Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Download or read book A Practitioner s Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Download or read book Projecting State and Local Populations written by Donald B. Pittenger and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book presents a comprehensive, detailed study of population forecasting techniques for subnational areas. It includes an analysis and projection of migration as well as numerous examples of analytical and forecasting techniques based on real data for actual localities. Fictitious data and simplified examples have been avoided. While Dr. Pittenger's study covers that range of methods used in the United States over the past 50 years, methods actually used during the 1970's are stressed"--Book jacket.
Download or read book Guide for Local Area Population Projections written by Richard Irwin and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Population Projections written by Paul R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Local Area Population Research and Federal Programs written by Richard A. Engels and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Population estimates are observed to play a central part in both the qualification of local areas for Federal programs and in the distribution of fiscal assistance funds. General Revenue Sharing is singled out as perhaps the most familiar and well supported program relying, at least in part, upon total population as a distribution mechanism. Local research resulting in population estimates is noted to have been adopted for use in such allocation systems for selected States. The Federal-State Cooperative Program for Local Population Estimates (FSCP) has strengthened these programs through joint State-Census Bureau efforts. It is speculated that similar arrangements may be possible for other currently active legislative programs based upon population characteristics. Contact with a newly formed FSCP subcommittee, a Census Bureau estimating methods research unit, or State-local cooperative groups emerging in some States are suggested potential avenues for local research to impact as many as 103 separate pieces of legislation depending upon some item of population information for operation of the program. Similar opportunities are identified for population projections. Although no legislation contains formal provisions for the use of projections to the degree now specified for current population estimates, projections are relied upon for the administration of programs in the Environmental Protection Agency and in the Department of Transportation. Other instances of projections used in planning applications are identified, as are the likely points of entry for local research work.
Download or read book Regional Population Projection Models written by Andrei Rogers and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1985-08 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.
Download or read book The Development and Use of State and Local Population Estimates and Projections written by Northern Virginia Population Study Committee. Regional Resources Division and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Population Dynamics and Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
Download or read book Making Projections of the Older Populations of Local Areas written by Kenneth George Keppel and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Population Change and the Economy Social Science Theories and Models written by Andrew M. Isserman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If the national government had based those funding decisions on locally prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U. S. Department of Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the intertwined nature of demographic and economic change. Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the U. S.
Download or read book Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques written by Michael R. Greenberg and published by Rutgers Univ Center for Urban. This book was released on 1978-01-01 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting populations, beyond fifteen years requires an encyclopedic knowledge of the national, regional, and local socioeconomic, political, and physical environments, combined with a large measure of imagination. Projections of this type are increasingly required by private and public decision-makers. The authors, who are top researchers in this area, have provided a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond the standard fifteen-year forecast. Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques presents a set of programmed models that project the populations of minor civil divisions (MCDs) up to fifty years and employment of counties up to twenty-five years. Three classes of MCD population models are presented, each of which is constrained at the county scale by county projections that are, constrained by state and national projections. The simplest model extrapolates a trend in the historical growth rates of MCDs, while a second method is based on the distributional properties of projections made by regional or county agencies. A procedure is provided for allocating the projections to an alternative set of spatial units. The second part of this book provides employment projection methods. Four models are presented: one is a simple regression model, and there are three step-down models: one of which is a constant share model; a second model weights the constant share projections by population projections; and a third includes a competitive component. In addition, each portion of the book contains three major pieces: an overview of available projection models; state, county, and, in the case of population projections, minor civil division models; computer programs, user's instructions, and the input and output of a sample problem.
Download or read book Guide for Local Area Population Projections written by Richard Irwin and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Use of Population Projections to Allocate Public Funds written by Norfleet W. Rives and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Component Method of Estimating and Projecting State and Subdivisional Populations written by James D. Tarver and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Population Projections Dueling Experts and Competition for Growth written by Edward J. Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In those places where plans are binding and are required to be coherent, the factual foundations of those plans, on which allocation of lands needed for housing, commerce and employment, are critical. Population projections are one foundation for determining needed lands and are necessary for consideration of alternative growth scenarios, rates of growth and selection of areas to be developed. Population projections are even more important in a system that purports to coordinate local and regional plans. As more jurisdictions undertake coordinated planning, a credible and uniform method of growth projections, including population projections, is necessary. Already, there are federal coordination expectations for housing and transportation grants in the United States. Such uniformity and coordination is standard fare in most European jurisdictions. This paper will present population projections as a symbol of the transition that most American states must deal with in providing a coherent coordinated growth program out of a system that left planning and regulation of land use almost entirely to local governments. Left to their own devices, local governments will often be guided by parochial considerations in undertaking growth projections. Experts can always be found to support almost any view. Growth-demanding governments will hire experts with rose-colored glasses while no-growth governments will stress physical and environmental constraints, pessimistic business projections and the like. Even when there is agreement in a multi-jurisdictional area, allocation of population (and thus of growth) is often hard fought. Most public agency projections will receive judicial deference if challenged. However while individual projections may be defensible, they may not always mesh to form a coherent whole. Moreover, when inconsistent projections are made by jurisdictions competing for growth, the planning system is faced with “dueling experts” and the result is confusion in the absence of an entity that is able to resolve conflicts. Even where there is such an entity, it is often caught in the middle and attempts to avoid controversy, to the detriment of coordinated planning. Related conflicts occur over competition among municipalities for planning, annexing, and urbanizing current rural lands. Without a clear, respected and authoritative process, conflict will continue. This paper will present the resolution of this conflict in Oregon, where coordinated planning has been in place for over forty years. One of the compromises necessary to achieve the establishment of the state system was to allow local governments to make population projections and for counties to “coordinate” population for the cities within the county and for its unincorporated areas. The result was unsatisfactory. First, there was no obligation for counties to justify their own population figures with overall state projections. Secondly, counties found it politically difficult to make hard decisions when the projections of the county and its cities did not match overall population projections for the county as a whole. After much strife and some stopgap solutions, the Oregon legislature adopted a dual solution. In the Portland Metropolitan Area, which has an elected regional governing body, a politically responsible body, the Metro Council, makes future population and growth allocations for the cities and counties in the region. The paper explains the peculiar dynamics of the Portland Metro Area, which lends itself to this approach. For the remainder of the state, cities and counties must accept those population projections made by Portland State University's Population Research Center, which has expertise and now the political responsibility to make binding projections. The decennial census required by the United States Constitution provides a reality check on state projections. Administrative rules now govern the specifics of projections made by the Center. Disputes over responsibility for population projections and the role of those projections on growth in a region or state over different visions of growth among local governments are not unique. As other states move to a model of coordinated state planning, attention to those issues will be helpful to a more expeditious resolution of these conflicts.
