Download or read book Production shocks exports and market prices An analysis of the rice sector in Myanmar written by Dorosh, Paul and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2019-04-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar’s rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar’s rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar’s rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

Download or read book Production Shocks Exports and Market Prices written by Paul Dorosh and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar's rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar's rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar's rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

Download or read book Rice productivity in Myanmar Assessment of the 2021 monsoon and outlook for 2022 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze rice input and productivity data for the monsoon seasons of 2020 and 2021 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS). The survey covers plots of 2,672 rice producers, spread over 259 townships in all states/regions of the country. We find that: 1. Rice productivity at the national level during the monsoon of 2021 decreased on average by 2.1 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. Considering estimated area reductions, national paddy production decreased by 3.4 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. 2. Some areas performed substantially worse. Rice yields were low and declined significantly in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states that have shown the highest levels of food insecurity in recent assessments. 3. Prices for most inputs used in rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 56 percent on average and mechanization costs increased by 19 percent. 4. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 8 percent, significantly less than input prices, squeezing rice farmers’ profits during the monsoon of 2021. Despite the substantial hurdles in production and marketing due to the political crisis and international market developments, the results of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey show the overall resilience of rice production during the monsoon of 2021. While the rice sector has been a source of stability in the country, the situation for future crop seasons is however concerning given further increases in input prices (especially fertilizer), the overall reduced profitability of rice farming, the reduced coping strategies remaining for rice farmers, and currency policy changes by the military government.

Download or read book The Rice Crisis written by David Dawe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations

Download or read book Conflict inclusivity and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2024-04-29 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explores the transformation of Myanmar’s rice value chain (VC) over a period of liberalization, reform, and infrastructure expansion from 2013 to 2019, and over a period of multiple crises from 2020 to 2022 including a military coup and widespread conflict. We analyze modernization over these periods at different levels of the VC, including upstream (farms), midstream (mills), and downstream (rice vendors). We rely upon unique data from large-scale phone surveys collected at different segments of the rice value chain – including farm and post-farmgate – complemented with insights from key informant interviews, and secondary data. The major findings are the following: There have been large transformations within the rice value chain over the last decade, but modernization in some areas decelerated due to conflict. We note a process of modernization, upscaling, quality improvements, and increased outsourcing of agricultural activities to specialized service providers by farmers. The majority of this transformation occurred during the period of relative stability from 2013 to 2019. We show that although modernization continued during the crisis years that followed, including an improvement in rice quality and an expansion of modern mills, many modernization processes decelerated. Mills and farms in insecure and conflict-affected areas participated to a lesser extent and the modernization gaps widened during the crisis years. Local rice market conditions improved with better-quality rice sold locally. A large share of food vendors indicated better rice quality overall at the time of survey compared to 3 and 10 years earlier. Sixty-eight percent of vendors reported that there was no foreign matter in the rice that they sold a decade ago. That share has increased by 23 percentage points to 91 percent in 2022. In domestic retail, modern retail is (yet) negligible in rice distribution at the national level. Rice exports quadrupled, with Myanmar becoming globally the 5th biggest exporter of rice by the end of 2019. Rice exports have proven to be resilient during the crisis years. Rice exports increased dramatically despite more stringent, and costly, non-tariff measures for exports such as phyto-sanitary requirements. Rice is exported through different channels, moving away from low-quality rice trucked to China, to relatively better-quality and often certified rice being shipped on large vessels to a more diverse set of countries. We see shifting challenges over time – due to banking, electricity, and mobility problems that millers and traders adjusted to, at an increasing cost – but national exports mostly stabilized, in the crisis years compared to the period before, seemingly as major rice producing areas - except Sagaing - were less affected by conflicts, Midstream, we see rapid uptake and investments in modern drying machines – especially mechanized dryers – and modern milling machinery in the form of new mill starts and upgrading from traditional mills. The average number of modern mills operating in the miller’s same village tract/ward increased by about 60 percent from 2013 to 2019 and by a further 10 percent in 2022. The trend for traditional mills is the opposite: declining by 50 percent between 2013 and 2019 and a further 15 percent in 2022. This modernization has been driven by local firm investments as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been limited. Upstream (at the farm level), we note a substantial expansion of modern input use. Rice seed markets have become more active in the 2010s. The sale of branded rice seeds doubled over the last decade. Chemical fertilizer use also increased over the last decade. While use was lower in 2022 than before the crisis, they were still at a higher level than a decade earlier. We also see increased use of modern harvest and post-harvest technologies and more outsourcing of harvest and post-harvest activities, mostly linked to these modern technologies and practices. In 2022, 54 percent of the farmers reported to have used a combine-harvester on most rice plots. Farmers hiring in tractors increased by 33 percentage points over the last decade. Outsourcing drying services has also increased, but the growth has been more modest: 22 percent of the farmers indicated that they outsourced the drying of paddy. Modern dryer use increased accordingly. We find significant negative relationships between severe local conflict and many modernization outcomes. Severe conflict is found to negatively impact various modernization aspects, notably the adoption of tractor services and modern dryers at the farm level, and the prevalence of modern mills and drying equipment in midstream operations. Modernization has not been everywhere inclusive. More remote and smaller firms are participating less in modern practices. More remote farmers show smaller growth in adoption of combine harvesters, modern dryers, and modern mills, while smaller farmers have smaller growth in the use of combine harvesters and drying service providers. In the midstream, mills in remote areas show smaller changes in the share of modern mills in their areas, while smaller mills have significantly slower growth in modern service provision and lower investment rates in value-added machinery. For many of these modernization outcomes, the gaps across firm size and remoteness widened during the crisis years. Our findings point to three main implications for the modernization of Myanmar’s rice VC. Private-market oriented reform leads to rapid modernization in VCs, while heavy intervention – e.g., low reference prices for rice; limits on intranational trade; control of imports and exports through an export licensing system; and currency manipulation through a dual exchange rate system – may jeopardize VC modernization and increase uncertainty throughout VCs. More inclusive transformation should be promoted. Smaller and more remote farms and mills are showing slower growth across many modernization outcomes, raising concerns about livelihood improvements for those participating less in the VC’s modernization. Conflict negatively affects modernization at the farm and VC midstream. The study reaffirms the crucial need for stable political and economic environments to foster effective agricultural growth and transformation.

Download or read book Agri food trade in Myanmar Its role in Myanmar s future economic takeoff written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-10 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agri-food exports are important for Myanmar’s economic takeoff, in particular for the transformation of agri-food systems. This paper analyzes the past performance of key agri-food exports and assess their role and future potential to contribute to the transformation of Myanmar’s agri-food system and the overall economy.

Download or read book Agricultural value chains in a fragile state The case of rice in Myanmar written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-28 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nearly one-quarter of the global population lives in fragile states. Yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for reducing global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. This paper analyzes Myanmar’s rice value chain–its most important staple crop and largest value chain–during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. It relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. Despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup, such as banking and transport, rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to a major shock. While processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare costs of almost USD 500 million. Using a market-pair regression method, we find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from international borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. Despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions, stabilizing fuel prices, and facilitating safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and improve welfare.

Download or read book Impact of Contract Farming on Income Linking small farmers Packers and Supermarkets in China written by Sachiko Miyata, Nicholas Minot, and Dinghuan Hu and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study compares contract and non-contract growers of apples and green onions in Shandong Province, China in order to explore the constraints on participation and the impact of contract farming on income. We find little evidence that firms prefer to work with larger farms, though all farms in the area are quite small. Using a Heckman selection-correction model, we find that contract farming raises income even after controlling for observable and unobservable household characteristics. These results suggest that contract farming can help raise small-farm income, though questions remain regarding the number of farmers that can be brought into such schemes.

Download or read book The State of Food and Agriculture 2021 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-11-23 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerability of agrifood systems to shocks and stresses and led to increased global food insecurity and malnutrition. Action is needed to make agrifood systems more resilient, efficient, sustainable and inclusive. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021 presents country-level indicators of the resilience of agrifood systems. The indicators measure the robustness of primary production and food availability, as well as physical and economic access to food. They can thus help assess the capacity of national agrifood systems to absorb shocks and stresses, a key aspect of resilience. The report analyses the vulnerabilities of food supply chains and how rural households cope with risks and shocks. It discusses options to minimize trade-offs that building resilience may have with efficiency and inclusivity. The aim is to offer guidance on policies to enhance food supply chain resilience, support livelihoods in the agrifood system and, in the face of disruption, ensure sustainable access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to all.

Download or read book Effects of COVID 19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea s food economy A multi market simulation analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021 2030 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-07-05 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.

Download or read book Assessing agricultural trade comparative advantage of Myanmar and its main competitors Findings from UN Comtrade written by Zhang, Huaqi and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2019-04-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to provide a better understanding of Myanmar’s agricultural export performance against its competitors in different regions and determine the policy actions for improving Myanmar’s export performance. The normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index is computed to compare the agricultural competitiveness between Myanmar and its competitors from 2007 to 2016. The results show that: 1) Myanmar’s agricultural export sector enjoys comparative advantage in the global market, but it is not competitive when compared with its major competitors; 2) Myanmar reveals a high level of NRCAs in black gram & pigeon peas, natural rubber, sesame seeds, rice, and frozen fish, while it has low NRCAs in crustaceans and dried fruits; and reveals no comparative advantage in bananas, fish fillets, maize, nuts, and watermelon in certain years. Three major policy implications are drawn, including diversifying Myanmar’s export portfolio, strengthening export promotion and development, and attracting foreign direct investment to upgrade the cross-border value chain.

Download or read book Lao People s Democratic Republic written by Paavo Eliste and published by Fao. This book was released on 2012 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The results of this study confirm the continuing structural transformation of the Lao rice sector which started a decade ago. To some extent, the sector transformations being led by inter related factors not strictly related to government rice sector policies, including: (i) continued GDP growth led by mineral and hydropower exports; (ii) increasing job opportunities in the non-tradable, non-agricultural sector, and in neighboring countries, associated with increasing incomes; (iii) increasing shortages of farm labour and an ageing farm population; (iv) increasing urbanization and related changes in food consumption patterns; and (v) stabilization of aggregate national rice consumption as a result of a declining population growth rate and gradual diversification of diets away from rice as a source of calories. Furthermore, emergence of new private sector driven export crops. The current situation, which decouples rice sector-related government policies between farm and post-farm, each governed by different sector line ministries, may no longer be efficient. The growth in the number of commercially-oriented rice farmers as shown by the 2010 agriculture census data means that investments in further productivity improvements need to be well articulated with measures to sustain a sound market environment and this has trade policy implications."--Publisher's description.

Download or read book The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security 2021 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-03-17 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.

Download or read book Improving Rice Production and Commercialization in Cambodia written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambodia has a potential advantage in agricultural production due to significant amounts of fertile land and high levels of agricultural employment, but rice production and commercialization remain well below potential. This study uses a farm investment climate assessment to provide evidence on key areas where government investments and policy reforms can lead to higher levels of rice production and commercialization in small farms. Improving output markets through domestic milling and increasing the area irrigated are found to be related to increased production efficiency, commercialization, rice sold, and value of sales.

Download or read book Economic Development of Myanmar written by Myat Thein and published by Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This book was released on 2004 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are a number of excellent studies by eminent Myanmar economists as well as scholars from abroad covering different post-war periods and/or various aspects of development in Myanmar. What this book does is to bring them altogether, as it were, under one roof by recasting bits and pieces of their work according to the author’s own understanding. In doing so, a holistic approach was adopted in order to have a well-rounded account of developments over the past fifty years or more. In addition, an attempt has also been made to present the major developments at different periods of time between 1948 and 2000 in a simple, but not over simplified, reader-friendly format so as to reach as wide an audience as possible. It is the author’s ardent wish that not only students and policy-makers, but Myanmar people in all walks of life will read the book, discuss it, and work together for a better future.

Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.