Download or read book Project Risk Quantification written by John K. Hollmann and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

Download or read book Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis written by Dr David Hulett and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-09-28 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Download or read book Risk Analysis written by David Vose and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-28 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Download or read book Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-07-23 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error. In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

Download or read book Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction written by Amarjit Singh and published by ASCE Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singh introduces valuable techniques for weighing and evaluating alternatives in decision making with a focus on risk analysis for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks associated with construction projects.

Download or read book Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation written by Prince Boateng and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2017-04-28 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.

Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis written by Tim Bedford and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.

Download or read book Risk Management for Engineering Projects written by Nolberto Munier and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-29 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of engineering project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through: identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.); implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation; evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks and establishment of control measures. It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values on different project results, such as completion time, total costs, etc. Case studies and examples across a wide spectrum of engineering projects discuss such diverse factors as: safety; environmental impacts; societal reactions; time and cost overruns; quality control; legal issues; financial considerations; and political risk, making this suitable for undergraduates and graduates in grasping the fundamentals of risk management.

Download or read book Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis written by CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety) and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-08-27 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies. Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.

Download or read book Proactive Risk Management written by Guy M. Merritt and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-10-28 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Listed as one of the 30 Best Business Books of 2002 by Executive Book Summaries. Proactive Risk Management's unique approach provides a model of risk that is scalable to any size project or program and easily deployable into any product development or project management life cycle. It offers methods for identifying drivers (causes) of risks so you can manage root causes rather than the symptoms of risks. Providing you with an appropriate quantification of the key factors of a risk allows you to prioritize those risks without introducing errors that render the numbers meaningless. This book stands apart from much of the literature on project risk management in its practical, easy-to-use, fact-based approach to managing all of the risks associated with a project. The depth of actual how-to information and techniques provided here is not available anywhere else.

Download or read book Risk Modeling Assessment and Management written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.

Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Edward A. McBean and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-05-29 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the methodologies, typical mathematical notation, and assumptions used in risk assessment calculations Risk Assessment describes the methodologies, the math, and assumptions needed in risk assessment calculations and explores the various statistical analysis procedures that are used for estimating the parameters employed in risk assessment approaches. The author—a noted expert in the field—outlines a logical step-by-step approach to assessment: Identify a hazard; Analyze the risk associated with that hazard; and Determine if the elimination, or control of the risk is warranted. The text puts the focus on assessing environmental risk and describes the basics used in hypothesis testing to determine when there are differences in environmental quality at various locations. The author describes statistical techniques in approachable terms that are designed to be understandable to the non-statistician. The text downplays mathematical notation while offering clear explanations for the development of equations. It highlights applications with numerous examples of problems of censored data as they influence the use of alternative tests. In addition, the text focuses on both parametric and non-parametric procedures. This important resource: Describes in understandable terms the methodologies, typical mathematical notation, and assumptions used in risk assessment calculations Explores the fundamental calculation procedures and approaches for risk characterization Contains a wealth of example problems of interpretations of environmental monitoring results and shows how each procedure is used Includes problems at the end of each chapter that stress the fundamental concepts outlined Written for senior undergraduate and graduate students and as a course text in engineering, Risk Assessment offers a guide to the fundamental calculation procedures and methodologies for characterizing risk in clear and accessible terms.

Download or read book Measuring and Managing Information Risk written by Jack Freund and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2014-08-23 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the factor analysis of information risk (FAIR) methodology developed over ten years and adopted by corporations worldwide, Measuring and Managing Information Risk provides a proven and credible framework for understanding, measuring, and analyzing information risk of any size or complexity. Intended for organizations that need to either build a risk management program from the ground up or strengthen an existing one, this book provides a unique and fresh perspective on how to do a basic quantitative risk analysis. Covering such key areas as risk theory, risk calculation, scenario modeling, and communicating risk within the organization, Measuring and Managing Information Risk helps managers make better business decisions by understanding their organizational risk. Uses factor analysis of information risk (FAIR) as a methodology for measuring and managing risk in any organization. Carefully balances theory with practical applicability and relevant stories of successful implementation. Includes examples from a wide variety of businesses and situations presented in an accessible writing style.

Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.

Download or read book Project Risk Management Guidelines written by Dale Cooper and published by Wiley Global Education. This book was released on 2014-09-23 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of Project Risk Management Guidelines has been fully updated to include the new international standards, ISO 31000 Risk management and IEC 62198 Managing risk in projects. The book explains the standards and how they can be applied. It provides a clear introduction to basic project risk management, introduces the reader to specialized areas of projects and procurement, and shows how quantitative risk analysis methods can be used in large projects. Chapter by chapter, the authors present simple, practical steps and illustrate them with examples drawn from their extensive experience from around the world, in many different industry sectors and cultures and at all stages of projects from conception through development and into execution. Qualitative and quantitative approaches are covered. Traditional structures and processes are discussed as well as developments in the way projects are conducted, such as outsourcing arrangements and risk-sharing structures like public–private partnerships. Improved outcomes can be achieved when sound risk management is used to capture opportunities and reduce threats. Its unique focus and wealth of checklists, tables and other resources make this book an essential and enduring tool for anyone involved with project work.

Download or read book Implementing Enterprise Risk Management written by James Lam and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical, real-world guide for implementing enterprise risk management (ERM) programs into your organization Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a complex yet critical issue that all companies must deal with in the twenty-first century. Failure to properly manage risk continues to plague corporations around the world. ERM empowers risk professionals to balance risks with rewards and balance people with processes. But to master the numerous aspects of enterprise risk management, you must integrate it into the culture and operations of the business. No one knows this better than risk management expert James Lam, and now, with Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: From Methods to Applications, he distills more than thirty years' worth of experience in the field to give risk professionals a clear understanding of how to implement an enterprise risk management program for every business. Offers valuable insights on solving real-world business problems using ERM Effectively addresses how to develop specific ERM tools Contains a significant number of case studies to help with practical implementation of an ERM program While Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls, Second Edition focuses on the "what" of ERM, Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: From Methods to Applications will help you focus on the "how." Together, these two resources can help you meet the enterprise-wide risk management challenge head on—and succeed.

Download or read book The Owner s Role in Project Risk Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-02-25 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.