Download or read book Projecting Mortality for All Countries written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New procedures for projecting mortality in each country modestly change previous mortality projections.
Download or read book A Method of Projecting Mortality Rates Based on Postwar International Experience written by Arthur A. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Epidemiological Transition written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1993-02-01 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines issues concerning how developing countries will have to prepare for demographic and epidemiologic change. Much of the current literature focuses on the prevalence of specific diseases and their economic consequences, but a need exists to consider the consequences of the epidemiological transition: the change in mortality patterns from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic and degenerative ones. Among the topics covered are the association between the health of children and adults, the strong orientation of many international health organizations toward infant and child health, and how the public and private sectors will need to address and confront the large-scale shifts in disease and demographic characteristics of populations in developing countries.
Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-02-28 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Download or read book Projecting Fertility for All Countries written by Eduard R. Bos and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Mortality 2019 Data Booklet written by United Nations and published by United Nations. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The data booklet presents key mortality indicators at the national, regional, and global level during 1950-2030. It highlights variations among countries in a number of mortality indicators: annual deaths; crude death rates; life expectancy at birth by sex; infant mortality; under-five mortality; and probabilities of dying from age 15 to age 60 and from birth to age 70. Estimates of mortality are complemented by information on the age distribution of deaths.
Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-24 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Download or read book Disease Control Priorities Third Edition Volume 2 written by Robert Black and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The evaluation of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) by the Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (DCP3) focuses on maternal conditions, childhood illness, and malnutrition. Specifically, the chapters address acute illness and undernutrition in children, principally under age 5. It also covers maternal mortality, morbidity, stillbirth, and influences to pregnancy and pre-pregnancy. Volume 3 focuses on developments since the publication of DCP2 and will also include the transition to older childhood, in particular, the overlap and commonality with the child development volume. The DCP3 evaluation of these conditions produced three key findings: 1. There is significant difficulty in measuring the burden of key conditions such as unintended pregnancy, unsafe abortion, nonsexually transmitted infections, infertility, and violence against women. 2. Investments in the continuum of care can have significant returns for improved and equitable access, health, poverty, and health systems. 3. There is a large difference in how RMNCH conditions affect different income groups; investments in RMNCH can lessen the disparity in terms of both health and financial risk.
Download or read book Global Estimates and Projections of Mortality by Cause 1970 2015 written by Rodolfo A. Bulatao and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High Income Countries written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-27 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages -- cancer and cardiovascular disease -- available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which -- unlike randomized controlled trials -- are subject to many biases.
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Download or read book Projections of the Population of Czechoslovakia by Age and Sex written by Arthur A. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1953 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Cancer Atlas written by Ahmedin Jemal and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This atlas illustrates the latest available data on the cancer epidemic, showing causes, stages of development, and prevalence rates of different types of cancers by gender, income group, and region. It also examines the cost of the disease, both in terms of health care and commercial interests, and the steps being taken to curb the epidemic, from research and screening to cancer management programs and health education.
Download or read book African Region Population Projections 1989 90 Edition written by Rodolfo A. Bulatao and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asia Region Population Projections written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
