine leading stands affected by mountain pine beetle (MPB) (38 plots) and MPB followed by wildfire (10 plots). All plots will remain unharvested, and are designed to examine ecological changes subsequent to these disturbances. The information from these plots will inform science on what ecological changes result from these disturbances in the sub-boreal forest landscape, and will provide critical information (such as growth rate of live understorey) to land managers."--Document.

Book Dawson Creek Mountain Pine Beetle Spread Analysis

Download or read book Dawson Creek Mountain Pine Beetle Spread Analysis written by A. Fall and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is part of a series of research papers that explore the biological, social, and economic aspects of British Columbia's mountain pine beetle epidemic. The main purpose of this study was to apply and refine a model methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of landscape-scale bark beetle-management activities in reducing losses to mountain pine beetle, and to analyze the potential spread of the beetle across the study area. Specifically, the goal of this project was to address the question: what would be the likely trajectory and impacts from the current beetle outbreak under a range of alternative beetle-management regimes?

Book Landscape level Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia

Download or read book Landscape level Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia written by Brian H. Aukema and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity Cycle Period and Invasion Speed

Download or read book A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity Cycle Period and Invasion Speed written by Jacob P. Duncan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We devise analytical methods to predict outbreak severity and duration as well as outbreak return time. To assess the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, we develop a thermally-driven mechanistic model to predict MPB population growth rates using a distributional model of beetle phenology in conjunction with criteria for successful tree colonization. The model uses projected daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the years 2025 to 2085 generated by three separate global climate models. Growth rates are calculated each year for an area defined by latitude range 42℗ʻ N to 49℗ʻ N and longitude range 108℗ʻ W to 117℗ʻ W on a Cartesian grid of approximately 4km resolution. Using these growth rates, we analyze how the optimal thermal window for beetle development is changing with respect to elevation as a result of climate change induced warming. We also use our combined model to evaluate if thermal regimes exist that would promote life cycle bivoltinism and discuss how yearly growth rates would change as a result. Outbreaks of MPB are largely driven by host tree stand demographics and spatial effects of beetle dispersal. We augment the SIJ model to account for the spatial effects of MPB dispersal throughout a forest landscape by coupling it with a Gaussian redistribution kernel. The new model generates a train of sustained solitary waves of infestation that move through a forest with constant speed. We convert the resulting integrodifference equation into a partial differential equation and search for travelling wave solutions. The resulting differential equation provides predictions of the shape of an outbreak wave profile and of peak infestation as functions of wave speed, which can be calculated analytically. These results culminate in the derivation of an explicit formula for predicting the severity of an outbreak based on the net reproductive rate of MPB and host searching efficiency.

Book Using Reconstructed Outbreak Histories of Mountain Pine Beetle Fire and Climate to Predict the Risk of Future Outbreaks

Download or read book Using Reconstructed Outbreak Histories of Mountain Pine Beetle Fire and Climate to Predict the Risk of Future Outbreaks written by Kathy J. Lewis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a native bark beetle of forests in BC, and there is documented evidence of outbreaks dating back to 1910. The current outbreak is substantially larger than past documented outbreaks, but the temporal scale of landscape-level forest change is much longer than the limited scope of recorded history. It is possible that the scale of management-induced changes to forest structure through fire suppression and forestry practices, and the mounting evidence of a changing climate, have contributed to an outbreak that is well outside the natural range of variation. The purpose of this project is to determine the magnitude and synchrony of historical beetle outbreaks in sub-boreal forests of central BC, and to relate those with climate factors and changes in fire regimes. Our focus is on the north-central part of BC, in areas that in the past have been less conducive to large scale mountain pine beetle outbreaks and less influenced by fire suppression, to determine whether or not the current outbreak in this area is due to the enormous population build-up alone, or whether changes in climate and/or fire regime have played a role. Using dendroecological methods, we have successfully reconstructed multiple mountain pine beetle outbreaks and calibrated our detection methods based on historical survey information. Our investigation of climate/outbreak relationships is underway and suggests that the timing of outbreaks in this area can be linked to periods of favourable climate for mountain pine beetle population growth.

Book Modeling the Effects of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak and Potential Management Responses in Alberta s Eastern Slopes

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak and Potential Management Responses in Alberta s Eastern Slopes written by Richard Roland Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We used a simulation model and two management scenarios to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. The pine strategy seeks to reduce the number of susceptible pine stands by 75% over the next 20 years through targeted harvesting by the forest industry. Our simulations showed that the pine strategy could not be effectively implemented, even if the beetle outbreak was delayed for 20 years. Even though we increased mill capacity by 20% and directed all harvesting to high volume pine stands during the pine strategy's surge cut, the amount of highly susceptible pine was reduced by only 43%. Additional pine volume remained within mixed stands that were not targeted by the pine strategy. When the outbreak occurred in each scenario, sufficient pine remained on the landscape for the beetle to cause the timber supply to collapse. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.