Download or read book Techniques for Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty written by Shlomo Reutlinger and published by Johns Hopkins University Press. This book was released on 1970 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.

Download or read book Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty written by Pankaj M. Madhani and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's business environment, traditional capital budgeting methods are no longer adequate to reflect the dynamic world of new economy. The typical project appraisal methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-based measures like Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). However, they exhibit weaknesses in dealing with uncertainty, complexity and flexibility. Real options are very powerful method for evaluating project under uncertainty. Real options approach is a method of evaluating project investment decisions in an uncertain business environment.

Download or read book Forecasting Uncertainty and Public Project Appraisal written by Jock R. Anderson and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.

Download or read book Investment Appraisal written by Uwe Götze and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-18 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to investment appraisal and presents a range of methods and models, some of which are not widely known, or at least not well covered by other textbooks. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Getting these decisions right is crucial but, due to a complex and dynamic business environment, this remains a challenging management task. Effective appraisal methods are valuable tools in supporting investment decision-making. As organisations continue to seek a competitive edge, it is increasingly important that management accountants and strategic decision-makers have a sound knowledge of these tools.

Download or read book Investment Appraisal Under Uncertainty Allowing for Corrections in Project Variables written by Stephen Robert Harrison and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Evaluation of Risk in Business Investment written by J.C. Hull and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides finance specialists in industry and students of management with a comprehensive set of practical procedures for evaluating the total risk in the major capital investment decisions facing a business. It discusses in detail how companies can make effective use of sensitivity analyses, risk simulations and other techniques, and deals in depth with important issues, such as: How should the results of a sensitivity analysis be interpreted?; How can adequate subjective probability distributions be obtained? How can dependencies between variables be dealt with in a practical way?; The emphasis throughout is on 'how to do it' and the reader needs only a slight knowledge of statistics. A particularly important feature of the book is the FORTRAN subroutines in Appendices A and B which the author prepared for calculating risk evaluations

Download or read book Investment Appraisal Under Uncertainty Allowing for Correlations in Project Variables written by Stephen Robert Harrison and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Appraisal Risk and Uncertainty written by Nigel J. Smith and published by Thomas Telford. This book was released on 2003-11-28 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Projects need to achieve strategic goals and to that end must work in different levels of uncertainty. Engineers must be aware of methods to operate in ambiguous situations. This book offers one of the first integrated approaches to these three topics based on the views of experts in these disciplines.

Download or read book Engineering Project Appraisal written by Martin Rogers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-07-03 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In most cases of civil engineering development, a range of alternative schemes meeting project goals are feasible, so some form of evaluation must be carried out to select the most appropriate to take forward. Evaluation criteria usually include the economic, environmental and social contexts of a project as well as the engineering challenges, so engineers must be familiar with the processes and tools used. The second edition of Engineering Project Appraisal equips students with the understanding and analytical tools to carry out effective appraisals of alternative development schemes, using both economic and non-economic criteria. The building blocks of economic appraisal are covered early, leading to techniques such as net present worth, internal rate of return and annual worth. Cost Benefit Analysis is dealt with in detail, together with related methods such as Cost Effectiveness and the Goal Achievement Matrix. The text also details three multi-criteria models which have proved useful in the evaluation of proposals in the transportation, solid waste, energy and water resources fields: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and Concordance Analysis. There is a full discussion dealing with risk and uncertainty in these models. With many worked examples and case studies, Engineering Project Appraisal is an essential text for both undergraduate and postgraduate students on professional civil engineering courses, and it is expected that students on planning and construction management courses will find it a valuable addition to their reading.

Download or read book Taxmann s Project Appraisal Management Case Study based Text explaining all aspects of a Project from Inception to Implementation for Professionals Entrepreneurs written by Prof. Rashmi Agrawal & Dr. Yogieta S Mehra and published by Taxmann Publications Private Limited. This book was released on 2021-06-17 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a comprehensive & well-illustrated textbook on ‘Project Appraisal & Management’. It provides comprehensive coverage of the prescribed syllabus at both postgraduate and undergraduate level of all major universities of India. This book will be helpful for postgraduate and undergraduate courses in Management and specifically for the students of MBA/M.Com./BMS/BBA/Generic Paper of B.Com. (Hons.) The Present Publication is the Reprint June 2021 Edition, authored by Prof. Rashmi Agarwal & Dr. Yogieta S. Mehra, with the following noteworthy features: · [Case Studies] Each chapter begins and ends with a real Case Study, (both successful & failed ones are included) for illustrating the application of theoretical aspects in practical corporate life · [Ready Reckoner] for professionals, budding entrepreneurs, dreamers, and start-up enthusiast · [Questions] for review are provided at the end of every chapter · [Illustrations] in every chapter to explain the concepts in a lucid manner · [Checklists] for starting a New Business and preparation of Project Reports & Business Plan The flow of the book is as follows: · Chapters 1 – 4 provides the entire ‘feasibility analysis’ to assess the viability of a project · Chapters 5 – 7 are focused on impact analysis, i.e., economic, environmental & social analysis · Chapters 9 – 11 are dedicated to all the probable entrepreneurs who seek to know more about the essentials for starting a new venture The contents of the book are as follows: · An Introduction to Project Appraisal o Project Appraisal: An Introduction o Project Appraisal Process: Steps o Project Appraisal Methodology o Project Life Cycle o Origin of Project Appraisal o Development Planning and Project Appraisal · Identification of Investment Opportunities and Market Analysis o Case Study: Patanjali Ayurved o Introduction – Market Analysis o Business Ideas o Market Feasibility Analysis o Understanding the Market o Estimating Market Size o Industry Structure o Managing Competition o Forecasting Market Growth o Develop the Sales and Marketing Plan o Digital Marketing: The New Frontier · Technical Analysis o Case Study: A Techpreneur’s Guide to Success – Shiv Nadar o Introduction – Technical Analysis o Technical Appraisal Decision Tool of the Project o The Lender’s Analysis o Key Aspects of Technology o Impact of Technology on Management of Firms · Investment Appraisal: Introduction and Techniques o Case Study: Why the King of Good Times Flew Away o Introduction – Financial Analysis o Investment Decisions & Development Planning o Financial Feasibility Analysis o Investment Decision Criteria o Concept of Time in Financial Appraisal o Investment Decision Techniques o Inter-Relationship Between NPV, BCR and IRR o Financial Feasibility Analysis o Types of Contracts o Lender’s Perspective: Appraisal of Financial Viability · Economic Analysis o Case Study: Solar Parks o Introduction: Economic Analysis o Objectives of Economic Analysis o Rationale of Social Cost-Benefit Analysis o Direct and Indirect Cost and Benefits o Shadow Price o Choice of Discount Rate o Dealing with Uncertainty o Efficiency and Equity in Project Appraisal o Institutional Framework o UNIDO Method for Social Cost-Benefit Analysis o Little Mirrlees Approach for SCBA o Indian Scenario · Environmental Analysis o Case Study: EIA of Building a Hospital Project o Introduction – Environment Analysis o Physical Manifestation of Environment Degradation o Environmental Attributes for a Project o Environment Impact Assessment o EIA and Project Life Cycle o Environmental Considerations and Discount Rate o Economic Valuation of Natural Resources o Resource Allocation o Approaches for Value Measurements · Socio-Economic Analysis o Case Study: Patna Ghats o Introduction – Social Impact Assessment o Environmental and Social Impact Assessment o Progress of SIA o Principles for Social Impact Assessment o Social Impact Assessment Methods and Tools o The SIA Process and Report o Advantages – Social Impact Assessment · Risk and Sensitivity Analysis o Case Study PAYTM: Vijay Shekhar Sharma o Introduction – Risk and Uncertainty Analysis o Uncertainty Analysis o Risk Analysis o Project Selection under Risk o Monitoring and Control of Investment Projects · Entrepreneurship Case Study: Kent RO o Introduction: Entrepreneurship o Entrepreneurship Model and Traits o Theoretical Approaches of Entrepreneurship o Entrepreneurship: The Global Scenario · New Venture: Elements for Success o Case Study: Naturally Sweet Success Story o Introduction o Creativity o Motivation for Creative Ideas and Entrepreneurship o Barriers to Creativity o Techniques to Enhance Creativity o Strategic Planning and the Entrepreneur o Franchising · Formation of a New Venture o Introduction o Financing Options for a New Venture o What is a Start-up o Checklist for Starting New Business in India o Government Initiatives for Start-ups in India o Checklist for Preparation of Project Reports and Business Plan

Download or read book Evaluating real options as a means for investment appraisal under uncertainty and its degree of utilisation by companies written by Andreas Würfel and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2003-10-13 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper evaluates the real options approach (ROA) as a means for appraising capital investments under uncertainty. Globalisation and growing competitiveness have led to an increase in uncertainty with regard to companies decision making. Flexibility to react to this uncertainty has become more important. The question arises whether there is a need for a further investment appraisal technique or whether traditional techniques can cope with that. A growing literature about real options shows that traditional investment appraisal techniques do not value flexibility. That is why ROA has become more important within recent years. However, the degree of its utilisation by companies seems to be rather low. Three possible reasons for that are examined: ROA is not well-known by companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises. ROA is only limitedly applicable. ROA is too difficult to use. After traditional investment appraisal techniques have been outlined, the real options approach is illustrated by means of a case study. The possible range of application is assessed by reviewing the literature. A survey was conducted to check whether companies know about or apply that technique, and to identify the tools used by companies. This study shows that while the range of possible applications of real options is rather vast, ROA is rarely known by German and British companies and barely applied. One reason might be, that most books and articles are of rather academic nature. This seems to have been realised since books with a focus on practical application have been published recently. The complexity of ROA seems to be a further reason for its low degree of utilisation. Companies tend to use simpler but more comprehensible techniques although these methods have some major drawbacks. However, business science should not end in itself but serve businesses. Therefore, further emphasis has to be put on making real options approachable for practitioners. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: I.Abstract2 II.Acknowledgements3 III.Table of Contents4 IV.List of Figures7 V.List of Abbreviations8 1.Introduction9 2.Characteristics of Investment Decisions11 2.1What Is a Capital Investment?11 2.2Risk and Uncertainty12 3.Tools for Investment Appraisals15 3.1Static Methods15 3.2Discounted Cash Flow Approaches (Dynamic)17 3.3Approaches Which Try to Deal With Risk20 4.The Real Options Approach24 4.1Why Use Real Options to [...]

Download or read book Uncertainty and the Discrepancy between Rate ofReturn Estimates at Project Appraisal and Project Completion written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Early Project Appraisal written by K. Samset and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-08-11 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focusing on turning an initial idea into a project with a successful outcome, this book fills a gap in current literature on project management and is thoroughly grounded in the latest research in this field. It emphasizes the practical application of decision making based on qualitative and judgmental information.

Download or read book Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty written by Chris Chapman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-11 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.

Download or read book Investment Appraisal written by Uwe Götze and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-22 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a range of investment appraisal methods and models to help readers make good investment decisions. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated, and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Getting investment decisions right is crucial but due to a complex and dynamic business environment this remains a challenging management task.

Download or read book Uncertainty and the Discrepancy Between Rate of return Estimates at Project Appraisal and Project Completion written by Gerhard Pohl and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1991 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This statistical survey of more than 1,000 World Bank projects reveals a sharp divergence between estimated rates of return at appraisal and at project completion. Traditional methods of project evaluation and selection have been unable to reduce the high degree of uncertainty associated with project analysis.

Download or read book Handling Severe Uncertainty in Strategic Project Appraisal written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: