Download or read book Probability Distributions of Crop Yields written by A. Ford Ramsey and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability distributions of crop yields are important for understanding technological change, the effects of weather on crop production, and production risk. It can be difficult to model these distributions because they are time-varying and do not follow a particular parametric form. To overcome some of the empirical challenges inherent in yield modeling, we implement a Bayesian spatial quantile regression model for the conditional distribution of yields. The statistical model is semiparametric, borrows information across space and quantile level, and models the complete quantile process. We use the model in two empirical applications where flexible modeling of the yield distribution is essential. First, we evaluate the effects of weather across quantiles and conduct a Bayesian test of the difference in the rate of technological change at opposite ends of the yield distribution. We then derive crop insurance premium rates and compare the predictive performance of the Bayesian spatial quantile regression to other existing approaches for modeling time-varying yield distributions.
Download or read book Forecasting World Crop Yields as Probability Distributions written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk in Agriculture written by Narsi Reddy Gayam and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: (cont.) This result has important implications for managing risk involving sugarcane and soybeans grown in India. The last section of this thesis examines the impact of crop yield non normality on various insurance programs, which typically assume that all crop yields are normally distributed and that the probability of crop failure can be calculated given available data.
Download or read book Crop Yield Distributions Revisited written by Octavio A. Ramirez and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article revisits the issue of crop-yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation, and testing procedures that address the concerns raised in recent literature, which could have invalidated previous findings of yield nonnormality. It concludes that some aggregate and farm-level yield distributions are nonnormal, kurtotic, and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. The advantages of utilizing nonnormal versus normal probability distribution function models, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming crop-yield normality are explored.
Download or read book Research Bulletin written by Massachusetts Agricultural Experiment Station and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crop Yield Distributions Revisited written by Octavio A. Ramirez and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article revisits the issue of crop-yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation, and testing procedures that address the concerns raised in recent literature, which could have invalidated previous findings of yield nonnormality. It concludes that some aggregate and farm-level yield distributions are nonnormal, kurtotic, and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. The advantages of utilizing nonnormal versus normal probability distribution function models, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming crop-yield normality are explored.
Download or read book Methods to Simulate Distributions of Crop yields Based on Farmer Interviews written by Ulrich Maerz and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Analysis of Alternative Crop Yield Coverage Plans for Multiple Peril Crop Insurance written by Gerald Toland and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000 Climate model and technical appendixes written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000 without special title written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out Of Sample Likelihood Functions written by Bailey Norwood and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields.
Download or read book Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out of Sample Likelihood Functions written by F. Bailey Norwood and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields.
Download or read book Ranking Crop Yield Models written by Octavio A. Ramirez and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comment discusses key specification issues that may have affected the performance and, therefore, the ranking of parametric models that were compared in a recent AJAE article. A procedure to obtain the most flexible parametric model specification possible, given the particular probability distribution function on which the model is based is presented. These specifications also allow for standardized and, therefore, more valid comparisons across parametric models that are based on different probability distributions. Finally, the comment cautions against generalization of the rankings in that AJAE article and recommends that these more flexible specifications be adopted in future comparisons and applications.
Download or read book Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Crop Production Using a Cross Entropy Method written by Liangzhi You and Stanley Wood and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2012 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While agricultural production statistics are reported on a geopolitical - often national - basis we often need to know the status of production or productivity within specific sub-regions, watersheds, or agro-ecological zones. Such re-aggregations are typically made using expert judgments or simple area-weighting rules. We describe a new, entropy-based approach to making spatially disaggregated assessments of the distribution of crop production. Using this approach tabular crop production statistics are blended judiciously with an array of other secondary data to assess the production of specific crops within individual "pixels" - typically 25 to 100 square kilometers in size. The information utilized includes crop production statistics, farming system characteristics, satellite-derived land cover data, biophysical crop suitability assessments, and population density. An application is presented in which Brazilian state level production statistics are used to generate pixel level crop production data for eight crops. To validate the spatial allocation we aggregated the pixel estimates to obtain synthetic estimates of municipio level production in Brazil, and compared those estimates with actual municipio statistics. The approach produced extremely promising results. We then examined the robustness of these results compared to short-cut approaches to spatializing crop production statistics and showed that, while computationally intensive, the cross-entropy method does provide more reliable estimates of crop production patterns.
Download or read book Staff Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Weather and Yield 1950 94 written by Lloyd D. Teigen and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000 written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
