Download or read book Probability Models of Collective Decision Making written by Richard G. Niemi and published by Merrill Publishing Company. This book was released on 1972 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Probality Analysis of Voting Blocs and the Occurence of the Paradox of Voting written by Bo H. Bjurulf and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Download or read book Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory written by J. Kacprzyk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.
Download or read book Individual and Small Group Decisions written by K.J. Radford and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ecision making is one of the most important activities in both our profes D sional and our private lives today. The literature on the subject has grown considerably over the last fifty years and it now covers many different approaches to the subject. These approaches range from that of creating a mathematical model of the decision situation under consideration, as in operations research and other forms of mathematical decision analysis, to those that are based on human and organizational behavior. Recently, those working in the field have begun to combine approaches to the study of decision situations that arise in organizations, in our personal lives and in the communities in which we live. This book is an attempt to assist those concerned with decision making to work with this combination of approaches. In the past, decision problems have been considered according to the condi tions under which they arise and to some extent in terms of the approaches available for their resolution. Writers on the subject who are mathematically oriented have devised a method of classifying decisions based on the type of mathematics that they suggest be used in the resolution of the problems. This approach leads to the division of decision situations into the categories of cer tainty, uncertainty, risk and competition. Deterministic models available in oper ations research have then been offered as the means of treating decision situations in the category of certainty.
Download or read book Collective Decision Making written by Norman Schofield and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade the techniques of social choice theory, game theory and positive political theory have been combined in interesting ways so as to pro vide a common framework for analyzing the behavior of a developed political economy. Social choice theory itself grew out of the innovative attempts by Ken neth Arrow (1951) and Duncan Black (1948, 1958) to extend the range of economic theory in order to deal with collective decision-making over public goods. Later work, by William Baumol (1952), and James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (1962), focussed on providing an "economic" interpretation of democratic institutions. In the same period Anthony Downs (1957) sought to model representative democracy and elections while William Riker (1962) made use of work in cooperative game theory (by John von Neumann and Oscar Morgenstern, 1944) to study coalition behavior. In my view, these "rational choice" analyses of collective decision-making have their antecedents in the arguments of Adam Smith (1759, 1776), James Madison (1787) and the Marquis de Condorcet (1785) about the "design" of political institutions. In the introductory chapter to this volume I briefly describe how some of the current normative and positive aspects of social choice date back to these earlier writers.
Download or read book Collective Decision Making written by Shmuel Nitzan and published by CUP Archive. This book was released on 1985-11-28 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an economic approach to the study of collective decision making. In Social Choice theory, the main problem of collective decision making is normally conceived of as one of aggregating diverse individual preferences. However, in practice, objectives are often common to the individuals - whether, for instance, in the firm, or where a medical diagnosis is required - but the information available to each individual, and their ability to utilise that information optimally, differ. The authors therefore deal with a different problem of decisional skills aggregation assuming homogeneous preferences but differing decisional skills, and develop a framework for the study of collective decision making. They examine the effect of the size of the decision making body; incomplete information on decisional skills; interdependence among decisions; shadow prices of decision rules; and of decision making costs and benefits on optimal group decision making. The model is then illustrated in a range of different fields, including industrial organisation, labour economics and in the design of consulting schemes, medical diagnostic systems, and corporate law.
Download or read book Behavioral Social Choice written by Michel Regenwetter and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-05-15 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral Social Choice looks at the probabilistic foundations of collective decision-making rules. The authors challenge much of the existing theoretical wisdom about social choice processes, and seek to restore faith in the possibility of democratic decision-making. In particular, they argue that worries about the supposed prevalence of majority rule cycles that would preclude groups from reaching a final decision about what alternative they prefer have been greatly overstated. In practice, majority rule can be expected to work well in most real-world settings. They provide new insights into how alternative model specifications can change our estimates of social orderings.
Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions written by Roger B. Myerson and published by Duxbury Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.
Download or read book Understanding Collective Decision Making written by Lasse Gerrits and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the main challenges facing contemporary society is to understand how people can make decisions together. Understanding Collective Decision Making builds on evolutionary theories and presents an analytical tool to analyse and visualise collective decision making. By combining theoretical research with real world case studies, the authors provide a coherent and conclusive solution to the often fragmented and dispersed literature on the subject.
Download or read book Preferences and Decisions written by Salvatore Greco and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-05 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making is an omnipresent, most crucial activity of the human being, and also of virtually all artificial broadly perceived “intelligent” systems that try to mimic human behavior, reasoning and choice processes. It is quite obvious that such a relevance of decision making had triggered vast research effort on its very essence, and attempts to develop tools and techniques which would make it possible to somehow mimic human decision making related acts, even to automate decision making processes that had been so far reserved for the human beings. The roots of those attempts at a scientific analysis can be traced to the ancient times but – clearly – they have gained momentum in the recent 50 or 100 years following a general boom in science. Depending on the field of science, decision making can be viewed in different ways. The most general view can be that decision making boils down to some cognitive, mental process(es) that lead to the selection of an option or a course of action among several alternatives. Then, looking in a deeper way, from a psychological perspective this process proceeds in the context of a set of needs, preferences, rational choice of an individual, a group of individuals, or even an organization. From a cognitive perspective, the decision making process proceeds in the context of various interactions with the environment.
Download or read book Modeling Decision Making Considering Collective Versus Individual Interests in Public Health written by Eduardo Massad and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Objective. The objective of this work is to examine decision making in public health, considering the conflict between collective and individual interests.Study design. This is a theoretical work in which a mathematical model is proposed.Methods. Here we propose a mathematical model of decision-making that takes this conflict into account. The model assumes that the probability of deciding in favor of preventive or curative actions depends on the ratio of acceptance/compliance, as calculated for opportunity costs and benefits. Results. The model shows that the perceived fairness of the action increases as its acceptance increases relative to its compliance. Conflict is generated by the tension between acceptance and compliance and turns decision making into a difficult task.Conclusions. The acceptance of a public health action increases as its personal cost decreases relative to its perceived social benefits. On the other hand, compliance with the action increases as the perceived social cost increases relative to personal benefits.
Download or read book Voting and Collective Decision Making written by Annick Laruelle and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-09-11 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day thousands of decisions are made by all kinds of committees, parliaments, councils and boards by a 'yes-no' voting process. Sometimes a committee can only accept or reject the proposals submitted to it for a decision. On other occasions, committee members have the possibility of modifying the proposal and bargaining an agreement prior to the vote. In either case, what rule should be used if each member acts on behalf of a different-sized group? It seems intuitively clear that if the groups are of different sizes then a symmetric rule (e.g. the simple majority or unanimity) is not suitable. The question then arises of what voting rule should be used. Voting and Collective Decision-Making addresses this and other issues through a study of the theory of bargaining and voting power, showing how it applies to real decision-making contexts.
Download or read book Probability Models written by John Haigh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-07-04 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise. Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded for the second edition. Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Models is designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.
Download or read book Models of Collective Decision making written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probabilistic Voting Theory written by Peter J. Coughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992-10-30 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.
Download or read book Advances in Collective Decision Making written by Sascha Kurz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-04 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents research on recent developments in collective decision-making. With contributions from leading scholars from a variety of disciplines, it provides an up-to-date overview of applications in social choice theory, welfare economics, and industrial organization. The contributions address, amongst others, topics such as measuring power, the manipulability of collective decisions, and experimental approaches. Applications range from analysis of the complicated institutional rules of the European Union to responsibility-based allocation of cartel damages or the design of webpage rankings. With its interdisciplinary focus, the book seeks to bridge the gap between different disciplinary approaches by pointing to open questions that can only be resolved through collaborative efforts.
